Frontpage News: Senser's NCAA/NFL Thoughts 10/22/12

[Senser81]

NCAA Thoughts
*How can Steve Spurrier’s QBs at South Carolina be so terrible? And if they are so obviously terrible, stop passing the football! Following in the SEC tradition of idiot coaches handing their opponent the game by having their inept QB pass the ball, Spurrier gave the game to Florida, who didn’t really have to do anything other than wait for SC to turn the ball over. The SEC is really strange this year. The second tier of teams is basically non-existent, as former tough teams (UGA, Tennessee, Arkansas) have been patsies. Texas A&M can give up 57 to Louisiana Tech in 3 quarters, but they can play LSU tough. Auburn lost to Vanderbilt. Florida plays Georgia next week, but will it be a true gauge of the #2 team in the country? Doubtful.

*Another team that’s impossible to figure is West Virginia. I can’t remember a team having such an utter fall from grace since Peter Gardere and Texas were smashed by UCLA back in the early 90s. Giving up 55 at home? Good work. And how good is Kansas State? Hard to say. They are usually pretty physical, and the Big12 conference has some soft teams. In years past, KSU were the “paper champion” team, but now it seems like the other teams in the Big12 are paper champions and KSU might run the table.

NFL Quick Hits
I only saw bits and pieces of games this weekend, so no long-winded analysis, just Skip Bayless-esque uninformed opinions…

*Vikings kept the pressure on the Packers and Bears by winning an important game against the Cards. I think the Vikings will be dangerous as long as Peterson and Harvin stay healthy, but those two guys usually end up getting hurt.

*Heath Miller has become Ben Roethlisberger’s go-to guy this year. Miller has always been underappreciated and is an excellent blocker, so its nice that he’s getting some receptions. But it might also be an indication as to how mediocre the Steelers offense has become.

*Aaron Rodgers took care of business against the Rams, even with his #1 RB and #1 WR out with injury. Randall Cobb seems to be adjusting well to the increased PT. He made some nice catches.

*Is Chris Johnson of the Titans the most unpredictable player in the NFL?

*Andy Dalton…not that good.

*The Pats tried to give the game away to the Jets, but the Jets didn’t want it, with both their defense then their offense making big mistakes at the end of the game. Kind of a terrible game all-around, a perfect microcosm of the 2012 NFL season. The Patriots really aren’t that good, and their secondary is terrible. Sanchez took advantage of that to a certain degree, but still wasn’t good enough to deliver the knockout blow. Phil Simms made a rare astute comment, asking why Tim Tebow wasn’t put in during the goalline situations in the 4th quarter. Sanchez was terrible in the redzone. Then at the end of regulation, with the Patriots offense doing nothing for most of the 2nd half and pinned at their own 20 with 1:30 left, the Jets decide to go into deep zone coverage. Why do teams do this when the opponent only needs a FG? Three Brady passes later, the Pats have gained 47 yards and are in FG range.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

The Jets sprinkled in Tebow nicely on the opening drive, including a nice run inside the ten to set up a TD, and then we never saw him again.

I get the feeling Rex didn't want him to begin with, and wants to limit the distraction as much as possible, which is why he barely plays him. It's not working though. Tebow is so good, that he makes an impact anyway with the few opportunities he gets. And Sanchez is so bad, people would be calling for the backup no matter who it was.

What Rex needs to realize, is he doesn't even need to start Tebow to satiate the people calling for Tebow. Most people realize Tebow as the full time QB is not a great idea unless you are totally desperate with nothing to lose (Denver last season). But failing to utilize Tebow near the goaline and in short yardage, and even on some first downs, is just not using your roster to it's full capability. Even if you didn't ask for this mess, you have it, so use it.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

*West Virginia's fall from grace shouldn't be shocking...what should be shocking is their complete lack of scoring in the past two weeks. K-State and TTech completely shut down an offense that was firing on all cylinders. TTech confused and pressured Smith all day and took away WVU's bread and butter. Against K-State, you could tell Smith starting pressing and it fell right into K-State's plan defensively.

