I think McNair is getting in, which will be a travesty, because he's not even as good as McNabb and was largely an average player. But the media (particularly the goofs at ESPN, namely Berman & Tom Jackson) LOVED Steve McNair like no other player of his era.
McNair exceeded 20 TD's three times. His teams had winning records four times in thirteen seasons, which is abysmal when you think about it. He was never even close to being the best QB in the league, and most years he was way outside the top ten. The Titans routinely performed just as well (and most times better) on offense when he was hurt and people like Neil O'Donnell and Billy Volek stepped in. Volek, in particular, would light in up replacing McNair, and McNair would inexplicably get his job back ever time he returned from injury.
I will never, ever understand the facination with Steve McNair.
Racist.
I keed I keed.
But seriously, you're right about McNair. I mean he did have that one co-MVP season, which he shared with Manning who had had 1,000 more passing yards and a petting winning record. Personally I think the voting was rigged.
He never threw for 4000 yards or led the league in anything. Part of that is because of a more legit knock on him - he missed games due to injury almost every season. In 2004 through '06 and again in '09 & '10, he was on pace to go over 4K yds but didn't play a full season. 8 times he finished top 10 in passing yards/game. By comparison, John Elway did it 9 times and 3 of those came at age 35 or older. McNabb will be 35 in November. 5 times McNabb has finished among top 10 in passer rating. Elway's done it 5 times, again a couple of those very late in his career.
You really can't compare Elway to McNabb, the rules have changed to significantly help the passing game in the NFL. While average Joe QB's are now throwing for 4,000 passing yards, McNabb hasn't. You just can't compare players from different eras with players of today, it's never a fair argument.
Let's compare McNabb with his peers. Brady & Manning are both guaranteed HOF'ers, wouldn't you agree? You'll have to prove McNabb belongs in the same conversation as these two guys.
Super Bowl Wins
Brady: 3
Manning: 1
McNabb: 0
This is a big deal in HOF voting. McNabb will have no help here, and I doubt he'll take the 5-10 Vikings to win one anytime soon.
Proof of Tier 1 and HOF worth through statistical achievement
Brady: Set the record for most TDs in a season, lead the nfl in touchdowns twice, passing yards twice, rating once, comp % once. Three 4,000 yard passing seasons.
Manning: Set the record for most TDs in a season(until brady broke it) Lead the NFL in TDs three times, rating three times, passing yardage twice, compltion percentage once. Three strait 100+ QB rating seasons. Eleven 4,000 yard seasons, including six strait 4,000 yard seasons, and another 5 strait 4,000 yard seasons.
McNabb: nothing...Has never lead the NFL in any major stat category.
On top of it all, it's been proven McNabb choked often, including in most of his NFC championship games.
Someone said McNabb's a system QB. I have to debate this. If anything, trying to fit a system hampered him a bit. Over the years, he's really changed his game and forced himself to play more from the pocket. Look at his rushing stats again. His first 5 years he was up around 70-80 rushes almost every year. Ever since he's been down in the 30s most seasons. And its not like he got old, he was 28 starting that 6th year. Still, he made so many great plays off of improvisation.
I agree he's not a system QB, but this is a knock against him as well, can't you see that? If he didn't pull that ball down and run with it, he might have spent a lot less time injured, and a lot more time puting up real numbers. Vick came in and enjoyed the system McNabb left behind, though he has the same problem with being a scrambling QB running into injuries. In fact just about every QB that's stepped in to replace the injured McNabb, had some success.. Except for Detmer and McMahon, who were obviously both hot garbage in or out of any system. The point is, it's never a good thing when your QB missing games because he's running too often. As McNabb ages, he's getting less and less capable of scrambling well, and more and more likely to face injuries because of it. But he's still not able to lean on an accurate arm, because he just doesn't have that.
But lets look at the system shall we.
In 2002, AJ Feely came in to replace an injured McNabb and went 5-1, while McNabb was 7-3 on the year. McNabb went on to have a 53.0 rating in the NFC Championship, and lose the game 10-27 after throwing a late 4th quarter INT to Ronde Barber who took it back 92 yards for the touchdown.
In '05 the defense just wasn't the same, McMahon sucks balls, and the team just couldn't weather the storm when McNabb got hurt.
In '06 Jeff Garcia, who's the definitive west coast system passer, stepped in for an injured McNabb. The Eagles defense still wasn't right, but Garcia proved that the team could win without McNabb. He went 5-1, when McNabb was 5-5 before he got hurt. Garcia had 10 TDs and only 2 INTs, compared to McNabbs 18 to 6.
In '09 when Kolb got to start 2 games, he had 391 yard and 327 yard games, 4 tds, 3 ints and 60.8% & 70.6% completion. Lights out, and I think Kolb isn't that great TBH.
Fast forward to last year and the Eagles did just fine without McNabb. More proof he wasn't HOF caliber, at least he wasn't by the time they sent him packing.
Statistically, I think he's borderline but all those trips to the NFC Championship game put him over the top for me. I can see the case for leaving him out, but to say he's a flat-out no with no chance doesn't make sense to me. [/rant]
For argument's sake, let's say this is his last season and he essentially does nothing. If so, the case to watch to see how McNabb might be treated by HOF committee is Steve McNair. From a statistical and successful standpoint they're very similar.
He went to the NFC Championship 4 years in a row when the NFC really wasn't that strong! The best teams at this time were in the AFC. I mean his competition was garbage for the most part, and he had the best defense in the NFC to boot. He didn't have to be that special to get there. But the most damning evidence was his piss poor NFC Championship performances. He had only 1 good game in the NFC Chmp game. Flat-out, he couldn't win the big game.
For argument's sake, the only chance he has of making the HOF IMO is to win a Super Bowl. He's not going go to Minnesota and lead the NFL in any statistical category.
Unless you win a Super Bowl, you have to prove to be the best, QB in some significant way, typically through statistical achievement, and he's never done that. In fact he's almost always hovering in the top 6-10 range in all statistical categories.