Brewers offseason thread

[Goober]

If I know Doug Melvin, he will be looking to compete in the NL Central again next year, despite Prince Fielder leaving. I'm not sure if this is a good idea or not. Trading a few players who are getting expensive (Corey Hart, any starting pitcher not named Gallardo or Greinke) would allow for an influx of young talent that would improve the farm system now, and make the team better and cheaper in a few years. However there's no way Doug Melvin does that. With that said lets try to figure out what the roster will look like in 2012.

Under Contract:
Zack Greinke (13.5 million)
Rickie Weeks (11 million)
Randy Wolf (9.5 million)
Corey Hart (9.33 million)
Ryan Braun (7 million)
Yovani Gallardo (5.75 million)
Total: 56.08 Million

Decline player options:
Francisco Rodriguez (3.5 million)
Yuniesky Betancourt (2 million)
Total: 5.5 Million
The Brewers received money when they traded for both of these players. I'll assume a conservative 2 million will go to these buyouts, for a total of 3.5 million owed by Milwaukee If you think either players option should be picked up then I suggest you walk off a cliff.

Arbitration eligible:
Shaun Marcum-Arbitration 3 (7 million)
Carlos Gomez-Arbitration 3 (2.2 million)
Kameron Loe-Arbitration 3 (2 million)
Josh Wilson-Arbitration 2 (Declined)
Casey McGehee-Arbitration 1 (1.2 million)
Nyjer Morgan-Arbitration 1 (1.5 million)
George Kottaras-Arbitration 1 (1 mil
lion)
Mitch Stetter-Arbitration 1 (declined)
Total: 14.9 million
* These are my own estimates for arbitration. I didn't bother comparing player numbers to similar players or anything like that. Simply, they are extremely rough estimates.

Other players under contract:
John Axford
Chris Narveson
Jonathan Lucroy
Zack Braddock
Marco Estrada
Brandon Kintzler
Taylor Green
Tim Dillard
Several minor leaguers. Each player will make ~0.5 million.
Total: 4 million

In total the Brewers will have ~78.41 million in play role obligations. I expect them to have a total payroll in the 90-95 million range. With the players listed above, here's the current roster:

C-Jonathan Lucroy
C-George Kottaras
2B-Rickie Weeks
3B-Casey McGehee
3B-Taylor Green
OF-Ryan Braun
OF-Carlos Gomez
OF-Nyjer Morgan
OF-Corey Hart

SP-Zack Greinke
SP-Yovani Gallardo
SP-Shaun Marcum
SP-Randy Wolf
SP-Chris Narveson
RP-John Axford
RP-Kameron Loe
RP-Zack Braddock
RP-Marco Estrada
RP-Brandon Kintzler
RP-Tim Dillard

So the Brewers will need to find a 1B, SS, OF5, RP, IF.

Also, here's a list of their free agents leaving:

Prince Fielder
Francisco Rodriguez
Yuniesky Betancourt
Jerry Hairston Jr
Craig Counsell
LaTroy Hawkins
Takashi Saito
Mark Kotsay.

 

[Primetime]

Some thoughts....

- Losing most of our bullpen will not be pretty.
- I'm curious to see if the put someone like Corey or Casey at first.
- Taylor Green should get the 3B role.
- I'm guessing Nyjer and Carlos will continue to share CF.
- Hopefully Randy Wolf can defy age and have a similar year.

 

[Goober]

If I was in charge of the Brewers here's what I'd do this winter.

*Resign Hairston and Saito. Both players had great years, and should be ok to signing a cheap one year contract.
*Move Corey Hart to 1B and sign/trade for Nick Swisher, neither the 1B free agent class nor the outfield class is very appealing this year once you get past the big names that are out of the Brewers price range. Swisher should come cheap in a trade with the Yankees and if they choose not to exercise his option I think he could be signed for a contract in the 3/24 range. He won't replace Fielder's bat in the lineup but he's a huge upgrade defensively in RF and a very consistent bat.
*Sign Marco Scutaro. Boston has an option for Scutaro, but with Jed Lowrie and Jose Iglesias he is expendable. Scutaro would be a huge improvement over Betancourt both with a bat and glove. He's a patient hitter that is hard to get out, something that Yuni certainly isn't.
*Sign Jason Giambi. I don't even know if Giambi plans to play again in 2012, or if he will leave Colorado if he does return. But there's still a lot of power in that bat, and he's certainly a better bat off the bench then Mark Kotsay. Plus he could platoon at 1B with Corey Hart when the Neanderthal inevitable struggles begin next year.

Non of these players are all stars, but they would certain provide a big impact for the team and allow the Brewers to remain competitive while also keeping their payroll flexible to resign Zack Greinke and other players in the future. Plus comparing 2011 WAR numbers it's a solid improvement from the 2011 team.

