LOL Red Sox

[Villain]

"From Rotoworld, Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said Wednesday that the club has discussed calling up prospect outfielders Yasiel Puig and Joc Pederson.
Very interesting. However, while the Dodgers are struggling to score runs, it's hard to see a great fit for playing time as long as Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Carl Crawford are healthy. Puig, 22, is batting .314/.385/.579 with six homers and a .964 OPS through 32 games this season with Double-A Chattanooga. Pederson has been even better, batting .327/.400/.554 with eight homers, 13 stolen bases and a .954 OPS."

Good for Mattingly, I think you'll see Van Slyke platoon with Ethier for awhile before they call these 2 guys up though.

Click here ---> http://www.virtualsportsnetwork.com/...=1#post2276584

[Villain]

5/17/13:

Andre: 267/.355/.385
BJ: .145/.242/.244

6/15/13:

Andre: .236/.320/.361
BJ: .166/.264/.312



So in a month, all of Ethier's numbers have gone down. All of BJ's numbers have gone up.

 

[MVPete]

Let's get back to talking about Shane Victorino being awful.

[Goober]

Every time this thread is bumped I think it is a Red Sox fan bragging about Victorino, but then I check the numbers and Victorino is still terrible. Brutal contract.

[NAHSTE]

5/17/13:


6/15/13:

Andre: .236/.320/.361
BJ: .166/.264/.312



So in a month, all of Ethier's numbers have gone down. All of BJ's numbers have gone up.

 

Regression to the mean is a hell of a drug.

[Obst]

Every time this thread is bumped I think it is a Red Sox fan bragging about Victorino, but then I check the numbers and Victorino is still terrible. Brutal contract.

Besides getting injured, what about him has been terrible this year? In 40 games he is already at 1.5 WAR. Let's say he got near his 2012 season and put up a 2.9 WAR. His numbers were .255/.321/.388/ with 11 HR, 55 RBI and 11 steals. According to fangraphs those numbers were worth $13.2 million dollars, without mentioning his fielding was way worse than what it is this year. How could a 3 year contract be that bad? He will probably end up being worth that 2.9 WAR number this year, so unless he is absolutely horrendous in the next two years I don't know how it would be a terrible contract.

[Goober]

Besides getting injured, what about him has been terrible this year? In 40 games he is already at 1.5 WAR. Let's say he got near his 2012 season and put up a 2.9 WAR. His numbers were .255/.321/.388/ with 11 HR, 55 RBI and 11 steals. According to fangraphs those numbers were worth $13.2 million dollars, without mentioning his fielding was way worse than what it is this year. How could a 3 year contract be that bad? He will probably end up being worth that 2.9 WAR number this year, so unless he is absolutely horrendous in the next two years I don't know how it would be a terrible contract.

Lets take a look at what makes up that 1.5 WAR figure:
-2.4 runs with his bat
1.5 runs from baserunning
10.8 runs for defense
5.0 run for showing up
-1.6 runs for his position

So virtually his entire value is derived from his defense. Hell he has the fourth highest fielding runs above average adjustment in all of baseball. This figure is based off of UZR. Victorino's UZR/150 this year is 51.9, his previous season best is 22.0 in 2006. So which way do you think that figure is going to move the rest of the season? Will Victorino continue to have the greatest defensive season ever as rated by UZR? Or will he regress to the mean? He's 32, I'd bet on the latter. As he returns to his normal self, those runs saved in RF won't be getting any higher, and could even go lower. So I'm not expecting his total WAR figure to get any higher this year from defense.

Offensively, Victorino's bat has negative value. We knew this last year, it's why the three year deal was criticized. Defensive metrics can fluctuate leading to short term outliers in player value, as noted above. But offensive numbers who have seven plus MLB seasons under their belt are much easier to predict. His offensive numbers took a freefall last year, and they're even worse this year. .307 wOBA. 88 wRC+. These are not good figures. His bat is below average in RF.

Now depending, on what assumptions you make about his defense going forward, Victorino may or may not be worth his 13 million salary this year, but the next two years? As his bat continues to drop in value, and his glove will likely follow suit. I don't expect him to get anywhere close to 8 WAR over the three years, so yes bad contract.

[Villain]

Regression to the mean is a hell of a drug.

So I should expect Ethier's numbers to go up? Do you know what the mean is?

[NAHSTE]

So I should expect Ethier's numbers to go up? Do you know what the mean is?

You can continue to expect BJ Upton's numbers to climb north is all I meant.

[Villain]

7/25/13:

Andre .275/.354/.411 with a .331 wOBA
BJ .177/.266/.300, with a .253 wOBA

Dat mean.