Good Draft or Bad Draft: 2000 Oakland Raiders

[Warner2BruceTD]

Janikowski is 33rd all time in FG%. Every single player ahead of him is either active or a contemporary of his. How many of those guys were taken in the first round? Zero. How many went undrafted? I'm not going to check, but I think it's safe to assume a majority of them.

disclaimer - Janikowski probably attempts more 50+ yarders than most, so you can move him up a few spots to compensate if you like. The bottom line is i've never really considered him an elite kicker, and the numbers back it up. I remember early in his career, when he was wildly inconsistent, there was always talk that he would have been replaced if he had not been a first rounder.

 

[Aso]

If you're looking at it statistically it looks like his first year and then a couple seasons right in the middle of his career are the "only bad" seasons he had. His long field goals clearly do bump his % down and It bumps it down a significant amount.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

I will counter that some of you are overrating Janikowski.

He's been an ok kicker. Not great. Some years, he wasn't very good at all. He's never finished among the leaders in FG%, but has finished near the bottom at times. He made one Pro Bowl. Never an All Pro.

He's been around a long time and does a serviceable job. He's made some really long kicks and is a weapon from anywhere across the 50. But if i'm taking a kicker in round one, I need more than that. I need a dominant performer, and Janikowski has not ever been that.

Lechler is one of the greatest punters of all time. Janikowski isn't even close to being an all time great kicker and guys like him have gone undrafted countless times.

I think you underrate him.

He was an All-Pro in 2011, FWIW.

He holds NFL records for the longest field goal, most 60+ yard FGs in history, most 50 and 40 yard FGs in a game. He'll finish somewhere in the 30's (perhaps a little higher, depends on his finish) in All-Time FG percentage (for reference, the difference between Top 15 (say, Vinatieri) and Janikowski is two percentage points. Depending on when his career ends, he will be somewhere in the Top 15 in points scored All-Time (there are currently five active players with more points than Janikowski, and all have at least 4 years on him). He'll finish his career as one of the very best kickers of his era (behind perhaps, 2-3 guys), and one of the top 10 best of all-time.

You are looking at too many shades of grey when it comes to grading a team...IMO, its either pass or fail. You either hit or you didn't. In the Raiders case in 2000...a draft that was given F's across the board by the pundits, the draft turned out as a pass, IMO.

They drafted a kicker in round one...and he will finish his career among the best at his position in the league. You can say what you want about drafting a kicker...I think it sucks to draft a kicker, especially high, but there is no doubt that Janikowski as a first rounder is a hit. You can say that "you could have drafted Rackers, Lindell, or Graham" or any other serviceable kicker in 2000...but those guys didn't play for the team that drafted them or first signed them or were journeymen playing for, in Graham's case, half of the league throughout his career. They are journeymen...good ones, but journeymen. Janikowski will essentially be a Raider for life.

As for Lechler...he will end his career, at WORST considered the #2 punter of All-Time behind Ray Guy, and even his numbers are better than Guy himself. He could easily be considered the greatest punter of All-Time.

With that said, as I mentioned before...a draft is either a hit or a miss. You pass or fail...

IMO, the Raiders pass...its a quirky, odd draft, but two of the best specialists ever, and a serviceable wide out is a pass from me.

In retrospect, the Patriots lucked into Superman Tom Brady in 2000, and their draft is considered a rousing success...which is should be...yet, they had no one worth a damn from that draft other than Brady. They got one season of bad starts out of Greg Robinson-Randall, JR Redmond who was always injured, a backup fullback in Patrick Pass...yet, they got Tom Brady...big success.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

If you're looking at it statistically it looks like his first year and then a couple seasons right in the middle of his career are the "only bad" seasons he had. His long field goals clearly do bump his % down and It bumps it down a significant amount.

I don't disagree with any of this. What i'm saying, is to justify a K in round one, he has to be truly upper level elite. He isn't.

Also, to say a draft is good where the two best players are a P & K, you need both of those players to be elite. One is, one isn't. A WR like Porter isn't enough to compensate. The rest was utter trash.

For me to call this a good draft, Janikowski would need to be significantly better, Porter would need a longer career, or it would need two or three more serviceable guys. It comes up short on all fronts. Lechler is a punter. A PUNTER. I don't care how good he is, he's still a PUNTER.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I think you underrate him.

He was an All-Pro in 2011, FWIW.

He holds NFL records for the longest field goal, most 60+ yard FGs in history, most 50 and 40 yard FGs in a game. He'll finish somewhere in the 30's (perhaps a little higher, depends on his finish) in All-Time FG percentage (for reference, the difference between Top 15 (say, Vinatieri) and Janikowski is two percentage points. Depending on when his career ends, he will be somewhere in the Top 15 in points scored All-Time (there are currently five active players with more points than Janikowski, and all have at least 4 years on him). He'll finish his career as one of the very best kickers of his era (behind perhaps, 2-3 guys), and one of the top 10 best of all-time.

