It's time for some Japanese MMA tonight on HDNet. It is the first round of the DREAM World Bantamweight Grand Prix, headlined by DREAM lightweight champion Shinya Aoki facing former WEC lightweight champion Rob McCullough. On the undercard we have a Shooto vs. Pancrase matchup with Willamy Friere and Satoru Kitaoka, former UFC fighter Gerald Harris' DREAM debut and the featherweight debut of Tatsuya Kawajiri in a 2006 Shooto rematch with Joachim Hansen. Here is a quick rundown of the main card with my picks.
Lightweight: Shinya Aoki (28-5-1 NC, 10-2-1 NC DREAM) vs. Rob McCullough (19-7, Debut)
Although the Gilbert Melendez loss does not seem that long ago, Shinya Aoki has won five in a row since and he recently made a change in camp to EVOLVE MMA in Singapore. He’s been working with several Muay Thai world champions to improve his standup and while it will be intriguing to see how much he has improved, his bread and butter is still is his inventive and very dangerous submission game.
McCullough is a Muay Thai champion in his own right and will want to keep this fight standing as much as possible. In his last fight, he got dropped by a nasty right hand by Patricky Freire at Bellator 36. The days of seeing McCullough as a serious contender on a major level are long gone, but he could still provide a challenge for upper-level guys. McCullough has never been submitted, but he’s never faced a grappling savant like Aoki.
As long as a fight remains standing McCullough has a chance to pull of the upset, but I don’t see it staying that way for long and Aoki will go to work and give him his first submission loss.
Featherweight: Tatsuya Kawajiri (27-7-2, 8-2 DREAM) vs. Joachim Hansen (22-10, 4-4 DREAM)
After getting demolished by Gilbert Melendez at Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley, Kawajiri quickly dispatched Drew Fickett and surprisingly made the announcement of moving to featherweight. Surprising news to many, especially since Kawajiri has been of the long standing big dogs of the lightweight division since Shooto and traditionally cut a lot of weight to make 155. It will be very interesting to see whether he can make the cut comfortably, but if he can he will be a handful for most.
Hansen is a well-rounded bad boy from Norway who made the move to featherweight with mixed results. After losing a close decision to Bibiano Fernandes and getting knocked out by Hiroyuki Takaya, he’s won his last three and seemed to have finally found his groove at his new weight in his decision win over Mitsuhiro Ishida.
Hansen’s has good grappling, but takedown defense has always been a soft spot and wrestling just happens to be Kawajiri’s best attribute. I don’t think he’ll be able to outgrapple Kawajiri like he was able to with Ishida. Kawajiri’s wrestling and brutal top game would be a problem for anyone at either weight. I have Kawajiri by bullying decision.
Featherweight: Takeshi Inoue (20-5, 1-1 DREAM) vs. Caol Uno (26-13-5, 2-2 DREAM):
After “Lion Takeshi” had a bit of rough 2010, losing his Shooto title a close decision to Hatsu Hioki and getting turned into a grappling dummy by Kazuyuki Miyata at DREAM.16. He has rebounded in a big way this year with strong KO’s over Shooto Pacfic Rim champion Taki Tsuchiya and DEEP featherweight champion Koichiro Matsumoto. Inoue is a rangy counter figher with heavy hands.
Uno had a rough UFC run and was welcomed back home at Dynamite!! 2010 by Kazuyuki Miyata’s german suplexes in his featherweight debut. At DREAM: Fight for Japan, he flashed vintage Uno grappling against “Wicky” Nishiura and came away with his first win since 2008.
It would be easy to choose Inoue, but despite his less than stellar record recently, I actually favor Uno in this. He’s a better grappler and will be smart enough to take it to the mat and avoid a prolonged striking battle. I have Uno by decision.
Welterweight: Kazushi Sakuraba (26-15-1, 2 NC, 3-5 DREAM) vs. Yan Cabral (9-0, Debut)
DREAM/FEG continues to roll Sakuraba out to the ring against his better judgment. In his last two matches, Mayhem Miller tapped the 42-year old in a shade over two minutes and at Dynamite!! 2010, he almost had his ear ripped off against Maruis Zaromskis. Cabral is an undefeated BJJ black belt from Nova Uniao who has submitted all of his opponents.
I expect this to be a grappling match, and Cabral should win this pretty easily. Sakuraba is at the end of his career and won’t be able to keep up with the younger fighter. Cabral by submission.
Lightweight: Satoru Kitaoka (28-10-9, Debut) vs. Willamy Freire (18-4, Debut)
Friere is a former Shooto welterweight champion who was immediately cut after his UFC debut for not showing any ability to stop takedowns. Waylon Lowe put Friere on his back at will. With that bad performance aside, Friere is a well-rounded fighter who can hang standing and on the mat.
