Greinke to Dodgers 6yr/147M

[Goober]

This contract is an absolute joke. Paying a guy $25 million per year for a guy that has a career record of 91-77, an ERA or 3.77, and history of mental issues? :lol:

This contract is nowhere near market value. I look forward to seeing this nutcase fail miserably in LA.

/Rant

Why is it an overpay?
The market was set by the Hamels contract. It's paying Greinke to be a 5 win player, for the next six years, something he has consistently done throughout his career.

 

[Glenbino]

I expect him to have pretty good numbers in that ballpark actually.. Not to mention he'll be back to facing NL hitting.

Still.. I see all this money the Dodgers spent and they're still just a WC team to me.

 

[FedEx227]

At the end of the day, most of the "buying a championship" teams fail because they lack long term flexibility and depth. Too often, they'll overplay veterans with big deals when a younger player is a better option. Honestly, looking at the LAD team, it's nice, but it's not an oh my god shut the league down these guys rule scenario. Even then, the last time I really had that opinion of a team, the 2011 Boston Red Sox happened.

 

[mcstl25]

Why is it an overpay?
The market was set by the Hamels contract. It's paying Greinke to be a 5 win player, for the next six years, something he has consistently done throughout his career.

Hamels is a much better pitcher. Significantly higher WAR, lower ERA, and isn't a mental case. Greinke had one great year and he's been living off that ever since. His ERA over the past three years hasn't been much better than the NL average. Add to that, Hamels has a ton of post season pitching experience and has been great except for a few rough starts in 2009. Greinke crumbled like a cookie in his very limited post season experience, as you would expect from someone who can't handle the spotlight.

 

[Goober]

Hamels is a much better pitcher. Significantly higher WAR, lower ERA, and isn't a mental case. Greinke had one great year and he's been living off that ever since. His ERA over the past three years hasn't been much better than the NL average. Add to that, Hamels has a ton of post season pitching experience and has been great except for a few rough starts in 2009. Greinke crumbled like a cookie in his very limited post season experience, as you would expect from someone who can't handle the spotlight.

I think you need to check your facts. Greinke's career WAR is 35.8, Hamels is 27.4. They are the same age. Over the last five years, the only season that Hamels has had a higher WAR then Greinke was in 2011, when Greinke missed six weeks of the regular season with a freak injury. The mental issues aren't an issue, and I assume just trolling (?).

 

[mcstl25]

I think you need to check your facts. Greinke's career WAR is 35.8, Hamels is 27.4. They are the same age. Over the last five years, the only season that Hamels has had a higher WAR then Greinke was in 2011, when Greinke missed six weeks of the regular season with a freak injury. The mental issues aren't an issue, and I assume just trolling (?).

Another reason why have a hard time putting much weight in to WAR... baseball reference (which is what I was using) has Greinke at 7.9 WAR over the past three year; Fangraphs has him at 14.2. And no, the mental issue thing isn't trolling. He has a history of depression, anxiety attacks, and emotional instability; that is a fact. Good to see that he seems to have it under control for the most part, but who knows when the issues will surface again.

 

[Goober]

If I had a dollar every time someone foolishly used BR WAR on VSN...

 

[Villain]

Still that payroll is already huge and I still don't think they're better than the Giants.

:jonesy: Okay, Glen.

And no, the mental issue thing isn't trolling. He has a history of depression, anxiety attacks, and emotional instability; that is a fact. Good to see that he seems to have it under control for the most part, but who knows when the issues will surface again.

Yes the mental thing is trolling. It was a problem before he was a Cy Young winner. He got his head on right and he's consistently been one of the top pitchers in MLB ever since. Move beyond ERA and WAR. Check FIP, HR/9, and his strikeout rates. He's also been durable and consistent, not to mention he's only 29.

 

[Glenbino]

:jonesy: Okay, Glen.


