St. Louis Cardinals

[Woy]

Nice win tonight to open up 2012. Too many men left on base, but there is a lot of positives to take from this. Lohse looked great (although was bailed out a tad because of the dimensions of the ballpark), Freese continued his hot streak from the post-season, Furcal looked AWESOME and the team just played really fluid and smooth.

Didn't like Matheny sending Jay on two straight pitches in the 4th, but he'll learn. Holliday looked out of it as well, but besides that, everyone receives a positive grade.



Off to Milwaukee...time to play 27 straight games within the division.

[Primetime]

CARDINALS
Rafael Furcal SS
Carlos Beltran RF
Matt Holliday LF
Lance Berkman 1B
David Freese 3B
Yadier Molina C
John Jay CF
Daniel Descalso 2B
Jaime Garcia LHP

BREWERS
Rickie Weeks 2B
Carlos Gomez CF
Ryan Braun LF
Aramis Ramirez 3B
Corey Hart RF
Alex Gonzalez SS
Mat Gamel 1B
Jonathan Lucroy C
Yovani Gallardo RHP

[Woy]

The offense doesn't miss Albert at all. #openingweekoverreactions

Waino tomorrow!

[Woy]

Nice "first" series in Milwaukee. Bats were shit against Greinke, but dominant in the other two outings. Starting pitching looked pretty good all the way through as well.

Furcal's looking like a young'n again out there, while Freese is still riding that WS high. Love what Beltran has brought to the line-up as well.

Nothing too unusual out of Matheny so far, besides his aggressiveness on the base paths. We have some solid runners, but no one like a Dee Gordon who can guarantee me a SB every time we attempt it - so the aggressiveness scares me, but it's refreshing to see.

Off to Cincinnati who will be our main competition in the division. Let's continue our hot start.

[Rudi]

Good luck these next 3 games

[Woy]

Cardinals showing there is life after Albert

CINCINNATI -- The snarky and short-sighted among us will say, "Albert who?" Because that's just how good these St. Louis Cardinals have looked without Albert Pujols early on.

Obviously, though, it won't always be this way. There will almost assuredly be a night when the Cards will be shut down by some soft-tossing lefty and Pujols, a world away on the West Coast, will hit a titanic blast that harkens back to his St. Louis heyday.

Hey, it's bound to happen over the course of 162 games. And over the course of 162 times 10, it will probably happen quite a few times.



Holliday's solo jack
00:00:47
4/9/12: Matt Holliday puts the Cardinals out in front early with a long solo shot off of Homer Bailey
Tags: More From This Game, home run, Matt Holliday, St. Louis Cardinals, hittingShare:
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Freese's two-run homer

Molina's back-to-back blast

Molina's two-run double
But if the Cardinals wanted to make some sort of statement in this nascent stage of the 2012 season -- in this immediate aftermath of their improbable World Series run -- that life without Pujols does, indeed, go on, well, I'm already willing to say they've made it here in the opening week.

The statement looks a little something like this: solo shot by Matt Holliday; a Lance Berkman walk drawn on an oh-so-close payoff pitch; a David Freese two-run blast; and then, finally, Yadier Molina pummeling a first-pitch four-seamer from Homer Bailey.

Three first-inning homers, four first-inning runs at Great American Ball Park -- all with two out -- and enough damage done to pave the way to a remarkably easy 7-1 victory over a Reds team counted by some as the National League Central favorite.

And while the sample size is, indeed, tiny -- and Great American is a haven for homers -- this was no outlier. This opening outburst was already the second three-homer inning for a Cards team that had none all of last year. As a team, the Cards' nine homers are the most of anybody in the early going. But, more to the point, they're batting .317 as a team -- with 20 extra-base hits and 20 walks.

"I really hope they're peaking now," Brewers starter Randy Wolf said over the weekend, "because they look really good."

Hate to break this to Wolf, but this probably ain't the peak.