*An aside...Collin Klein is fun to watch. He is going to score 40+ touchdowns this year. In a year void of Heisman candidates, even a loss should maintain Klein's Heisman candidacy. He is having a year that reminds me of Tebow's 2007 when he scored 55 touchdowns, and no one really noticed the shear volume of points scored until late in the season. Klein won't score as many through the air as Tebow did, but he should maintain his pace on the ground. K-State successfully maneuvered around their schedule...they survived the "look ahead" game @ Iowa State and blew out the 'Neers on the road the next week.

*Florida is straight nasty on defense. They do it with no frills or fancy shit. None of their players are projected first round types, but they are deep, talented, and nasty. The coaching staff's ability to make adjustments, especially at the half is just impressive to watch. The front four basically plays contain all game and just begs the poor SEC QB play to beat them and Florida just capitalizes on mistakes.

*I love seeing Oregon State play...but it is obvious they have a regression to the mean coming soon, sadly. With road games against Washington, Stanford, and a game at home versus Oregon coming up in the next month...that flawless record could soon come back to a 9-3, 8-4 season...they are a tough, gritty team though...and Mike Riley is a coach that gets those magical 10-2 type seasons out of his teams in Corvallis every once in a while. They have some very underrated talents on the team, starting with Marcus Wheaton at wide receiver.

*Notre Dame's front seven, like Florida, is straight nasty...it is amazing how many true sophomores are the catalysts behind that defense. Louis Nix and Stephon Tuitt are studly on the DL and it makes everything look easy for Manti Te'o at linebacker as he's able to do whatever he wants back there to great results.

*Cam Newton is having an awful season, and just as you'd expect, he blames everyone but himself, while wearing a Wookie Sweater.

*This season is a culmination of successes for Rick Smith...the guy is a very very good football mind and knows good players when he sees them. Also, it should be noted that JJ Watt is the leader in the club house for defensive player of the year. I can't recall a pro player having this much of an effect on another teams passing game like he has. It isn't all about sack numbers. QBs avoid throwing to his side and think twice before cocking back and throwing to his side. He is Howie Long resurrected. What a player.

*I love the style of play the Buccs have. Schiano can hang in the NFL. Just needs some defensive talent. Carl Nicks...worth every penny.

 

[BigBucs]

Josh Freeman, all he needed was the keys :smugruss: Its happening right before your eyes :bsmug:

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Josh Freeman, all he needed was the keys :smugruss: Its happening right before your eyes :bsmug:

What exactly is happening before our eyes? A mediocre career at best?

Nice clock management, btw.

 

[BigBucs]

Got one :yeah: In due time my friend. Watch a game or few, primetime game Thursday night.

 

[NAHSTE]

NCAA Thoughts
*How can Steve Spurrier’s QBs at South Carolina be so terrible?

This question has befuddled me since he got there. He is still a great personality and sound bite, but as a play caller he is such a far cry from the "guru" he used to be. He used to be an elite offensive mind, who was wildly successful even with lesser QB talent, because his play calling was a difference maker. Now, it seems like he needs his backs to combine for 200 yards, and his immensely talented defense to dominate, just to squeeze out a win.

By the way, here's a vid of glenwillett jumping off the Connor Shaw bandwagon:

:natsplayoffs:

The SEC is really strange this year. The second tier of teams is basically non-existent, as former tough teams (UGA, Tennessee, Arkansas) have been patsies.

We are going on year 2 or 3 of this phenomenon. Just a "perfect storm" if you will of roster attrition, coaching turmoil and just general down-cycles for certain programs. This is the worst Auburn team in program history, Kentucky and Ole Miss have been awful (though Freeze seems to have the Rebs pointed in the right direction), Tennessee has been really bad for the entirety of the Dooley era (has not beaten a non-Vandy conference foe in 20 chances now, lol) and Arkansas had the wheels fall off when Petrino decided getting reach-around HJ's on a motorcyle was an acceptable off-season recreational activity.

