Which 1B Contract would you want on your team.

[Goober]

Five different firstbaseman in the poll. All appear to be very overpaid. Which bullet would you want your team to take? I have listed the players below, along with remaining contract info. In parenthesis is each players fWAR this year, and their ranking on the firstbaseman leaderboard when sorted by WAR.

Mark Teieira 4 years 92.5 million (N/A)
Adrian Gonzalez 6 years 132.1 million (0.9 12th)
Ryan Howard 4 years 105 million (-0.2 27th)
Albert Pujols 9 years 228 million (0.0 23rd)
Prince Fielder 8 years 191 million (0.7 16th)

Discuss.

 

[Slateman]

I guess Prince Fielder because he's the youngest of the bunch and is most likely to produce the most throughout the length of the contract.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I'll take Fielder.

Still under 30, and has progressively increased his walks while lowering his K's. When his bat slows, he can drop in OBA by 50 points and still be a .350 - .370 guy. The power won't go anywhere and he's a gamer who plays hard and never takes a day off or gets nicked up with ticky tack injuries. When he starts to get really fat, he can DH for another five years.

Howard & Pujols are the worst, obviously. Howard because he appears to be completely shot, and Pujols because he's already limping around on bad legs only two years into a contract that pays him over $200M well into his 40's, and his statistical decline began a year before he even signed it.

Actually, the Pujols deal is about a million times worse than Howards.

 

[Sven Draconian]

I'll take Fielder.

Still under 30, and has progressively increased his walks while lowering his K's. When his bat slows, he can drop in OBA by 50 points and still be a .350 - .370 guy. The power won't go anywhere and he's a gamer who plays hard and never takes a day off or gets nicked up with ticky tack injuries. When he starts to get really fat, he can DH for another five years.

Howard & Pujols are the worst, obviously. Howard because he appears to be completely shot, and Pujols because he's already limping around on bad legs only two years into a contract that pays him over $200M well into his 40's, and his statistical decline began a year before he even signed it.

Actually, the Pujols deal is about a million times worse than Howards.

I'd say around 123 million times worse.....

 

[Sven Draconian]

To be serious, Fielder has basically nothing in common with the rest of the list other than being highly paid.

 

[Goober]

To be serious, Fielder has basically nothing in common with the rest of the list other than being highly paid.

Did you not look up the statistics, or is this just homer talk?

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Did you not look up the statistics, or is this just homer talk?

Leads the AL in walks, on base at a .400 clip, OPS is around .900, 42 RBI, 135 OPS+, Fielder is fine. This is basically what his numbers looked like at this point last year when people were worried about his power, and he finished .300/30/100 again.

 

[Goober]

Adrian Gonzalez .329/.386/.503 146 wRC+
Prince Fielder .273/.397/.487 138 wRC+

Clearly one is better then the other?

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Adrian Gonzalez .329/.386/.503 146 wRC+
Prince Fielder .273/.397/.487 138 wRC+

Clearly one is better then the other?

what's the point?

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

what's the point?

That Fielder has something in common with Gonzo?

Good point.

 

[Goober]

what's the point?

That this is wrong...

To be serious, Fielder has basically nothing in common with the rest of the list other than being highly paid.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

left my snarky post for posterity, but added a "thanks"

wasn't following you there.

 

[Sven Draconian]

Adrian Gonzalez .329/.386/.503 146 wRC+
Prince Fielder .273/.397/.487 138 wRC+

Clearly one is better then the other?

Let's start with the basics:

Prince Fielder is 29. He was a regular at 22 and hit 50 HR's with a 158 OPS+ at age 23. He has already posted 4 seasons with an oWAR greater than 5.

Adrian Gonzalez is 31. He didn't have a breakout season until he was 27. He has only posted 2 seasons with an oWAR greater than 5 (with one at 4.7).

In their careers, with Gonzalez with a 90 PA advantage (which is obviously small), Prince has him beat in oWAR (31 to 27), OPS+ (144 to 137), OBP (393 to 371) and RC (928 to 856) and wRC+ (142 to 133).