This, after all, is a deep, balanced and veteran lineup that -- thanks to the newly acquired Carlos Beltran and a full season from Freese -- could actually wind up more productive than the one that prominently featured Pujols a year ago.

"Hopefully, this week is showing the good things to come," Freese said. "We see it as a small sample. We're not jumping the gun. But you look at the middle of the lineup -- Beltran, Matt and Lance -- and everybody that complements them, and that's a scary lineup."

Freese represents, possibly, the Cards' greatest upside of all, and he's on an opening tear (.417 average, 1.083 OPS) that makes his October glory look like no flash in the pan. He's finally healthy after many setbacks with his fragile feet, and he's shown a better approach at the plate than he displayed in a sluggish spring.

"I think he's just trusting himself a little more," manager Mike Matheny said. "He's not as jumpy. He left the zone a lot in the spring, trying to do too much. Now, he's seeing the ball well. That's what it comes down to. When guys are going good, they're seeing the ball well and trusting their hands. Not a lot of ugly swings."

And there's nothing ugly about that team home-run total, either, though the Cards know they're on an unsustainable pace in that department.

"The good thing is, these guys are just going up putting up good swings," Matheny said. "They're not trying to hit home runs. That's something Mark [McGwire] has preached as long as he's had this job [as hitting coach]. He truly believed that. Most people won't buy it when they watched him in '98, but it's a thought philosophy of a swing path more so than trying to launch the ball in the air. Because when you do that, popups happen. I think we're doing a good job of just putting up good at-bats altogether. Those tough at-bats are going to pay off in the long run."

McGwire's goal is to have a club that wears out the opposing pitcher, pitch by pitch. Beltran is the perfect addition to that attack, given that he's averaged a highly respectable 3.86 pitches per plate appearance over the last decade.

It's a mentality that's being passed around from the vets to the younger faces in the Cardinals' clubhouse.

"Concentration, confidence and focus," Freese said. "When you're around these veterans long enough, you realize that's what separates you."

If the Cardinals keep playing like this -- averaging 6.2 runs per game with their starters posting a sub-2.00 ERA -- they'll separate themselves in the Central in a hurry. Again, though, that pace can't be sustained over the long haul.

What is sustainable, however, is the quality of at-bats, the relentlessness of the attack of a veteran-laden lineup.

There was a great deal of curiosity as to what this Cardinals club would look like without one veteran, in particular. And the early results -- while not enough to make you say "Albert who?" -- are enough to make you think the Cards will be just fine, thank you.

lol @ Randy Wolf hoping we're peaking now...it's April.

[SHOGUN]

Wainwright got manhandled.

They got hot in the fifth, I thought they were going to make a comeback.

Really digging Jon Jay right about now.

[Woy]

Love me some Jon Jay.

Gonna be interesting what happens to him when Craig's back healthy, especially how he's been unreal out there covering ground in CF. Do you sacrifice the defense for more offense and have a regular OF rotation of Holliday/Beltran/Craig? I'm sure they already have something ready, with Craig shuffling between LF/RF/1B to give breaks to Berkman/Holliday/Beltran, but we shall see. It's a good problem to have.

Not too worried about Waino. Bad situation for him to go out there today with the rain delay and long pre-game...not to mention our history in home openers has been awful. If he struggles next start (even though I feel he pitched relatively well against MIL), then there's a little bit of reason to get concerned.

[Woy]

[Cody]

Glad I grabbed Jon Jay in my pay league

[Woy]

Little article on VEB about Lance Lynn. Lynn's been one of the early surprises for us this season and looks to figure as a full-time starter for us in the future, if he hasn't done that already.

Viva El Birdos - Lance Lynn Is Not Who You Think He Is

Lance Lynn was drafted in 2008 in the 1st supplemental round. At the time of the draft, you would hear comments about how "polished" Lynn was or how he would be able to "move quickly" through the system. Often, and this was the case with Lynn, lines like that are code for a lack of pure stuff. When Lynn was drafted, his average fastball was closer to 90mph than it was to 95mph. He lacked the definitive secondary pitch that could put away batters and instead focused on a variety of pitches and mixing a curveball, slider and changeup to keep batters off balance.