Bomani Jones made a good point this weekend, at year's end there will be at least three SEC jobs open, maybe four, and none of them are that desirable. Who would want the Auburn, Arkansas or Tennessee job at this point, much less Kentucky? The former three come with championship level expectations, but limited access to championship caliber talent.

With the scholly limits and MAC/C-USA/MWC/etc. playing on national TV every week now, I don't think the mid-tier BCS programs are nearly as talented or deep as they were 5-10 years ago. There are just more viable options for the under-the-radar type recruits to get PT and exposure elsewhere these days.

That goes across the board, and the Big Ten is probably the most glaring example, but if you look at the Pac 12 and SEC you'll see some absolute shit in the mid and lower tiers these days.

*Florida is straight nasty on defense. They do it with no frills or fancy shit. None of their players are projected first round types, but they are deep, talented, and nasty. The coaching staff's ability to make adjustments, especially at the half is just impressive to watch. The front four basically plays contain all game and just begs the poor SEC QB play to beat them and Florida just capitalizes on mistakes.

Florida has the best defense that I have seen so far. It was easy to forget with how scatterbrained they have been as a program for the last couple years, including the failed Charlie Weis experiment, but that cupboard was pretty loaded with defensive talent and depth. Bostic is a monster, might be the best LB in the conference (if it's not Kevin Minter, but I oh so homerly digress).

It will be interesting to see how much more they let Driskell take on as the year progresses, but for the time being I think they have enough talent up front on both sides of the ball to win games how they have been winning them. Muschamp is molding that team in his mentor's image, and it's downright scary to see (another of) that type of team being assembled in the conference. I would say "at least it's in the other division" but they are LSU's annual rival, so ... fuck.

 

[Senser81]

including the failed Charlie Weis experiment

Speaking of failed Charlie Weis experiments, did anyone see the Kansas kickoff coverage team? They seemed to consist of 11 backup offensive linemen with the same body type as Weis. Oklahoma's return guys could outrun them going backwards. It was terrible.

 

[NAHSTE]

Speaking of failed Charlie Weis experiments, did anyone see the Kansas kickoff coverage team? They seemed to consist of 11 backup offensive linemen with the same body type as Weis. Oklahoma's return guys could outrun them going backwards. It was terrible.

Read an article that said Weis has given up on this season and no longer even works with his senior players during practice. That was a couple weeks back, haven't heard a follow up, but jesus christ this guy is a piece of work.

 

[Champ]

lol Geno Smith

 

[Senser81]

Which Heisman campaign went downhill quicker...

Geno Smith - 2012

Tavian Banks - 1997

 

[Atlas]

Don't be surprised by the struggles of the offense, its a rhythm and tempo offense, so when they go three and out and have to sit through multiple scoring drives by the other team, they get frustrated and start forcing the issue... The entire positional coaching staff is still pretty green, especially on D (they played 26 different players on defense against KSU and over 30 against TTU), so no realists really expected WVU to win the B12 (I predicted 8-4/9-3)... Geno is still a good QB, and Tavon is still a good WR, they are just being let down by the other players (and the coaches are to blame for that)...

 

[Senser81]

*West Virginia's fall from grace shouldn't be shocking...what should be shocking is their complete lack of scoring in the past two weeks. K-State and TTech completely shut down an offense that was firing on all cylinders. TTech confused and pressured Smith all day and took away WVU's bread and butter. Against K-State, you could tell Smith starting pressing and it fell right into K-State's plan defensively..

This is my completely uneducated take on the WVU situation...

WVU offense can do 4 things: throw screens/hitches against isolated defenders, have QB run the ball, run ball up the middle with RB, throw deep.

It seems like most defenses try to guess what WVU is going to do, and they'll gamble accordingly. Play up to stop the short pass, blitz the QB, etc. From what I've seen of KSU and TT, they didn't gamble at all. They basically said we aren't going to let you throw deep, and we aren't going to give you the gimme 10-yard run up the middle, so good luck having your QB run all game and complete 10 short passes in a row to score. They kept everything in front of them and tackled well when WVU completed short passes.

