Justin Upton traded to Braves

[Warner2BruceTD]

Tired of this strawman. You didn't need WAR to make a definitive argument for Trout last year. He was the best all around player, hands down.

It's not a strawman. It's a veiled shot a glen, and about a million other people who instantly blurted out WAR!, which derailed most debates and turned it into NERD vs OLD GUY.

I dont even hate WAR, I hate the over reliance on it from some.

 

[Goober]

The fielding components are different. It's also constantly being tweaked.

WAR, the only stat where the parameters are in a constant state of flux, arbitrary values are used in the formula, and where you can find two completely different sets of results.

We should probably use a stat like that to base our MVP & HOF arguments!

Arbitrary values don't explain a 3 win difference in Trout and Cabrera's WAR totals. You can use that example to argue Ryan Braun or Andrew McCutchen were better then Posey, but not Cabrera over Trout.

 

[NAHSTE]

It's not a strawman. It's a veiled shot a glen, and about a million other people who instantly blurted out WAR!, which derailed most debates and turned it into NERD vs OLD GUY.

I dont even hate WAR, I hate the over reliance on it from some.

I think we can agree that is an unfortunate oversimplification, perpetuated by both extremes.

But LOL at the toolsy outfielder being the "nerd" guy and the high OBP plodder being the champion of the old school scouts. So goofy.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Arbitrary values don't explain a 3 win difference in Trout and Cabrera's WAR totals. You can use that example to argue Ryan Braun or Andrew McCutchen were better then Posey, but not Cabrera over Trout.

Hey dipstick, I realize you jump to defend WAR like it's your sister, but please, go back, read what I posted next, and understand that im not arguing Trout vs Cabrera here.

 

[Goober]

Hey dipstick, I realize you jump to defend WAR like it's your sister, but please, go back, read what I posted next, and understand that im not arguing Trout vs Cabrera here.

I'm not trying to argue Trout vs. Cabrera. But I will defend the use of WAR to compare the two in 2012. If you have any faith at all in the WAR calculation, then it made the AL MVP debate pretty cut and dry. That's probably why your so called "nerd" crowd refused to be persuaded otherwise in the argument. Meanwhile the "oldschool" guys were so mystified by their own made up arbitrary statistic, THE TRIPLE CROWN, that they refused to even acknowledge other statistics. At the end of the day, nerds are upset because their guy lost, and the oldtimers come off looking clueless like the people who criticized Nate Silver in November.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I'm not trying to argue Trout vs. Cabrera. But I will defend the use of WAR to compare the two in 2012. If you have any faith at all in the WAR calculation, then it made the AL MVP debate pretty cut and dry. That's probably why your so called "nerd" crowd refused to be persuaded otherwise in the argument. Meanwhile the "oldschool" guys were so mystified by their own made up arbitrary statistic, THE TRIPLE CROWN, that they refused to even acknowledge other statistics. At the end of the day, nerds are upset because their guy lost, and the oldtimers come off looking clueless like the people who criticized Nate Silver in November.

Fair enough, I see what you are saying in that case because the gap was quite huge.

Again, I don't hate WAR, it's fine for what it is, I use it as a snapshot sort of deal, as in "ok, I never saw this guy who played in 1930, let me check his WAR" and it helps me paint a picture of what kind of player he was.

That whole debate made me sick, and shame on both sides to some extent. I jumped on the Bill James bandwagon in like 8th grade, so I embraced "new" stats a long time ago. At the same time, I still appreciate players who do things that have been somewhat devalued lately. I try to ride the line on these things.

 

[NAHSTE]

Ok now you corncobs needs to take this to another thread.

Back on topic ...

Atlanta, of course, signed B.J. to a five-year free-agent deal back in November, and it added Justin Upton in a seven-player trade with the Diamondbacks on Thursday, making Gonzalez the first professional manager to have the luxury of filling out a batting order with both brothers. B.J., the 28-year-old former No. 2 overall pick who has averaged 19 homers, 36 steals and a .768 OPS over his six full seasons, and Justin, the 25-year-old former No. 1 overall pick who has averaged 23 homers, 19 steals and a .846 OPS in his four full seasons, figure to help give the Braves an excellent chance at returning to the postseason.

Though acknowledging that a lot could change between Jan. 24 and Opening Day on April 1, Gonzalez outlined a lineup with Justin Upton batting third and B.J. Upton batting fifth, righthanded bookends around lefty-swinging Brian McCann (presuming, of course, that the catcher is fully healed from offseason shoulder surgery by then):

SS Andrelton Simmons
RF Jason Heyward
LF Justin Upton
C Brian McCann
CF B.J. Upton
1B Freddie Freeman or 2B Dan Uggla
2B Dan Uggla or 1B Freddie Freeman
3B Chris Johnson or Juan Francisco

Two years ago, Justin Upton finished fourth in the National League MVP voting. He hit 31 home runs and posted an .898 slugging percentage. In baseball history, 12 outfielders had that many homers and that high an OPS in their age-23 season: Andruw Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, Juan Gonzalez, Jose Canseco, Reggie Jackson, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Duke Snider, Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio and Mel Ott.