Prince Fielder 5.5 WAR
Yuniesky Betancourt 0.5 WAR
Mark Kotsay 0.2 WAR
Total: 6.2 WAR

Nick Swisher 3.8 WAR
Marco Scutaro 2.9 WAR
Jason Giambi 1.3 WAR
Total: 8.0 WAR

I would also trade/designate for assignment Casey McGehee and let Hairston/Green platoon at 3B. This lineup would be a lot of fun in interleague play:

1B-Corey Hart
CF-Nyjer Morgan/Carlos Gomez
LF-Ryan Braun
2B-Rickie Weeks
RF-Nick Swisher
DH-Jason Giambi
3B-Jerry Hairston/Taylor Green
SS-Marco Scutaro
C-Jonathan Lucroy

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

There is no reason this team can't continue to compete in 2012 and beyond. I would not break it up.

 

[Primetime]

As long as we have this pitching staff and at least one of our guys in the farm pan out to be a solid 4/5 type pitcher, we'll be able to compete with anyone. Just need a couple new bats in the lineup.

 

[Goober]

Is Doug Melvin retarded?

 

Yes

 

 

[Goober]

Well right now it looks like Swisher, Scutaro and Giambi will all be staying with their current teams. My dream scenario is up in smoke before free agency even starts.

Clint Barmes it is!

 

[Goober]

In addition, the Brewers declined a $6 million club option on shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt, who gets a $2 million buyout.

Nothing can bring me down today now!

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

John Heyman just made a great point...

If the Brewers offered Fielder $120M, why can't they offer Jose Reyes $120M?

 

[Primetime]

John Heyman just made a great point...

If the Brewers offered Fielder $120M, why can't they offer Jose Reyes $120M?

Cuz Fielder is worth a lot more than Reyes to the Brewers organization. IIRC, I thought we only offered Prince $100M

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Cuz Fielder is worth a lot more than Reyes to the Brewers organization. IIRC, I thought we only offered Prince $100M

But the point is, if you can't sign Fielder, why not throw that salary slot at Reyes?

 

[Primetime]

Personally, I don't want to see them throw that kind of money at anyone. I'd rather be able to resign our pitching staff after next season.

I'm not a big fan of Reyes either. Injury prone and a ton of miles on those legs. Prince is obviously the MUCH safer pick from a consistency stand point. I'd offer Reyes $80M and nothing more....it's just a bad contract waiting to happen.

 

[Goober]

Personally, I don't want to see them throw that kind of money at anyone. I'd rather be able to resign our pitching staff after next season.

I'm not a big fan of Reyes either. Injury prone and a ton of miles on those legs. Prince is obviously the MUCH safer pick from a consistency stand point. I'd offer Reyes $80M and nothing more....it's just a bad contract waiting to happen.

Jose Reyes has had an fWAR of at least 5.8 in four of the last six seasons. In the same amount of time, Prince Fielder has done that once.

 

[moneyman255]

MLBTR Tim Dirkes predicts Reyes to sign with Milwaukee fyi.

I don't know, I am torn on Reyes. He is a great, great player when healthy but he has missed 30 or more games in each of the last 3 seasons. He is only 28, and is one of the better defensive SS around.

I would go 5 years, 95 million at the highest, and then sign someone like Cuddyer or Sizemore to play RF and move Hart to 1B, trade Gamel for someone. Trade Wolf for prospects, and then give Fiers/Peralta chance for the #5 spot.

C: Lucroy
1B: Hart
2B: Weeks
3B: Green/Hairston Jr
SS: Reyes
LF: Braun
CF: Morgan/Gomez
RF: Cuddyer or Sizemore

Not sure how much total salary this will cost, but I kinda like the lineup.

 

[NAHSTE]

If it's a choice between Reyes and re-signing Fielder, I gotta go with Prince. Reyes is one of my favorite players but I'm not sure he's going to age well.

 

[Primetime]

Reyes doesn't have the game that ages well. Prince does. I personally don't want either of them from a salary stand point.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Prince had old man skills at 23, no reason to think he can't club 35-40 HR's and walk a lot well into his mid to late 30's.

Check out this odd, yet likely meaningless Prince OPS trend:

.831
1.013
.879
1.104
.871
.981

Every other year he's either stellar, or "slips" into the .800's. Interesting, if nothing else.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I'd also like to point out that I believe Reyes had a career year in terms of BA, SLG, and OPS.

I doubt he ever tops any of those numbers.

 

[Primetime]

His on again off again seasons have been known by Brewer fans for awhile. Take that into account next season when he's not living up to the contract he'll sign.

 

[NAHSTE]

Prince had old man skills at 23, no reason to think he can't club 35-40 HR's and walk a lot well into his mid to late 30's.

Yeah and he is probably not going to gain much more weight since he's so short. He'll be the exact same for the next 6 years. Reyes won't.

I doubt he ever tops any of those numbers.

Which is why it's foolish for any team other than the Mets to overpay.