 

[Champ]

Don't be surprised by the struggles of the offense, its a rhythm and tempo offense, so when they go three and out and have to sit through multiple scoring drives by the other team, they get frustrated and start forcing the issue... The entire positional coaching staff is still pretty green, especially on D (they played 26 different players on defense against KSU and over 30 against TTU), so no realists really expected WVU to win the B12 (I predicted 8-4/9-3)... Geno is still a good QB, and Tavon is still a good WR, they are just being let down by the other players (and the coaches are to blame for that)...

West Virginia is gonna lose to Ok State, Oklahoma and Iowa State watch. Geno Smith blows.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

College football is funny...the spread has taken the nation by storm, but, what wins football games especially at the championship level is going back to the basics...run game + defense.

Focusing on defense for a bit...

Defensive line play is vital in college football. In nearly every game on any particular Saturday, the team with the better defensive line wins. In the college game, the DL, more than defending the run, is vital to PASS DEFENSE. It is funny that the SEC still prides itself off such a seemingly insignificant stat (yards per attempt defense) while the Big XII and Pac12 have all but abandon it (sans a team or two each year that jumps up). The Big XII with the bubble screen identity or the half assed pump n go once the safeties rotate up makes for great OVER plays but is laughable when it comes to competing with the big dogs of college football. The Pac10, too, but with more of a mixed identity, compounded with recent hires of RichRod, Mike Leach, and...Jim Mora.

What separates the SEC from those conferences is the SEC not only features the defensive lines that can get after you or contain (the lines are often jacked up with collegiate talent that is deep and versatile) which takes away from the lollipop quarterback play and mickey mouse gadget plays, but rugged old school style defensive backs that constantly deny the lollipop short stuff. What the SEC ends up being able to do is take away more than half the offense against teams from the Pac12 and Big XII. If you don't get the football across the first down marker, your offense is deemed immobile.

Last year, Alabama, LSU, South Carolina, and Georgia were at the top of that stat by year's end. One of the few outliers was the 2010 Auburn team that was very much an on-or-off defense.

This year...Alabama, LSU, and Florida are all currently in the Top 5 of the category nationally. Also, look at QBR as an indicator...all three teams lead the nation in QBR defense.

If there is a team at the top of that category to look at not in the SEC...Florida State. Also, Notre Dame, who is sitting right around the Top 10 nationally...the Oklahoma and USC games will end up being very telling if Notre Dame is legit or not...sounds like "no duh" talk, but if Notre Dame is going to win those two games, it'll be due to their ability to stop the short stuff that Oklahoma and USC often use in high volume with wide outs that often are near the top of the nation in YAC.

It is also a reason why I've been an advocate for matchups against the likes of Stanford (with Andrew Luck) or Boise State (with Kellen Moore) as those would have been the most intriguing matchups in any given BCS year. The complex passing schemes those teams run with QBs both savvy and accurate and passing trees more complex than the now-traditional lollipop dink and dunk stuff that is featured heavily in college football would have provided the SEC opponent with a real test (look at Boise State versus Georgia recently).

 

[Atlas]

This is my completely uneducated take on the WVU situation...

WVU offense can do 4 things: throw screens/hitches against isolated defenders, have QB run the ball, run ball up the middle with RB, throw deep.

It seems like most defenses try to guess what WVU is going to do, and they'll gamble accordingly. Play up to stop the short pass, blitz the QB, etc. From what I've seen of KSU and TT, they didn't gamble at all. They basically said we aren't going to let you throw deep, and we aren't going to give you the gimme 10-yard run up the middle, so good luck having your QB run all game and complete 10 short passes in a row to score. They kept everything in front of them and tackled well when WVU completed short passes.

Geno almost never runs, so yes, that was completely uneducated... :dd:

Geno is starting to realize its all on him now, since the D isn't going to stop anyone and the offense will have to put up points to stay in games... the pressure has gotten to him these last two weeks and he started locking onto his primaries and forcing throws... Like I said, it falls on the coaches to correct this, but considering how inexperienced they are, its gonna be rough...