You are looking at too many shades of grey when it comes to grading a team...IMO, its either pass or fail. You either hit or you didn't. In the Raiders case in 2000...a draft that was given F's across the board by the pundits, the draft turned out as a pass, IMO.

They drafted a kicker in round one...and he will finish his career among the best at his position in the league. You can say what you want about drafting a kicker...I think it sucks to draft a kicker, especially high, but there is no doubt that Janikowski as a first rounder is a hit. You can say that "you could have drafted Rackers, Lindell, or Graham" or any other serviceable kicker in 2000...but those guys didn't play for the team that drafted them or first signed them or were journeymen playing for, in Graham's case, half of the league throughout his career. They are journeymen...good ones, but journeymen. Janikowski will essentially be a Raider for life.

As for Lechler...he will end his career, at WORST considered the #2 punter of All-Time behind Ray Guy, and even his numbers are better than Guy himself. He could easily be considered the greatest punter of All-Time.

With that said, as I mentioned before...a draft is either a hit or a miss. You pass or fail...

IMO, the Raiders pass...its a quirky, odd draft, but two of the best specialists ever, and a serviceable wide out is a pass from me.

In retrospect, the Patriots lucked into Superman Tom Brady in 2000, and their draft is considered a rousing success...which is should be...yet, they had no one worth a damn from that draft other than Brady. They got one season of bad starts out of Greg Robinson-Randall, JR Redmond who was always injured, a backup fullback in Patrick Pass...yet, they got Tom Brady...big success.

He wasn't an AP All Pro in 2011, but that's nitpicking and even if you want to count the Sporting News All Pro, one Pro Bowl and one fringe All Pro is not enough to justify a first round pick for a kicker. He needs to be special, and Janikowski is not special. He's good. Not great. And like I said, some years he was pretty bad.

If you are telling me I have to choose pass/fail, I suppose I pick pass. But with the lowest C- possible.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

For some more reference and context.

Vinatieri was a 2-time Pro Bowler and 2-Time All-Pro (I think most would consider him the best of his era, along with David Akers). Ryan Longwell never made either. Olindo Mare had one each. Matt Stover has one each. John Carney made two Pro Bowls, One All-Pro. Jason Hansen is a two-time Pro Bowler, no All-Pros.

These are his contemporaries...all legitimate GREAT All-Time kickers...his accolades, will be on par with the greats of his era, and All-Time. You can use your own objective terminology to try and call him some shade of grey...but the numbers will dictate he's on par with the best of his era and All-Time.

David Akers is probably the most accomplished...he went to 6 Pro Bowls and was a two time All-Pro.

 

[Tailback U]

I think the Raiders reached a little bit which is why I don't think it was a good draft.

They could have probably waited until round 2 or 3 to pick Janikowski. Lechler in the 5th was a great pick now that we've seen his career.

With that said, suring up the kicking game for over a decade deserves credit.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

For some more reference and context.

Vinatieri was a 2-time Pro Bowler and 2-Time All-Pro (I think most would consider him the best of his era, along with David Akers). Ryan Longwell never made either. Olindo Mare had one each. Matt Stover has one each. John Carney made two Pro Bowls, One All-Pro. Jason Hansen is a two-time Pro Bowler, no All-Pros.

These are his contemporaries...all legitimate GREAT All-Time kickers...his accolades, will be on par with the greats of his era, and All-Time. You can use your own objective terminology to try and call him some shade of grey...but the numbers will dictate he's on par with the best of his era and All-Time.

David Akers is probably the most accomplished...he went to 6 Pro Bowls and was a two time All-Pro.

...and every single one of them would be a bad first round pick. And Janikowski isn't even as good as most of them.

We aren't going to agree, here. To me, if you're going to take a kicker in the first round, he needs to be damn near the best of all time to justify it. I don't think Janikowski is even close to that standard. He's a little bit above average when you look at his entire career.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I'd rather have a solid starter type at any "real" position in the first round than an elite K (and I don't even think Janikowski is elite. but for the sake of the argument, let's call him that).

I think the Raiders could have cobbled together two or three different kickers off waiver wires or late draft picks over the last 13 years or whatever it is and gotten similar (or even better) performance from the kicker position. Many teams did so. Or like Tailback said, waited a round or two to take Janikowski, because nobody else was going to take him that high.

 

[FirstTimer]

This smiley sums up this draft:

:kanye:

 

[FirstTimer]

For some more reference and context.

