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Dan Szymborski | Baseball Think Factory
A few years ago, it looked plainly clear that White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko was entering the closing stages of a solid career, but one that only briefly touched stardom. Finishing with 400 home runs and playing for 15 years isn't the stuff of legend and it doesn't result in becoming the namesake of many awards, but it's a better career than the vast majority of players have in them. Even for a former first-rounder and top prospect, it certainly would be grossly unfair to deem a disappointment.
After a fairly normal career and what appeared to be a fairly typical decline cycle, Paul Konerko instead spent his mid-30s trashing the aging curve. It's hard enough to shake a label that you earn in your mid-20s, so changing it a whole decade later is a tough challenge. Jose Bautista managed it a few years ago, but he was still in his 20s. Barry Bonds had a marvelous run in his late 30s -- putting the issue of chemicals aside for another time -- but he was already a superstar and an easy Hall of Famer, so it didn't fundamentally change what we thought of him as a player.
Konerko's late-career renaissance hasn't stopped at simply bringing back his prime years of his late 20s, but actually pushed him to a level he never achieved as a younger player. Since entering 2010 with a career .277/.352/.491 mark, Konerko's hit .315/.398/.560, an improvement easily clearing 100 points of OPS. Even more impressive, he's played this much better in a league in which offense has dropped in recent years, almost as if he's singlehandedly trying to preserve baseball's high octane 1993-2009 years.
So, just how unusual is Konerko's improvement? And does it make him Hall of Fame worthy?
To get an idea, I went back through baseball history and tried to find a group of players similar in ability to Konerko, choosing all first basemen and corner outfielders with five points of OPS+ (baseball-reference.com's measure of park-neutral OBP and SLG relative to league-average) and within 100 homers through age 33. Twenty seven players popped up, all of whom shared similar characteristics to Konerko in that they were all good sluggers who played for a long time and generally didn't come within shouting distance of a plaque in Cooperstown.
Missed the cut
PLAYER BA/OBP/SLG
(up to age 33) OPS+ BA/OBP/SLG
(Age 34-36) OPS+ OPS+ Difference
Paul Konerko .277/.352/.491 116 .315/.398/.560 155 +39
Chili Davis .267/.346/.432 117 .306/.408/.521 138 +21
Harold Baines .286/.345/.457 120 .303/.385/.513 131 +11
Don Baylor .264/.340/.434 119 .267/.345/.472 126 +7
Pat Burrell .254/.362/.475 116 .230/.352/.404 115 -1
Dusty Baker .282/.346/.442 117 .269/.359/.405 115 -2
Tino Martinez .274/.343/.481 113 .266/.350/.442 109 -4
Jeff Burroughs .261/.355/.440 121 .257/.366/.429 114 -7
Dave Kingman .237/.306/.493 119 .243/.306/.446 111 -8
Jeromy Burnitz .252/.356/.482 116 .261/.327/.492 106 -10
Carlos Lee .291/.344/.503 117 .266/.321/.428 105 -12
Greg Vaughn .246/.337/.479 116 .226/.335/.434 101 -15
Ron Gant .257/.333/.471 115 .256/.350/.457 100 -15
Leon Wagner .272/.340/.462 121 .265/.352/.332 105 -16
Shawn Green .282/.355/.499 121 .291/.352/.430 103 -18
Cliff Floyd .279/.359/.488 121 .272/.356/.428 103 -18
Aubrey Huff .283/.345/.476 116 .237/.305/.359 89 -27
Kevin McReynolds .266/.328/.449 116 .256/.328/.406 91 -25
Tony Clark .268/.343/.494 116 .228/.318/.415 86 -30
George Scott .271/.335/.441 117 .243/.310/.383 85 -32
Del Ennis .285/.341/.474 117 .231/.272/.343 69 -48
Raul Mondesi .275/.332/.488 115 .211/.271/.359 63 -52
Dick Stuart .265/.318/.492 118 .157/.204/.255 31 -87
Johnny Callison .266/.334/.446 116 .176/.197/.228 22 -94
Richie Sexson .261/.344/.507 120 ---------- -- --
Jesse Barfield .256/.335/.466 117 ---------- -- --
Geoff Jenkins .275/.344/.490 114 ---------- -- --
George Bell .278/.316/.469 113 ---------- -- --
As you would expect from a group of players entering their mid-30s, the Konerko comps generally declined from their career numbers and quite precipitously. Of the 25 players listed who have retired (Carlos Lee and Aubrey Huff are still active), 15 of the group (60 percent) were completely out of baseball by what would have been their age-37 season. A few didn't even make it to their age-34 seasons as major leaguers. In all, just three players in the group, Chili Davis, Harold Baines, and Don Baylor, hit better in their mid-30s than they did earlier in their careers. Only Davis' improvement was even in the same time zone as Konerko's improvement so far, a 21-point of OPS+ improvement compared to Konerko's 39-point surge.