Yes the mental thing is trolling. It was a problem before he was a Cy Young winner. He got his head on right and he's consistently been one of the top pitchers in MLB ever since. Move beyond ERA and WAR. Check FIP, HR/9, and his strikeout rates. He's also been durable and consistent, not to mention he's only 29.

So Zack Greinke immediately makes you better? Or is it going to be the corpse of Carl Crawford?

You guys collapsed down the stretch AFTER taking on all that payroll and lost the division by 8 games. Don't see how adding a 5 WAR starter magically makes them the better team all of the sudden.

 

[Villain]

So Zack Greinke immediately makes you better?

Yes.

You guys collapsed down the stretch AFTER taking on all that payroll and lost the division by 8 games. Don't see how adding a 5 WAR starter magically makes them the better team all of the sudden.

Uhhhhhhh if the Dodgers won 5 more games they would've been in the playoffs. Simple concept, really.

 

[Glenbino]

Yes.

I meant better than the Giants.. Which is what you inserted your laughing gif to me saying earlier.

Uhhhhhhh if the Dodgers won 5 more games they would've been in the playoffs. Simple concept, really.

Yeah.. As a wild card team, behind the Giants. Exactly what I said. Simple concept, really. :smug:

 

[Glenbino]

That said.. I obviously wanted the guy back and I don't think the salary is un-reasonable by any stretch so I'm obviously a tad bitter.

At least I've known the Angels have been out of this for awhile now and time has softened the blow a bit. Also super stoked he didn't wind up in Texas.

 

[Goober]

Replacing Joe Blanton with Zack Greinke is a pretty big improvement.

 

[Villain]

I meant better than the Giants.. Which is what you inserted your laughing gif to me saying earlier.

I'm pretty confident that the Dodgers are about a million times better than the Giants. Unless of course you think that a team can continue to get carried by Marco Scutaro and Angel Pagan as they enter their 40s... Belt seemed to learn how to hit at the end of the season, but then so did Loney 2 years ago. I really believe that the Giants got hot at the perfect time because I doubt this unit will continue their success.

I don't want to make excuses for the Dodger's post-trade failures but (I will anyways). Kemp was hurt, A-Gone was pressing (and he admits such), Hanley was fine, AJ Ellis figuratively fell off a cliff, and it was only Luis Cruz and Ethier that were hitting worth a damn towards the end (and still not great). The Dodgers roster had one of the most insane rollercoaster seasons I've ever seen and they were at least able to finish on a high note -- winning 7 out of 8 in addition to series wins against the Giants. Anyways, if there was one feeling around the Dodgers mid-September it was that the team needed a goddamn vacation. The pressure was intense and people like Kemp, Kenley Jansen, Kershaw, and Billingsley were playing hurt.

Everyone is on the mend now and spirits are high. No one is blaming anyone and it's not a toxic clusterfuck like Boston's collapse in 2011. The rotation has clearly upgraded and the bloated payroll should be more than paid for by the TV deal alone. Then you factor in sponsorships (and lots of them), ticket sales, merchandise, etc etc... This team is going to be stupidly weathly so overpays on an annual basis (which I don't think Greinke is being overpaid, Ryu remains to be seen but c'mon it's pennies compared to Crawford) won't hurt the team.

And who knows? Maybe Carl Crawford will do good.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

I'm pretty confident that the Dodgers are about a million times better than the Giants. Unless of course you think that a team can continue to get carried by Marco Scutaro and Angel Pagan as they enter their 40s... Belt seemed to learn how to hit at the end of the season, but then so did Loney 2 years ago. I really believe that the Giants got hot at the perfect time because I doubt this unit will continue their success.

I don't want to make excuses for the Dodger's post-trade failures but (I will anyways). Kemp was hurt, A-Gone was pressing (and he admits such), Hanley was fine, AJ Ellis figuratively fell off a cliff, and it was only Luis Cruz and Ethier that were hitting worth a damn towards the end (and still not great). The Dodgers roster had one of the most insane rollercoaster seasons I've ever seen and they were at least able to finish on a high note -- winning 7 out of 8 in addition to series wins against the Giants. Anyways, if there was one feeling around the Dodgers mid-September it was that the team needed a goddamn vacation. The pressure was intense and people like Kemp, Kenley Jansen, Kershaw, and Billingsley were playing hurt.

