To be honest, my top two nominated films were District 9 and Up. To be fair, I haven't seen Up in the Air or An Education yet. Up in the Air looks like my kind of movie, but I don't think An Education has what it takes to be the winner.
Up, frankly, was on the most heartfelt movies I've seen in a long time. I enjoyed Basterds and Avatar, and I thought the Hurt Locker was fantastic, but I felt like I've seen those before. Up, while sticking to a lot of Pixar trademarks, really expanded the personal side with the relationship between Elie and Carl.
Who knows, maybe I'm a sucker. Hurt Locker was a good pick to win, definetly better than Avatar