 

[Glenbino]

Geno almost never runs, so yes, that was completely uneducated... :dd:

Geno is starting to realize its all on him now, since the D isn't going to stop anyone and the offense will have to put up points to stay in games... the pressure has gotten to him these last two weeks and he started locking onto his primaries and forcing throws... Like I said, it falls on the coaches to correct this, but considering how inexperienced they are, its gonna be rough...

Maybe Geno is just un-coachable?

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

This is my completely uneducated take on the WVU situation...

WVU offense can do 4 things: throw screens/hitches against isolated defenders, have QB run the ball, run ball up the middle with RB, throw deep.

It seems like most defenses try to guess what WVU is going to do, and they'll gamble accordingly. Play up to stop the short pass, blitz the QB, etc. From what I've seen of KSU and TT, they didn't gamble at all. They basically said we aren't going to let you throw deep, and we aren't going to give you the gimme 10-yard run up the middle, so good luck having your QB run all game and complete 10 short passes in a row to score. They kept everything in front of them and tackled well when WVU completed short passes.

Read my most recent post.

TTech has the #7 rated pass defense in regards to YPA in the nation right now...it should've been no shock that they were able to win, and in such convincing fashion. Tommy Tuberville's Auburn teams were often in the Top 10 by season's end in this category.

K-State was a bit different. K-State doesn't rank very high in this category at all...but, as Atlas and myself have suggested, the K-State game became a game where the offense forced way too much and it just fell right into what K-State wanted, especially when K-State knew they could move the ball at will against that shitty defense.

I'd look to see WVU get back on track this week against TCU.

 

[Mogriffjr]

The Jets sprinkled in Tebow nicely on the opening drive, including a nice run inside the ten to set up a TD, and then we never saw him again.

I get the feeling Rex didn't want him to begin with, and wants to limit the distraction as much as possible, which is why he barely plays him. It's not working though. Tebow is so good, that he makes an impact anyway with the few opportunities he gets. And Sanchez is so bad, people would be calling for the backup no matter who it was.

What Rex needs to realize, is he doesn't even need to start Tebow to satiate the people calling for Tebow. Most people realize Tebow as the full time QB is not a great idea unless you are totally desperate with nothing to lose (Denver last season). But failing to utilize Tebow near the goaline and in short yardage, and even on some first downs, is just not using your roster to it's full capability. Even if you didn't ask for this mess, you have it, so use it.

The Jets have absolutely no idea how to utilize the talent they have. For example a team like the Patriots, they gameplan and mix up their roster (especially RB's) accordingly. With this pats front, a guy like Greene wasn't a good play from the get...why not play more McKnight who's faster and shiftier? They failed to make that adjustment. With Tebow, they lined him up in the backfield but mostly everytime, they optioned out Mark to WR...either keep them both in the backfield to give the defense something to thnik about or don't do it at all. With Tebow, he has that dual threat going so you have to put that option in the back of the defenses mind and the Jets aren't doing that enough.

 

[Glenbino]

The Jets have absolutely no idea how to utilize the talent they have. For example a team like the Patriots, they gameplan and mix up their roster (especially RB's) accordingly. With this pats front, a guy like Greene wasn't a good play from the get...why not play more McKnight who's faster and shiftier? They failed to make that adjustment. With Tebow, they lined him up in the backfield but mostly everytime, they optioned out Mark to WR...either keep them both in the backfield to give the defense something to thnik about or don't do it at all. With Tebow, he has that dual threat going so you have to put that option in the back of the defenses mind and the Jets aren't doing that enough.

McKnight still doesn't understand that he has to get to hole immediately in that offense or he'll be stuck. I counted at least two times yesterday where he was caught by an outside backer because he was busy making a move on the backfield. Even though it was only twice he only had 7 carries so it was more than a quarter of the time he was running the ball.

Then in OT he just nonchalantly ran OOB at the 15... I know there was a guy on him with the angle but in OT when it's your last possession and you need to score a TD you gotta at least try and put a move on the defender or go heads up with him. McKnight's awareness as a ball carrier has been disappointing since the day he stepped onto the USC campus.