2012 Regression Candidates

[FedEx227]

.000 BABIP

But I thought he had a high BABIP whenever he got at-bats?!?!

[NAHSTE]

Starlin Castro has 6 walks in 240 plate appearances. OBP is down 20 points despite BA staying nearly identical.

[EmpireWF]

You called Castro, let's see about the others...

Kemp was on pace to have an absolute monster season with well over 50 HR before his injuries.

Bonifacio's AVG/OBP/SLG have dropped but his other numbers are still solid. 19 R, 3 3B, 20 SB after 39 games.

Morse hasn't played, so you get that one so far.

Doug Fister, no way he was matching his 8-1, 1.79 ERA, .84 WHIP year. SO's are down, walks are up as are hits and home runs allowed.

Mat Latos, home runs are up as predicted (almost 3x as high as last season if he keeps this pace).


So, 4 out of 6 ain't bad.

[NAHSTE]

You called Castro, let's see about the others...

Kemp was on pace to have an absolute monster season with well over 50 HR before his injuries.

Bonifacio's AVG/OBP/SLG have dropped but his other numbers are still solid. 19 R, 3 3B, 20 SB after 39 games.

Morse hasn't played, so you get that one so far.

Doug Fister, no way he was matching his 8-1, 1.79 ERA, .84 WHIP year. SO's are down, walks are up as are hits and home runs allowed.

Mat Latos, home runs are up as predicted (almost 3x as high as last season if he keeps this pace).


So, 4 out of 6 ain't bad.

In 18 plate appearances he's only slugging .375 (small sample size, of course)

[Leftwich]

In 18 plate appearances he's only slugging .375 (small sample size, of course)

Let it go bro.

[strahanfan92]

Here's the regression thread.

[Woy]

Kyle Lohse.

NICE PICK DUDE :leake:

#smallsamplesizes

STILL A NICE PICK DUDE :leake:

#muchlargersamplesizes

[Villain]

Kemp's OPS+ is 14 points higher than last season.

 

Last season he lead all hitters in OPS+

[FedEx227]

[NAHSTE]

Kemp's OPS+ is 14 points higher than last season.

 

Last season he lead all hitters in OPS+

Yeah, his HR/FB rate is up from his career high last year also.

[NAHSTE]

One more thing while we're here...

Instead of facepalm gifs, you could explain how you believe Castro is going to regress.


Where do you see him at stats wise? I see 300 average, 20 HRs, 15 SBs, 200 hits. I wouldn't call that regression.

[MVPete]

Hitters:

- Starlin Castro will have a subpar season. High contact, average dependent hitter. Will also continue to get worse at SS.

- Matt Kemp's power will go back to normal. 27-32 bombs for him, not 40, and definitely not 50.

- Emilio Bonifacio. Why? Because, Emilio Bonifacio.

- Michael Morse. Obvious BABIP outlier is obvious.


Pitchers

- Fister and the three fatties will be a bad situation in Detroit. His ERA could double.



***warning: :dtrain: baiting to Reds fans below***

- Tat Latos will give up a ton of home runs. He will remain a good pitcher, but he'll be high strikeout, high flyball guy which could lead to problems with that river wind in Cincy. Let's face it, he's a rich man's Anibal Sanchez at this point.

One more thing while we're here...

This was a pretty terrible post too.

[Slateman]

Morse is hitting .300/.325/.478 since he came off the DL. Slight regression in power, 4 point increase in BABIP (1 point higher than his career BABIP). I'm going to chalk the drop in power as due to his injury earlier. In the second half, he's hitting .311/.340/.526

Anyone have Peter Bourjos as a regression candidate? Cus he hasn't been good. Then again, he doesn't really get playing time.

[NAHSTE]

Mat Latos is 9th in the NL and 20th in baseball in HR/9. So at least I got one right.

:dtrain:

[EmpireWF]

Didn't know it was possible but Jason Bay regressed even more in 2012.

Imagine if he makes the team next year.