Yeah its actually one of the first things I look at with "current" guys.
Someone like Dermonti Dawson was hailed as the best center since Webster and a lock for the HOF.
Dawkins IMO wasnt better than Leroy Butler who isnt in , and Rodney Harrison a contemporary who I dont think is going in was a bigger hitter with 2 SB rings. So how Dawkins is a lock I dont know.
QB/HB/T are the only positions that one can safely say "lock" with IMO. All other are really highly contingent on alot of other factors dealing with ex-players who arent in/waiting time etc.
Devin Hester and Adam Vinitieri are the two most intriguing guys. They are clearly the best at there respective duty ever.
But return men need something else on there resume and 2/3 kickers in the HOF were two way players. Adam doesnt have Morton Andersons career...just the best crucial kicks in NFL history.
Stanerud will have company...If Hester puts more distance between him and 2nd place hes going to be hard to keep out.
The backlog of players waiting to get into the HOF are often purposefully not put into the HOF for arbitrary and in some cases petty reasons. When they can only put through a handful of players there will always be a backlog of HOF worthy candidates. I'd be willing to bet dollars to donuts Dawson will one day have his bust in canton, same can be said for Haley. History I think has shown that judging the guys who won't make the HOF, against those great players who we all know should be in the HOF but aren't, is flawed IMO.
I do think it's important to consider these worthy, albeit fringe guys still waiting to get into the HOF, when talking about active HOF worthy guys still playing today. I just don't think it's safe to rule out anybody based on a backlog of other deserving candidates who aren't in yet. HOF locks don't have to be first ballot, they just have to be locks. Like Art Monk, Richard Dent, Darmonti Dawson and Charles Haley weren't first ballot, but all had HOF worthy careers.
The only place judging actives vs. these fringe guys is in anyway helpful is to develop a predictable pattern of induction. When the committee saw Rice, Brown, Carter and Reed retire with Holt, Bruce, Harrison, Owens etc. still playing, they knew they had to push Art Monk through, same could be said for Bullet Bob Hayes. For years there was nobody to force the issue for Monk, until a predictable pattern of retirements were set to occur.
I think that's why we saw Dent go this year. Charles Haley, Chris Doleman, and Cortez Kennedy are all D-linemen waiting to get in, with Michael Strahan and Warren Sapp who will force the issue when they become eligible. I think it's a safe bet to put money down on Charles Haley next year BTW. Strahan I think is first ballot. The predictable pattern I think will go Haley in 2012, Strahan in 2013, Sapp in 2014, Doleman and Kennedy will most likely wait until the next backlog of D-linemen retire. I very well might be surprised to watch Haley slide for the next 10 years, however doubtful that scenario may be. Even if that were to happen I wouldn't doubt Haley didn't do enough in his career to get in. Likewise I think it's a safe bet to say Jason Taylor has already done enough in his career to this point to warrant HOF consideration, IMO.
As for Dawkins, I'm less sold on, and I agree with everything you said about him here.