Gonzalez has a "prototype" career arc - regular at 24, peak 27-29, began decline at 30. His power is gone, he hit 18 HR last year and is on pace for 18 again. His walk rate has collapsed, 42 walks last year, on pace to hit 55 this year.... in his peak he was at 119 and 93. His only saving grace is that he has improved his K rate significantly. Even still, he is a .292 career hitter who's entire slash line is being propped up by career high .348 BABIP (career average is .325). He is developing into a BA driven, defensive 1B. At age 31. That is not a good path. Not to mention the turd he laid last season.

Fielder is an early developer (good). His power has been consistent through his career when you adjust for the ball park and league shift last year. He has always walked a ton and still walks a ton - He is coming off 2 consecutive seasons in which he walked more than he struck out. He is coming off back to back seasons with an oWAR of 5.5.

So no, there is no fucking similarity other than a 50 game sample size.
Adrian Gonzalez is a 31 year old 1B who is relying on line drives and defense for his value. Based on his last 880 plate appearances he is in a clear decline.

Prince Fielder is a 29 year old who takes a ton of walks and hits HR. Based on his last 900 plate appearances he is the same player he has been since he was 23 years old.

 

[Goober]

Let's start with the basics:

Prince Fielder is 29. He was a regular at 22 and hit 50 HR's with a 158 OPS+ at age 23. He has already posted 4 seasons with an oWAR greater than 5.

Adrian Gonzalez is 31. He didn't have a breakout season until he was 27. He has only posted 2 seasons with an oWAR greater than 5 (with one at 4.7).

In their careers, with Gonzalez with a 90 PA advantage (which is obviously small), Prince has him beat in oWAR (31 to 27), OPS+ (144 to 137), OBP (393 to 371) and RC (928 to 856) and wRC+ (142 to 133).

Gonzalez has a "prototype" career arc - regular at 24, peak 27-29, began decline at 30. His power is gone, he hit 18 HR last year and is on pace for 18 again. His walk rate has collapsed, 42 walks last year, on pace to hit 55 this year.... in his peak he was at 119 and 93. His only saving grace is that he has improved his K rate significantly. Even still, he is a .292 career hitter who's entire slash line is being propped up by career high .348 BABIP (career average is .325). He is developing into a BA driven, defensive 1B. At age 31. That is not a good path. Not to mention the turd he laid last season.

Fielder is an early developer (good). His power has been consistent through his career when you adjust for the ball park and league shift last year. He has always walked a ton and still walks a ton - He is coming off 2 consecutive seasons in which he walked more than he struck out. He is coming off back to back seasons with an oWAR of 5.5.

So no, there is no fucking similarity other than a 50 game sample size.
Adrian Gonzalez is a 31 year old 1B who is relying on line drives and defense for his value. Based on his last 880 plate appearances he is in a clear decline.

Prince Fielder is a 29 year old who takes a ton of walks and hits HR. Based on his last 900 plate appearances he is the same player he has been since he was 23 years old.

Why does age matter? They're both under contract through their age 37 season. What advantage is there in having Fielder locked up for two more years? It's two more years where he has a chance to get hurt, or eat himself off of first base. Either way you get the players age 31-37 seasons. With Fielder you also get two more years, and it only costs sixty million. Is there any chance Fielder is worth sixty million over the next two years? No. A donut has a better chance of making it out of the Tiger's clubhouse without being eaten, then Fielder has of earning that money.

I'm surprised at how risk friendly everyone here is. If it's me, I take Teixeira every time. All five of these contracts are under water, give me the one that only has four years left.

You've gone out of your way to discredit Gonzalez, which is weird. As you note, their career PA's are almost identical, but Gonzalez holds a significant advantage in overall value, 8.9 bWAR. He hits less home runs then Fielder does, yes. But that alone doesn't determine his value. A 1B who hits .325 with 20 HRs and solid defense has a lot of value. And please don't bring up the career high BABIP, he changed his swing to focus on hitting line drives (note the career high in LD% too).

