MLB Random Thoughts - [7/30 - 8/5]

[Tailback U]

Thanks for this, Obst Heyman.

Difference between Giants fans and Phillies fans:

Giants fans: good luck to schierholtz I think he will do well in Philly and I wish him the best.

Philly fans: lol @ giants fans cheering for pence I can't wait until he sucks and they realize he is mentally retarded.

No surprise really. Typical asshat Philly fan.

[Woy]

He might still frustrate at me at times (swinging at pitches in the dirt to K, for instance), but GOOD LAWD Matt Holliday is on a tear right now.

[strahanfan92]

Matt Holliday back in Colorado

Josh Rutledge is a stud.

[NAHSTE]

[MVPete]

Thought this was interesting:

Giants right fielders are hitting .268/.349/.432. Hunter Pence is hitting .271/.336/.447. Factor in that Pence was plying his trade in Philadelphia and now has to go to a tougher hitters' park, it's possible the Giants won't be getting better production from right field, especially when you factor in that Pence is a defensive downgrade fromGregor Blanco and Nate Schierholtz. Now, that doesn't mean Pence won't help the Giants. It's possible the Giants weren't going to continue getting that kind of production from right field. Or they can slide Blanco over to center to spell Angel Pagan. The larger point is that Pence mostly just maintains what the Giants have received so far from right field.

Shane Victorino looks like a bigger upgrade for the Dodgers. He's hitting .261/.324/.401, which isn't great but is better than the Dodgers' current left-field line of .256/.326/.345. Plus, he should be a big defensive upgrade over Bobby Abreu andJuan Rivera.

ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski ran the deadline trades through his ZiPS projection systemand how the trades increased each team's playoff chances. He has the Dodgers' chances improving 15.4 percent, the Giants' chances dropping 0.7 percent and the D-backs' chances dropping 6.5 percent.

[Warner2BruceTD]

If there is a metric that determines Gregor Blanco is a better option than Hunter Pence, then that metric is broken.

[MVPete]

If there is a metric that determines Gregor Blanco is a better option than Hunter Pence, then that metric is broken.

No metric needed. Use the eye test.

[Warner2BruceTD]

Is $18M completely unreasonable for a .500 SLG, .820 OPS, with above average OF defense?

Only one year left, too. Surprised nobody bit.

[NAHSTE]

Is $18M completely unreasonable for a .500 SLG, .820 OPS, with above average OF defense?

Only one year left, too. Surprised nobody bit.

WUT

[Warner2BruceTD]

WUT

check the stats man, according to a lot of them his defense is very much above average this season

[Tailback U]

Thought this was interesting:

FWIW:

http://www.baycityball.com/2012/08/01/on-hunter-pences-power/

On Hunter Pence’s power
BY CHRIS QUICK, ON AUGUST 1ST, 2012

One of the concerns about adding any hitter to AT&T Park is how that player’s power will translate and now that the Giants have traded for Hunter Pence, I think that’s a question that’s on everyone’s mind. So, with that question in mind, let’s look at a few numbers.

First, let’s take a look at some park factors. According to StatCorner, AT&T Park has the following park factors:

PARK FACTORS (LHB / RHB)
K: 104 101 nB: 92 97
gbH: 98 96 ofH: 103 102
1B: 99 100 GB: 106 106
2/3B: 98 96 FB: 96 95
HR: 66 88 LD: 96 96
Runs: 77 91 IF: 86 93

A park factor score of exactly 100 indicates a neutral park. A PF score of greater than 100 indicates a park that is favorable to hitters; below 100 indicates a park that is favorable to pitchers. As expected, AT&T Park is mighty hard on left-handed power. Running down the PF list, the Giants’ homepark largely plays at neutral for right-handed batters. The park suppresses homeruns for righties (88 PF), but not nearly as much as it does for lefties (66 PF). So, that’s the good news for the Giants: righties will see a dip in power – when using HR as our measure – but it’s nothing like lefties have to deal with.

Here’s Pence’s hit chart, years 2009-2012:




I’ve included home runs, doubles, and triples in the hit chart. As you can see, most of Pence’s power is of the pull variety; though, he does have some home runs to right field. Pence’s power is predominately to his pull field and up-the-middle. Data from Baseball-Reference confirms this.

Split PA H 2B 3B HR
Pulled-RHB 632 286 54 1 58
Up Mdle-RHB 1568 513 85 27 57
Opp Fld-RHB 423 143 33 0 16

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/1/2012.

That’s Pence’s 2B, 3B, and HR totals by hit location. Of Pence’s 131 career home runs, 58 of them (44.2%) have been pulled; 57 of them (43.5%) have been up-the-middle; and just 16 of them (12.2%) have been opposite field shots.

So, all things considered, Pence should continue to hit for power at AT&T as long as he’s pulling the ball and using the same general approach that he’s shown over his career thus far. He’s going to lose the ability to hit the ball out of the opposite field, but it was never a huge part of his game to begin with anyways. It’s also worth mentioning that Citizen Bank Park’s PF for HRs for right-handed batters is (101) – essentially a neutral park for righties to hit homers in. Pence is likely to lose a few home runs per year while playing in AT&T, but for the Giants he appears to be a good hitter-type to add into the mix: the right-handed pull hitter with power. Unlike left-handed batters, Pence is less likely to be affected by AT&T Park’s spacious dimensions.

In 20 career games in San Francisco, Pence has hit .329 with five home runs and 10 RBI in 76 at-bats at AT&T Park.

It will take him some time to settle in like it takes everyone, especially at AT&T. But I like the move. The Giants desperately needed a bat and they really didn't give up much since Schierholtz rarely starts and Joseph is the 3rd best catcher in the organization.

[NAHSTE]

check the stats man, according to a lot of them his defense is very much above average this season

Not gonna trust half a season of defensive "data" when we don't even know if a year's worth is ever accurate.

He has always been a brutal defender. Anyway, even if you are right and he has been above passable, we're still just talking about LF.

[Warner2BruceTD]

Hunter Pence vs Gregor Blanco is not even a worthy debate, even during a down year for Pence, which would still be a career year for Blanco.

Pence has 17 HR's this season, Blanco might not hit 17 in his entire career.

Pence is a whipping boy on this site, but he's a good player and easily an upgrade for SF.

[Warner2BruceTD]

Not gonna trust half a season of defensive "data" when we don't even know if a year's worth is ever accurate.

He has always been a brutal defender. Anyway, even if you are right and he has been above passable, we're still just talking about LF.

Somebody tweeted that scouts were raving about his improved defense, so I was skeptical and looked it up. The numbers backed it, so I will shoulder shrug and accept it. Eye test + metrics is good enough for me.

Anyway, the overall point here is the guy is hitting well enough to make $18M not look terrible, even with average at worst defense in LF, so that contract isn't nearly as ugly as it was 5 years ago with inflation. Surprised nobody made a play, because you know the Cubs didn't want a ton back and probably would have paid half at minimum.

[Rudi]

Miguel Cairo had a bunt hit today