This narrative followed him throughout his minor league career and it was not an incorrect narrative. In 2009, I watched Lynn's start in Memphis. At that time I noted:

After watching the video, I came away a little disappointed. There’s nothing in his repertoire that stands out as a swing and miss offering. The fastballs are a tick above average. The breaking ball is an above average pitch and the changeup is a functional average third pitch. He’s got different looks to him and what he throws and he’ll need that to survive because the raw stuff was very underwhelming.

Throughout 2009, there wasn't a lot of evidence that Lynn was pitching in any exceptional fashion. He had a good year at Springfield, where he pitched the vast majority of his innings, with a 3.47 FIP but it was largely due to an aberrant low home run rate. His strikeout rate was thoroughly underwhelming (< 7K/9IP) and his command was unexceptional (3.63BB/9IP). 2010 featured a similar start but something changed.

In the first half of 2010, Lynn's K:BB ratio was under 2. Through July, August and one September start, it rocketed to over 3. Lynn capped off that season with the impressive 16 strikeout game for the Redbirds in playoff baseball. When you aren't watching a player on a day in day out basis and when you aren't privy to what the coaches are working on them with, statistics are difficult to parse between variance and a real change in skill. Rumors and reports of an increase in velocity started showing up on the internet and I asked Farm Director John Vuch about it.

He did touch 96 on several fastballs late in the year, but really worked more consistently in the 92 MPH range (with quite a few 94’s). Since earlier in the year he would sit at 90 MPH with the occasional 92-93, the gain in velocity is significant, at least in terms of where he finished the season. Much of Lynn’s success stems from the deception in his delivery, which allows his fastball to "jump" out of his hand, making his fastball a swing and miss pitch.

I was, reflexively, skeptical of that response. Not that Mr. Vuch was being false in his response but part of his job is to offer a positive outlook on the prospects. It would be extremely unexpected to get a critical response. (For those of you who were listening to KMOX's rain delay coverage yesterday, you got a dose of this via Double AA Springfield GM Matt Gifford. While praising Matt Adams defense at first, Gifford began the Kolten Wong-Roberto Alomar comparisons.) I wrote of my skepticism at the time.

It’s worth keeping in mind that Lynn did have a mixed 2010 but I hope this helps shed some light on (some) of the reasons for that. I’d feel irresponsible to tell you to totally disregard his first half performance — indeed, Lynn will probably have times when he loses his mechanics for a couple starts and has command issues — but Mr. Vuch’s words certainly lend credence to the arguments that Lynn’s second half was more characteristic of his ability than the first half of 2010.

Lance Lynn is not the same pitcher he was when he was drafted. He flashed some of that potential in 2011 in the bullpen. Lynn became a strikeout machine with better than a strikeout an inning. Much of his work in the bullpen is now part of Cardinal lore immortalized in the post season. What is easy to miss is that, prior to being called up, Lynn had shown an increased strikeout rate and a decreased walk rate in Memphis relative to his previous season.

While his work as a starter in Memphis during 2011 wasn't on par with his bullpen role throughout the end of the season, it lends to the theory that something had fundamentally changed. Lynn has continued to refine his game as well. In spring, Derrick Goold made note of Lynn's work on a cut fastball to add another dimension to his repertoire.

Lynn struck out three batters, and he regularly touched 96 mph on the stadium's radar gun. He was able to fire a fastball up in the zone past Jack Cust in the first inning. His 37th pitch of the game was a 96 mph fastball that Jed Lowrie took for a strike. Lynn mixed in his hard curve and the cut fastball that he's been working on utilizing this spring. Several times he was able to use his cutter effectively for an awkward swing — Matheny's description — or called strike.