Teams don't trade that guy.

:fap2:

 

[Goober]

Fair enough, I see what you are saying in that case because the gap was quite huge.

Again, I don't hate WAR, it's fine for what it is, I use it as a snapshot sort of deal, as in "ok, I never saw this guy who played in 1930, let me check his WAR" and it helps me paint a picture of what kind of player he was.

That whole debate made me sick, and shame on both sides to some extent. I jumped on the Bill James bandwagon in like 8th grade, so I embraced "new" stats a long time ago. At the same time, I still appreciate players who do things that have been somewhat devalued lately. I try to ride the line on these things.

Exactly. As I said if you trust WAR at all, there's no way you can explain away the three win difference. It's like trying to argue that Jeff Francoeur was better then Jay Bruce last year, there's no rational argument for it. Now if Cabrera's WAR was say 7.5, and Trout's 8, then yes, the old school arguments might have held some weight. Their WARs are close, but I think Cabrera overcomes the difference due to his advantage in the power category. But that argument doesn't work when the difference is that big.

Plus Trout doesn't get a difference like that, by only leading the league in WAR. There are plenty of other statistics that point to Trout being the better player in 2012.

What's unsettling is the huge amount of people who still refuse to acknowledge this argument in the media, and instead turn to namecalling.

 

[NAHSTE]

Ok now you corncobs needs to take this to another thread.

Back on topic ...





:fap2:

 

[Glenbino]

Ooooo is this thread about :trouty: now? opcorn:

And as long as pitcher wins, saves and RBI are mentioned in debates over player value I'm going to bring up WAR.

Give me a wonky stat over a circumstantial one any day.

Sent from my LG-P999 using Tapatalk 2

 

[NAHSTE]

Ok now you corncobs needs to take this to another thread.

Back on topic ...





:fap2:

 

[Goober]

Ooooo is this thread about :trouty: now? opcorn:

And as long as pitcher wins, saves and RBI are mentioned in debates over player value I'm going to bring up WAR.

Give me a wonky stat over a circumstantial one any day.

Sent from my LG-P999 using Tapatalk 2

Glen, how about that Angel Outfield though? Gotta be the best outfield in baseball, right?

 

[NAHSTE]

Glen, how about that Angel Outfield though? Gotta be the best outfield in baseball, right?

:bettman:

 

[Glenbino]

Glen, how about that Angel Outfield though? Gotta be the best outfield in baseball, right?

I don't know if the WAR scale goes high enough to account for a full season of :trouty: in left.

Sent from my LG-P999 using Tapatalk 2

 

[NAHSTE]

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=25571713&source=MLB

 

[Slateman]

Prado signs a four year deal with the DBacks worth 40 million

 

[NAHSTE]

Should Atlanta be concerned that he hits .250/.325/.406 on the road for his career?

Interesting thought.

:maynard:

 

[Slateman]

Halfway point

Turns out, Chris Johnson has been the best player in this trade with 1.3 WAR and a .332/.375/.485 line. And not even the worst defense at third in his division (THANKS RYAN)

Justin Upton with 1.2 WAR and a .243/.347/.437. OPSing the lowest since 2007, though his ISO and wRCC+ is still pretty good. I find it curious that his Z Contact % is 75%, a full 10 percent lower than last year and lower than it's been the last 3 year.

 

[NAHSTE]

Halfway point

Turns out, Chris Johnson has been the best player in this trade with 1.3 WAR and a .332/.375/.485 line. And not even the worst defense at third in his division (THANKS RYAN)

Justin Upton with 1.2 WAR and a .243/.347/.437. OPSing the lowest since 2007, though his ISO and wRCC+ is still pretty good. I find it curious that his Z Contact % is 75%, a full 10 percent lower than last year and lower than it's been the last 3 year.

He's late on even average fastballs. Not sure why, but he's been missing his typical Sheffield-esque bat speed since mid-April. Fangraphs ran a study that said he saw the most significant decrease in bat speed in the majors this year. I wonder if he's playing through an oblique or back injury, because I can't think of any other reason why his best attribute would disappear 3 weeks into what was looking like a career year.

Anyway just bought low on him in our VSN keeper league so hopefully we can make fun of Pete like Kevin Towers soon.

:running:

ete2:

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Anyway just bought low on him in our VSN keeper league so hopefully we can make fun of Pete like Kevin Towers soon.

:running:

ete2:

Sold high on Kipnis is more like it. Nice job talking him up in the chatbox for two weeks.

Gave up on Tat Latos, you will rue the day, guy is a front line stud in the making, but overall #nice #haul with Profar lottery ticket.