Rocky Long's anti punting plan

[Warner2BruceTD]

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaaf-dr-saturday/san-diego-state-coach-rocky-long-doesn-t-183545835--ncaaf.html

For years, numerous studies have suggested that punting once you cross the 50, and punting on 4th and less than 5 yards to go situations anywhere on the field, actually cost a team more points than they prevent. But because football coaches are the most conservative, fearful, media fearing pussies on the planet, nobody wants to be the first guy to buck the punting trend and test these theories. Hopefully Long goes through with this.

[Rayman]

I feel like I read one of these every year.

[jms493]

What if my defense is AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Sportsbuck]

But because football coaches are the most conservative, fearful, media fearing pussies on the planet, nobody wants to be the first guy to buck the punting trend and test these theories. Hopefully Long goes through with this.

Couldn't have said it better. They are always afraid to go against the grain until it becomes mainstream or proven.

Having 4 downs to work with will also make the offense that much more effective as opposed to the 3 in attempting to get the 1st. There are some people that think this philosophy is the new wave, and the 'future' of football.

[Warner2BruceTD]

Don't forget, if coaches are programmed with the idea that they are working with four downs as opposed to three, playcalling will change. This isn't about going for a first down on 3rd down, failing, and trying again because the yardage is short. This is a completely new mindset in playcalling and attacking a defense. Third down playcalling will change drastically.

[RyanLeaf16]

I would love to read this, but, everytime I click on the link it says "page not found." Care to copy/paste?

[EmpireWF]

Take the final / out of the link...

San Diego State coach Rocky Long has always been about doing things differently.

At New Mexico, he developed the innovative 3-3-5 defensive scheme and now he's debating on whether to do away with punting on fourth down — if the Aztecs are beyond the 50-yard line — for the 2012 season.

"It makes sense," Long told the San Diego Union-Tribune.

"Additional plays would allow you to score a lot more points," he said. "It also puts a whole lot of pressure on the defense."

Of course, Long isn't the innovator of this particular idea. That distinction belongs to Kevin Kelley, the head football coach of Pulaski Academy in Little Rock, Ark., who, after months of statistical analysis, determined his team would have a higher chance of success if it always kicked the ball onside and never punted. In nine years, Pulaski Academy is 104-19 with three state titles.
And now Long wants to see if that statistical analysis will hold true in the college game.

"It's a day-to-day theory," Long told the paper. "I haven't decided because we're getting a feel for it out here. I just read about this guy, and I don't know if I can do that because everybody in the world is going to say this is not Football 101, right?

Kelley has long said that punting is a voluntary turnover, so by that logic, why would you want to give the ball away? While the idea might be unconventional, it might just be crazy enough to work.

"There's a reason why he's winning those games," Long said of Kelley. "Maybe he just has better players than everybody else; or maybe it's their team gets used to playing like that and the other teams don't get used to playing like that. It's fourth-and-7 — most defenses run off the field. And now they're going to stay out there. 'What? How come the punt team isn't coming out?'"

If San Diego State does decide to go with this plan, it might be the next big thing in college football. Long's 3-3-5 defense is used by multiple teams and the spread offense was an anomaly until everyone realized that speeding up the game led to more points. If not punting can give a team even the slightest bit of an advantage, punting might become the leather helmet by 2016.

[steeljake]

oh boy... now we will hear the madden cheesers like OOBL saying 'they do it in real life!!!'

[Ravin]

You would think more teams would do this. Past the 50, 4 downs you just need 3 yard runs to get a first each time. Sure it is easy to say just three yards, but it also opens up more small throwing plays to pick up 3-5 yards, etc.

oh boy... now we will hear the madden cheesers like OOBL saying 'they do it in real life!!!'

You need a team in a league in order to complain.

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

There are a few coaches that are pretty successful in High School with this kind of scheme.

[ram29jackson]

There are a few coaches that are pretty successful in High School with this kind of scheme.

doesnt even compare...dont compare the 2

[Warner2BruceTD]

You would think more teams would do this. Past the 50, 4 downs you just need 3 yard runs to get a first each time. Sure it is easy to say just three yards, but it also opens up more small throwing plays to pick up 3-5 yards, etc.

Yeah, if a coach knows he's going for it on fourth down, he is more likely to call a run play on 3rd & 3 or 3rd & 4 as opposed to a pass. You would think that a team with a strong running game would have no fear of pounding the ball twice in a row in those 3rd & mid or short yardage situations.

It completely changes your thinking in terms of playcalling.