A long-time Pancrase veteran, Kitaoka was gaining worldwide attention after leglocking his way through the Sengoku lightweight tournament and beating Takanori Gomi, but after demoralizing loses to Mizuto Hirota and Jorge Masvidal he was seriously considering retirement. Those thoughts were short-lived, as Kitaoka comes into this event on a three-fight win streak. Kitaoka has a very good top game and even better arsenal of submissions. His biggest flaw is his shoddy cardio. He gassed terribly against Hirota and Masvidal attempting takedowns and paid for it dearly.
“Chiquerim” might be coming into this event with the intent to prove that cutting him so soon was a mistake. Unfortunately for Friere, it does not get easier from here. Kitaoka is better wrestler than Lowe and will attempt takedowns aggressively. If he can fight off the takedowns until Kitaoka gasses, then he definitely has a shot. I don’t think he can last that long. Kitaoka by submission.
Middleweight: Kazuhiro Nakamura (15-10, 1-0) vs. Gerald Harris (18-4, Debut)
It is a battle between the two middling middleweights. Harris was a promising middleweight in the UFC before getting the tar beat out of him by Maiquel Falco and was subsequently (some say questionably) cut. Nakamura is currently riding a two-win fight streak and made his DREAM debut last July with a lackluster decision win over Karl Amoussou. Harris knows that he needs to win this fight in order to try to get back into the UFC.
Harris is the better wrestler and has more power in his hands, but the way he completely shut down against Falcao was a bit worrisome. Fortunately, Nakamura is not nearly as threatening standing. I think Harris should win this fairly comfortably. I have Harris down by TKO.
Bantamweight Grand Prix Quarterfinals: Hideo Tokoro (30-23-1, 8-6 DREAM) vs. Antonio Banuelos (18-7, Debut)
Tokoro is an exciting submission specialist who showed much sharper boxing when he won the Japan Bantamweight GP earlier this year. He looked very strong and motivated throughout the tournament, but as those familiar with Tokoro know the biggest concern is his inconsistency. He can look like a world beater one night and then look totally overwhelmed the next.
How much his boxing has improved will be tested against Banuelos. Banuelos has very strong standup and has more than held his own with some of the best fighters in the now-defunct WEC, but he’s shortest competitor in the tournament at 5-foot-3. His limited reach has been a hindrance.
Conventional wisdom would have you think that Banuelos should be the favorite, but Tokoro has looked on point this year. If he can stay on the outside and utilize his reach, he could steal this. I think Tokoro wins by close decision.
Bantamweight Grand Prix Quarterfinals: Bibiano Fernandes (8-3, 5-1 DREAM) vs. Takafumi Otsuka (12-8-1, 0-2 DREAM)
On paper, Bibiano Fernandes is the clear favorite to win the entire tournament. The BJJ black belt won the DREAM 2009 Featherweight GP under the old weight class of 138-pounds, beating Imanari, current Bellator champion Joe Warren and Hiroyuki Takaya. At Dynamite!! 2010, Fernandes lost a close split decision in a rematch with Takaya for the Featherweight title.
Otsuka was at one time considered a prospect that could potentially hang with the top fighters stateside because of his strong wrestling ability, but Otsuka has shown little stopping power and the inability to finish. Numerous times has he been able to dictate where a fight goes, only to let his opponent come back and steal the fight.
Fernandes has Otsuka totally outmatched offensively, but Otsuka is hard to finish. I expect Fernandes to throttle Otsuka with his constantly improving boxing in a decision.
Bantamweight Grand Prix Quarterfinals: Masakazu Imanari (23-9-2, 3-2 DREAM) vs. Abel Cullum (18-5, 0-1 DREAM)
Fighters like Imanari are a dying breed. He is an aggressive submission specialist with an affinity for leglocks. Unfortunately, his single-minded approach to MMA has been the reason he hasn’t been able to take that next step in his career. If he can get it to the mat, he can finish a fight in a flash, but high-level opponents know how to avoid his traps and force him to stand - where his offense is practically non-existent.
“The Silent Assassin” is no slouch himself when it comes to matwork, having 11 of his 18 wins come by submission. In his last DREAM appearance in 2009, Cullum put on an amazing grappling display with Hideo Tokoro before eventually succumbing to a rear-naked choke. But no matter confident someone is in their ground game, trying to go tit-for-tat with Imanari is just not advisable. I expect him to try and keep it standing.
I don’t think Cullum will be able to avoid playing Imanari’s game the whole night and given his shaky condition at the weigh-ins, it makes it easier to seeing Imanari win by submission.
Bantamweight Grand Prix Quarterfinals: Rodolfo Marques (13-1, Debut) vs. Yusup Saadulaev (8-0-1, Debut)
Both of these guys highly regarded bantamweight prospects, but neither have any trademark wins to their name. It is hard to get a gauge on where either fighter stands since neither have been tested against quality opponents, so how they perform here will be very interesting.
I can’t help but lean towards Marques since he has more experience and is a member of the heralded Nova Uniao camp. Marques by decision.