For 2012, Konerko stands at .366/.445/.617, numbers that if maintained, would easily be the best of his career and enough to win an MVP award, if not for you-know-who playing in the Texas Rangers outfield. It's probably unrealistic to expect that level over the rest of the season, but even if he hits at a more typical, 2011-esque level as the ZiPS projection system projects, that still leaves him with a .322/.403/.557 final line, every bit as good as his then-shocking 2010 season (.312/.393/.584).
Thanks to the last few years, you have now started to hear some rumblings about Konerko making the Hall of Fame, something that would have frankly sounded a little ridiculous in the past. To see just how much that career trajectory has changed, I projected Konerko's final career line twice using the ZiPS projection system, once with his performance through now and once with only his performance through 2009. Through 2009, ZiPS projected Konerko to finish with 460 homers, 1,503 RBIs, and a .268/.341/.467 line (.808 OPS). In a world in which the voters have not even deigned to let Jeff Bagwell in, that line clearly falls short.
As of Tuesday morning, Konerko's ZiPS career projection has improved to a .281/.356/.494 line (.850 OPS), with 502 homers and 1,628 RBIs. Suddenly, his case looks a little more interesting. It's enough to get Konerko into the top 30 all-time in homers and just a hair lower in RBIs. What's more is voters have tended to be kinder to players whose stardom is fresher in their minds -- Tim Raines might be closer to the Hall if the memories of his 1980s superstardom hadn't given away to the memories of him being merely an excellent part-timer in the '90s. Konerko has also not failed a drug test to date nor been the subject of enhancement-related whispers and innuendo.
Will Konerko make the Hall of Fame? Probably not. There are simply too many great players ahead of him and with the coming ballot crunch, it's hard to imagine 75 percent of the electorate finding room for Konerko on their ballots. Still, the fact that he's even gotten to the point of being in the conversation has been an impressive tale. Who doesn't love a good story of man trying to thwart fate?
A few years ago, it looked plainly clear that White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko was entering the closing stages of a solid career, but one that only briefly touched stardom. Finishing with 400 home runs and playing for 15 years isn't the stuff of legend and it doesn't result in becoming the namesake of many awards, but it's a better career than the vast majority of players have in them. Even for a former first-rounder and top prospect, it certainly would be grossly unfair to deem a disappointment.
After a fairly normal career and what appeared to be a fairly typical decline cycle, Paul Konerko instead spent his mid-30s trashing the aging curve. It's hard enough to shake a label that you earn in your mid-20s, so changing it a whole decade later is a tough challenge. Jose Bautista managed it a few years ago, but he was still in his 20s. Barry Bonds had a marvelous run in his late 30s -- putting the issue of chemicals aside for another time -- but he was already a superstar and an easy Hall of Famer, so it didn't fundamentally change what we thought of him as a player.
Konerko's late-career renaissance hasn't stopped at simply bringing back his prime years of his late 20s, but actually pushed him to a level he never achieved as a younger player. Since entering 2010 with a career .277/.352/.491 mark, Konerko's hit .315/.398/.560, an improvement easily clearing 100 points of OPS. Even more impressive, he's played this much better in a league in which offense has dropped in recent years, almost as if he's singlehandedly trying to preserve baseball's high octane 1993-2009 years.
So, just how unusual is Konerko's improvement? And does it make him Hall of Fame worthy?
To get an idea, I went back through baseball history and tried to find a group of players similar in ability to Konerko, choosing all first basemen and corner outfielders with five points of OPS+ (baseball-reference.com's measure of park-neutral OBP and SLG relative to league-average) and within 100 homers through age 33. Twenty seven players popped up, all of whom shared similar characteristics to Konerko in that they were all good sluggers who played for a long time and generally didn't come within shouting distance of a plaque in Cooperstown.