[ram29jackson]

bull pucky..he's probably doing it to hide a weak defense and hope things fall in his favor...yeah..you might go the other way and say my defense is so good I trust them to bail me out,you could possibly wear out a couple players on offense and get them injured too..? who knows...ultimately a all or nothing mentality could bite you in the ass more then reward you in the long run

[Golden Taters]

There are a few coaches that are pretty successful in High School with this kind of scheme.

Yep, Kevin Kelley comes to mind.

http://www.statesman.com/sports/just-go-for-it-a-case-against-punting-42364.html?printArticle=y

Virtually every time the Pulaski Academy Bruins face fourth down, the prep school team from Little Rock, Ark., goes for it. No matter the distance.

And here's the thing — the strategy works.

Coach Kevin Kelley and his Bruins won the state championship in Arkansas' third-largest classification last season and did not punt. This year, they are 7-2 with one punt — the other team was so surprised the ball went 51 yards with no return.

"I'm really a contrarian thinker. When everybody thinks something is going to happen it often times doesn't," Kelley says. "It's the same in football. When everybody thinks you should do something, maybe there's a better way."

The vast majority of college coaches wouldn't think for a second about bagging the kicking game (Pulaski has pretty much stopped trying field goals, too) and playing offense with all four downs, all the time.

"I'd get run out of Dodge," said Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis, who has been second-guessed for more than one fourth-down call.

Yet at least a couple of coaches were intrigued by the idea when they were told about the way Kelley coaches and the data behind his decision.

Texas Tech coach Mike Leach, who pretty much lives his life outside the box, said Kelley might be on to something.

"It's an interesting idea," Leach said. "Statistically, there's definitely some validity to it."

Kelley said the inspiration for his unorthodox, though he will tell you totally sound, strategy was from a documentary he stumbled across on television a few years back.

Between the data he jotted down from the show and what he has collected from his own team's games over the years, he determined going for it on fourth down every time isn't risky at all. In fact, according to his numbers, he is playing the percentages — even in the most extreme circumstances.

According to his data, a team that takes over the ball at its opponent's 10 or closer has a 92 percent chance of scoring a touchdown. A team that gains possession between its opponent's 40-yard line and its 31 has a 77 percent chance of scoring a touchdown.

So, Kelley figures, even if the Bruins fail to convert, he is only increasing his opponents' chances of scoring a TD by 15 percent more than they would have if they got off a decent punt. So why not go for it on fourth-and-8 from your own 6?

And, the Bruins convert about 50 percent of the time.

While Kelley's approach is extreme, he is not the only one with statistics that suggest there's too much kicking going on in football.

A study by University of California-Berkeley economist David Romer that came out in 2005 determined NFL coaches should go for it on fourth down far more often than they do.

For most coaches, the decision on whether to go for it on fourth down has more to do with feel for the game — and job security — than stats.

"Often, it's simply a gut decision," Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio said. "Is the timing right and do you have the confidence in your offense to execute the play against the defense that's called?"

"To me, it's a statistic, a position, a feel that gives a coach the, 'This is the right time to do this,' " LSU coach Les Miles said.

Miles earned a reputation as a swashbuckling gambler after his Tigers converted five fourth downs in a come-from-behind victory against Florida during their national championship season of 2007.

The perception was not backed by stats. While LSU led the nation in fourth-down conversion rate in '07 (81.3 percent), the Tigers' went on fourth down 16 times — which ranked in the lower third among 119 major college teams.

Kelley believes abandoning the kicking game has given his team a strategic and psychological advantage.

Because Pulaski Academy's offense is always playing with four downs, it drastically alters play calling for him — third-and-9 is not automatically a passing down — and his opponent — third-and-9 does not automatically mean sending in an extra defensive back.

And while a crucial fourth-down play can raise the heart rates of most players, for Kelley's guys it's just another play.

"There's no difference to them because they are used to it," he said. "The other team does get more excited."

And more deflated when the Bruins, whose game Friday night against Little Rock Christian will be televised by ESPNU, do convert.

Kelley said that on drives during which his team converts a fourth down, the Bruins score 84 percent of the time.

"I need to go talk to that guy because he's definitely on to something," Leach said. "There are plenty of statistical things whereas coaches, myself included, we're caught up in the good ol' days to the point that there's some changes and things that can be made to just be better and improve. Even if you don't go for what he's doing 100 percent, there's definitely something I'm sure that I can learn from him."

High school level, but still interesting results.

[ram29jackson]

only the weaker teams would try this anyway..you try this in the PAC or BIG and youll get killed