Braves Sign BJ Upton 5Yr/75Mil

[Goober]

I think what moneyman is saying that Carlos is about to get paid (hopefully by the Brewers).

 

[dell71]

Sorry. I'm another one not big on Upton and am skeptical that this will work out. Sure, his HR totals are going up, but nothing else is including his SB totals which are going down. He's hit below .250 for 4 years running and only broke that plateau twice in his career, three times if you include a rookie season with only 177 AB. His OBP has been .331 or worse over these same 4 years and dipped below .300 this season just completed. He strikes out more than once a game and in one of everyone's new favorite stats, his career OPS+ is a barely above average 105.

If a win is now worth $5.5 million, he'll only need to produce 13 WAR over the deal to get our money's worth. I'm fine with paying market rate for a 3-4 win CF in his prime years.

That math ain't addin' up to me. Based on BBref's #'s, he hasn't broken 3.0 WAR in 4 years (0.8, 1.0, 2.8, 2.6) despite playing in at least 144 games each season. That's not getting you 13 in the next 5 years. In his entire 8 year career, his WAR is barely 13. 13.6 to be exact. Unless he starts seriously reversing some trends I'm not seeing how this is going to be worth it. He's still living off '07 & '08 (especially '08 playoffs) which appear more like outlier seasons the longer his career goes.

 

[NAHSTE]

Sorry. I'm another one not big on Upton and am skeptical that this will work out. Sure, his HR totals are going up, but nothing else is including his SB totals which are going down. He's hit below .250 for 4 years running and only broke that plateau twice in his career, three times if you include a rookie season with only 177 AB. His OBP has been .331 or worse over these same 4 years and dipped below .300 this season just completed. He strikes out more than once a game and in one of everyone's new favorite stats, his career OPS+ is a barely above average 105.



That math ain't addin' up to me. Based on BBref's #'s, he hasn't broken 3.0 WAR in 4 years (0.8, 1.0, 2.8, 2.6) despite playing in at least 144 games each season. That's not getting you 13 in the next 5 years. In his entire 8 year career, his WAR is barely 13. 13.6 to be exact. Unless he starts seriously reversing some trends I'm not seeing how this is going to be worth it. He's still living off '07 & '08 (especially '08 playoffs) which appear more like outlier seasons the longer his career goes.

$/WAR formula is assuming fWAR, which is 2.4, 4.1, 4.1, 3.3 over the last 4 years.

I don't love him as a player either, but there's nothing anywhere that suggests this is an overpay. At worst, he continues to be what he is, which at the very least is a starting center fielder with above average tools.

 

[EmpireWF]

At worst...

Jason Bay

 

[dell71]

$/WAR formula is assuming fWAR, which is 2.4, 4.1, 4.1, 3.3 over the last 4 years.

I don't love him as a player either, but there's nothing anywhere that suggests this is an overpay. At worst, he continues to be what he is, which at the very least is a starting center fielder with above average tools.

At worst, he could get worse which he seems to be already in the early stages of doing. Hopefully for ATL, I'm wrong.