Vinatieri was a 2-time Pro Bowler and 2-Time All-Pro (I think most would consider him the best of his era, along with David Akers). Ryan Longwell never made either. Olindo Mare had one each. Matt Stover has one each. John Carney made two Pro Bowls, One All-Pro. Jason Hansen is a two-time Pro Bowler, no All-Pros.

These are his contemporaries...all legitimate GREAT All-Time kickers...his accolades, will be on par with the greats of his era, and All-Time. You can use your own objective terminology to try and call him some shade of grey...but the numbers will dictate he's on par with the best of his era and All-Time.

David Akers is probably the most accomplished...he went to 6 Pro Bowls and was a two time All-Pro.

I think if you are trying to rationalize taking a kicker in the first round comparing him to guys like Akers and Adam Viniatari, who went undrafted, doesn't really help your point. I'm not even sure Janikowski is better than Robbie Gould(another undrafted player), let alone worthy of a 1st round pick.

 

[FirstTimer]

Overall draft grade: Bad.

Average kicker
Average WR
No name flame out
Great Punter
No name flame out
No name flame out

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

I think if you are trying to rationalize taking a kicker in the first round comparing him to guys like Akers and Adam Viniatari, who went undrafted, doesn't really help your point. I'm not even sure Janikowski is better than Robbie Gould(another undrafted player), let alone worthy of a 1st round pick.

Why take Peyton Manning #1 when you can get Tom Brady in the 6th?

 

[FirstTimer]

Why take Peyton Manning #1 when you can get Tom Brady in the 6th?

....

Strong comparison.

:cano:


Historically most great QB's have been higher round picks. While historically, and even the contemporaries you chose for Janikowski, who were the best kickers were later round picks or undrafted.

On top of that, Janikowski isn't in the class of player of either of those guys and isn't one of the greatest kickers ever.

Let me play this game though:
Why take Janikowski in the first when I could have signed David Akers off the street?

 

[Glenbino]

For some more reference and context.

Vinatieri was a 2-time Pro Bowler and 2-Time All-Pro (I think most would consider him the best of his era, along with David Akers). Ryan Longwell never made either. Olindo Mare had one each. Matt Stover has one each. John Carney made two Pro Bowls, One All-Pro. Jason Hansen is a two-time Pro Bowler, no All-Pros.

These are his contemporaries...all legitimate GREAT All-Time kickers...his accolades, will be on par with the greats of his era, and All-Time. You can use your own objective terminology to try and call him some shade of grey...but the numbers will dictate he's on par with the best of his era and All-Time.

David Akers is probably the most accomplished...he went to 6 Pro Bowls and was a two time All-Pro.

Borderline groan worthy for the Jason Elam omission.

 

[Aso]

It's funny because Sebas has been a starter kicker since 2000 just like Akers and Sebas has almost twice as many 50+ yard field goal attempts. Elam has been a starting kicker 4 more seasons than Sebas and has 10 less attempts from 50+ yards out and yet his career % is right around the same ballpark. You're kidding yourself if you think that Sebas isn't one of the best kickers of all time.

 

[ram29jackson]

at least the Raiders got a woman out of the front office and can start to be taken a little more seriously now

 

[Aso]

Since 2006 Sebas is 32/52 from 50+ yards out (61.5%) and has attempted 11, 7, 8, 7, 10, and 9 - 50+ yards attempts in those seasons. Thats A LOT of attempts from that distance with a damn good percentage. Akers is fucking 24/47 in his CAREER from 50+ yards out.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

Since 2006 Sebas is 32/52 from 50+ yards out (61.5%) and has attempted 11, 7, 8, 7, 10, and 9 - 50+ yards attempts in those seasons. Thats A LOT of attempts from that distance with a damn good percentage. Akers is fucking 24/47 in his CAREER from 50+ yards out.

When his career is done, he will have more career 60+ and 50+ field goals than anyone in the history of the game. Going to be tough to reach Jason Hanson's 40+, but that fucko has been in the league for 21 years now, but Janikowski is still within striking distance if he can maintain longevity.

 

[Hasselbeck]

There's no way to take a kicker in Round 1, I don't care how incredible his leg was, and justify it being a good draft.

They saved face with Lechler later in the draft.. but the SeaBass pick in R1 was awful.

The 99' Raiders went 8-8, not like this team was a shanked FG away from finishing Super Bowl Champs at 18-1/17-2 or something. As Larry said, they passed on Shaun Alexander - for a kicker. Their RB's at the time? Ty Wheatley and Napoleon Kaufman. Rich Gannon, though he produced very well in their next couple of seasons.. was 34... why not take Chad Pennington and plan for your future?

I'm sorry though, an 8-8 team should not be taking a KICKER .. 17th overall. Ever.