Everyone is on the mend now and spirits are high. No one is blaming anyone and it's not a toxic clusterfuck like Boston's collapse in 2011. The rotation has clearly upgraded and the bloated payroll should be more than paid for by the TV deal alone. Then you factor in sponsorships (and lots of them), ticket sales, merchandise, etc etc... This team is going to be stupidly weathly so overpays on an annual basis (which I don't think Greinke is being overpaid, Ryu remains to be seen but c'mon it's pennies compared to Crawford) won't hurt the team.

And who knows? Maybe Carl Crawford will do good.

While I like some of the moves the Dodgers have made (payroll and contracts notwithstanding) I don't think you can put them as the pre-season favorites over the Giants. Simply put, the Giants have won two of the past three World Series, and I'm going to go with them until they prove otherwise.

 

[Villain]

While I like some of the moves the Dodgers have made (payroll and contracts notwithstanding) I don't think you can put them as the pre-season favorites over the Giants. Simply put, the Giants have won two of the past three World Series, and I'm going to go with them until they prove otherwise.

Did you pull that straight from MLB Tonight? John Kruk, are you in there?

 

[Glenbino]

I'm pretty confident that the Dodgers are about a million times better than the Giants. Unless of course you think that a team can continue to get carried by Marco Scutaro and Angel Pagan as they enter their 40s... Belt seemed to learn how to hit at the end of the season, but then so did Loney 2 years ago. I really believe that the Giants got hot at the perfect time because I doubt this unit will continue their success.

I don't want to make excuses for the Dodger's post-trade failures but (I will anyways). Kemp was hurt, A-Gone was pressing (and he admits such), Hanley was fine, AJ Ellis figuratively fell off a cliff, and it was only Luis Cruz and Ethier that were hitting worth a damn towards the end (and still not great). The Dodgers roster had one of the most insane rollercoaster seasons I've ever seen and they were at least able to finish on a high note -- winning 7 out of 8 in addition to series wins against the Giants. Anyways, if there was one feeling around the Dodgers mid-September it was that the team needed a goddamn vacation. The pressure was intense and people like Kemp, Kenley Jansen, Kershaw, and Billingsley were playing hurt.

Everyone is on the mend now and spirits are high. No one is blaming anyone and it's not a toxic clusterfuck like Boston's collapse in 2011. The rotation has clearly upgraded and the bloated payroll should be more than paid for by the TV deal alone. Then you factor in sponsorships (and lots of them), ticket sales, merchandise, etc etc... This team is going to be stupidly weathly so overpays on an annual basis (which I don't think Greinke is being overpaid, Ryu remains to be seen but c'mon it's pennies compared to Crawford) won't hurt the team.

And who knows? Maybe Carl Crawford will do good.

Wall of text probably full of good points but I'm going off track record here.. The team the Giants won the WS with this year was pretty different than the one they won with in 2010 so I have total faith that they're going to make it work.

I trust Bochy and Sabean a hell of a lot more to put a winner on the field than I do Ned Colletti and Mattingly and the only way they will change my mind is on the field.

 

[Villain]

I trust Bochy and Sabean a hell of a lot more to put a winner on the field than I do Ned Colletti and Mattingly and the only way they will change my mind is on the field.

The difference here on the Dodgers' end is Frank McCourt. Now it's Mark Walter financing while Stan Kasten makes the policies. I trust Kasten.

 

[Glenbino]

Replacing Joe Blanton with Zack Greinke is a pretty big improvement.

That's pretty rich from the guy who spent the last for months telling us how Greinke was going back to Milwaukee. Did he even visit the Brewers?

 

[Goober]

That's pretty rich from the guy who spent the last for months telling us how Greinke was going back to Milwaukee. Did he even visit the Brewers?