The narrative of a fifth starter, however, has been hard to shake. For instance, in March the St. Louis Post-Dispatch queried several of their writers as well as VEB's founder Larry Borowsky with the question "If pressed into starting duty, how do you think Lance Lynn projects as a member of a big league rotation?" Uniformly, Joe Strauss, Goold, Rick Hummel, Jeff Gordon and Borowsky all answered that Lynn was a back of the rotation starter.

Danupbaby noted yesterday, a bit perplexedly, that Lance Lynn isn't acting like the Lance Lynn many thought he was.

Through two starts Lance Lynn hasn't been perfect (he did give way to five relief pitchers today) but he's been outstanding, in a very noisy, visibly impressive way—it's still strange to me that this Lance Lynn, striking out 13 batters in 12 innings, is the same one who was supposed to stand at the back of the Cardinals' rotation one day, throwing 88 mile-an-hour sinkers until he'd gone six innings and given up three earned runs.

After his first start in Milwaukee when he pitched 6.2 innings and struck out 8, there was an enjoyable anecdote in Goold's post-game writeup.

Lynn faced the minimum through four innings, and during that flawless fourth, the Cardinals’ four starters watched together from the dugout. It was then that Adam Wainwright and Jake Westbrook started asking Kyle Lohse and Jaime Garcia about Carpenter’s return in a month or more. With Lynn overwhelming the Brewers, the four starters wondered which of them would be displaced by Carpenter.

Lynn's second start, yesterday against the Cubs, was less impressive with 2 walks in 5.1 innings. It still featured 5 strikeouts and, ultimately, was a winning effort. One start does not a complete picture make -- nor should it radically alter our opinion of Lynn even considering the first start as well. There should be a point soon, however, where the body of evidence -- and the narrative -- is no longer that of a fifth starter but of Lynn's remarkable transition from fifth-starter-type-prospect to improved-starter-prospect to MLB bullpen relief ace to good starting pitcher.

There is an element of this that is reminiscent for me of Jaime Garcia's path to the majors. Garcia was regarded as a good pitching prospect. Arguably a #2 or #3 starter with his mix of a heavy fastball and plus curveball. Now, after two full years in the majors, Garcia owns the 14th best FIP in MLB over that time. Better than Adam Wainwright. Better than Chris Carpenter. How often is Jaime Garcia called an ace? Rarely. Should he be? I don't know.

The point is that the Jaime Garcia of the majors has been unexpectedly good. We thought he'd be good but few thought he'd be this good.

It is not my intent to regale you with comparisons of Lance Lynn and Jaime Garcia. They are radically different pitchers at different stages in their career but there's an odd parallel to their stories. In both cases, the narrative lagged the reality. Narratives are sticky things cast by writers to explain players or situations. They are intended to enhance and characterize our understanding of those topics. In almost every instance though, the narrative is behind the times. It may be right but it is right due to the present matching the past more than the narrative accurately describing the present.

I write today to tell you that Lynn is not who you think he is. He's not who I once thought he was. Lynn in 2012 is a fundamentally different pitcher than he was at the draft. He's a different pitcher than he was in the first half of 2010. The narrative is lagging and out of date. Lynn will almost certainly not continue pitching as effectively as in his first two starts but it's time to shake the shackles of the fifth starter narrative.

Lance Lynn has.

[mcstl25]

I just hope Lynn doesn't pull a McClellan and break down half way through the year. Something tells me that even if Carpenter comes back by the all-star break, Lynn will still be in the rotation. Likely because of an injury to another pitcher.

[Woy]

Or Jake waives his no-trade clause after getting pushed to the bullpen and we dump him for a second baseman who fields relatively well and can hit over the Mendoza line! #wishfulthinking

Just hoping the rotation can keep this up, especially when Waino's still trying to figure some stuff out. It was guys like Lohse and McClellan last year that kept us afloat when Carp was struggling.

[Woy]

Can we teach Matt Carpenter how to play second so we can get his bat in the line-up?

[Woy]

Reds/Cards is MLB.TV's free game of the day.