"But Gonzalez is smart. Shaikin also wrote that Gonzalez told him that he is “most effective now with a flatter swing that generates more line drives, rather than an upward swing that produces more power.” Going to the Joey Votto school of hitting was a great idea for Gonzalez, who has always shown opposite-field power."

 

[NAHSTE]

Y u no include Joey Votto?

 

[Goober]

Y u no include Joey Votto?

Because Joey Votto is at least earning his current salary. More then any of these five can say.

 

[Sven Draconian]

Why does age matter? They're both under contract through their age 37 season. What advantage is there in having Fielder locked up for two more years? It's two more years where he has a chance to get hurt, or eat himself off of first base. Either way you get the players age 31-37 seasons. With Fielder you also get two more years, and it only costs sixty million. Is there any chance Fielder is worth sixty million over the next two years? No. A donut has a better chance of making it out of the Tiger's clubhouse without being eaten, then Fielder has of earning that money.

Age only matters because Fielder is still in his prime and Gonzalez is almost certainly past his. Fielder might start to decline this year or next year, or he might stay right at that level until he is 36. We don't know. We DO know Gonzalez is a pretty average 1B making huge money.

I'm surprised at how risk friendly everyone here is. If it's me, I take Teixeira every time. All five of these contracts are under water, give me the one that only has four years left.

They're all bad contracts. The question isn't "was the Prince Fielder signing good," the question, to me, is do who is going to produce the most value going forward. I think it's Fielder, by a mile.

You've gone out of your way to discredit Gonzalez, which is weird. As you note, their career PA's are almost identical, but Gonzalez holds a significant advantage in overall value, 8.9 bWAR. He hits less home runs then Fielder does, yes. But that alone doesn't determine his value. A 1B who hits .325 with 20 HRs and solid defense has a lot of value. And please don't bring up the career high BABIP, he changed his swing to focus on hitting line drives (note the career high in LD% too).

Gonzalez has been a better player, because he provided great defensive value. But going forward, he is going to lose defensive value - just like everybody else in their 30s . Fielder will move to DH and keep mashing. Gonzalez plays in the NL and doesn't have the OBP or power.

"But Gonzalez is smart. Shaikin also wrote that Gonzalez told him that he is “most effective now with a flatter swing that generates more line drives, rather than an upward swing that produces more power.” Going to the Joey Votto school of hitting was a great idea for Gonzalez, who has always shown opposite-field power."

If his new approach is so fantastic, why is he in this thread as 12th among 1B? Because line-drive hitting 1B aren't that valuable.

 

[Glenbino]

Either Fielder or Tex....

Tex can at least field the position and has the least amount of time left on his contract. Fielder will bring the most return value and, for a fat guy, plays his ass off.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Votto makes $17M this year, $12M next year, $14M in 2015, then $20M, and finally $22M, before six years of $25M between ages 34-39. They can buy out his age 40 season for $7M or pay him another $20M.

The Reds are basically severely under paying this m'fer from 24-33, and probably hoping he holds up reasonably well until he's 35 or 36. By 2021 or 2022 (feels weird typing those years, as they feel like an eternity away), who knows what $25M will be worth in baseball?

I think any Reds fan is ok with paying a 37 year old Votto $25M, in exchange for him not walking after this season, which would have been the case. The team is really good right now, entering a window where they have a legit shot to win the World Series for the next few years. The thing about Votto, is he OBA's in the .470's. He can drop by 100 points and still be a really, really good player.

This is a little different than Pujols, who was a .430 guy, but hit for more power. Pujols is settling in during his decline as a .330 OBA guy. Plus he's already having trouble running, and is signed into his 40's, with an escalating salary that goes up $1M per all the way to $30M. The Angels are paying him $10M per for ten years after that to not play until he's 52-fucking-years-old.

If you include Votto's deal in this poll, i'm not sure it isn't the most desirable.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Votto makes $26M the next two years combined.

Pujols makes $23M in 2014 alone, $47M over the same two years.