Missed the cut
PLAYER BA/OBP/SLG
(up to age 33) OPS+ BA/OBP/SLG
(Age 34-36) OPS+ OPS+ Difference
Paul Konerko .277/.352/.491 116 .315/.398/.560 155 +39
Chili Davis .267/.346/.432 117 .306/.408/.521 138 +21
Harold Baines .286/.345/.457 120 .303/.385/.513 131 +11
Don Baylor .264/.340/.434 119 .267/.345/.472 126 +7
Pat Burrell .254/.362/.475 116 .230/.352/.404 115 -1
Dusty Baker .282/.346/.442 117 .269/.359/.405 115 -2
Tino Martinez .274/.343/.481 113 .266/.350/.442 109 -4
Jeff Burroughs .261/.355/.440 121 .257/.366/.429 114 -7
Dave Kingman .237/.306/.493 119 .243/.306/.446 111 -8
Jeromy Burnitz .252/.356/.482 116 .261/.327/.492 106 -10
Carlos Lee .291/.344/.503 117 .266/.321/.428 105 -12
Greg Vaughn .246/.337/.479 116 .226/.335/.434 101 -15
Ron Gant .257/.333/.471 115 .256/.350/.457 100 -15
Leon Wagner .272/.340/.462 121 .265/.352/.332 105 -16
Shawn Green .282/.355/.499 121 .291/.352/.430 103 -18
Cliff Floyd .279/.359/.488 121 .272/.356/.428 103 -18
Aubrey Huff .283/.345/.476 116 .237/.305/.359 89 -27
Kevin McReynolds .266/.328/.449 116 .256/.328/.406 91 -25
Tony Clark .268/.343/.494 116 .228/.318/.415 86 -30
George Scott .271/.335/.441 117 .243/.310/.383 85 -32
Del Ennis .285/.341/.474 117 .231/.272/.343 69 -48
Raul Mondesi .275/.332/.488 115 .211/.271/.359 63 -52
Dick Stuart .265/.318/.492 118 .157/.204/.255 31 -87
Johnny Callison .266/.334/.446 116 .176/.197/.228 22 -94
Richie Sexson .261/.344/.507 120 ---------- -- --
Jesse Barfield .256/.335/.466 117 ---------- -- --
Geoff Jenkins .275/.344/.490 114 ---------- -- --
George Bell .278/.316/.469 113 ---------- -- --
As you would expect from a group of players entering their mid-30s, the Konerko comps generally declined from their career numbers and quite precipitously. Of the 25 players listed who have retired (Carlos Lee and Aubrey Huff are still active), 15 of the group (60 percent) were completely out of baseball by what would have been their age-37 season. A few didn't even make it to their age-34 seasons as major leaguers. In all, just three players in the group, Chili Davis, Harold Baines, and Don Baylor, hit better in their mid-30s than they did earlier in their careers. Only Davis' improvement was even in the same time zone as Konerko's improvement so far, a 21-point of OPS+ improvement compared to Konerko's 39-point surge.
For 2012, Konerko stands at .366/.445/.617, numbers that if maintained, would easily be the best of his career and enough to win an MVP award, if not for you-know-who playing in the Texas Rangers outfield. It's probably unrealistic to expect that level over the rest of the season, but even if he hits at a more typical, 2011-esque level as the ZiPS projection system projects, that still leaves him with a .322/.403/.557 final line, every bit as good as his then-shocking 2010 season (.312/.393/.584).
Thanks to the last few years, you have now started to hear some rumblings about Konerko making the Hall of Fame, something that would have frankly sounded a little ridiculous in the past. To see just how much that career trajectory has changed, I projected Konerko's final career line twice using the ZiPS projection system, once with his performance through now and once with only his performance through 2009. Through 2009, ZiPS projected Konerko to finish with 460 homers, 1,503 RBIs, and a .268/.341/.467 line (.808 OPS). In a world in which the voters have not even deigned to let Jeff Bagwell in, that line clearly falls short.
As of Tuesday morning, Konerko's ZiPS career projection has improved to a .281/.356/.494 line (.850 OPS), with 502 homers and 1,628 RBIs. Suddenly, his case looks a little more interesting. It's enough to get Konerko into the top 30 all-time in homers and just a hair lower in RBIs. What's more is voters have tended to be kinder to players whose stardom is fresher in their minds -- Tim Raines might be closer to the Hall if the memories of his 1980s superstardom hadn't given away to the memories of him being merely an excellent part-timer in the '90s. Konerko has also not failed a drug test to date nor been the subject of enhancement-related whispers and innuendo.
Will Konerko make the Hall of Fame? Probably not. There are simply too many great players ahead of him and with the coming ballot crunch, it's hard to imagine 75 percent of the electorate finding room for Konerko on their ballots. Still, the fact that he's even gotten to the point of being in the conversation has been an impressive tale. Who doesn't love a good story of man trying to thwart fate?
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