The Milwaukee Brewers were almost certainly never going to re-sign Prince Fielder because they were so unlikely to be the high bidders on a player who seemed all along to be headed to the highest bidder. In that light, signing Aramis Ramirez to a reported three-year deal, even a somewhat overpriced one, is a reasonable alternative. They'll get back a good chunk of the offense they've lost without Fielder while limiting their downside with a short deal. (I didn't say eliminating their downside, though; they now have Ramirez under contract for his age 34-36 seasons, and he's the type of "old man's skills" player who ages poorly.) But if this is their big move of the offseason, is it really enough to make them contenders in 2012 against the World Series champs and a Reds team that should bounce back after an off year?
Ramirez, who will reportedly get approximately $35 million in the deal, is a slow power hitter with a decent idea of the strike zone who has produced lots of contact albeit with few walks; he's been comfortably above-average on offense in seven of the past eight years, producing high averages and slugging at least .510 in those seasons. He's a pull hitter who's vulnerable to good velocity, something that will probably get worse over the next three years but isn't a serious problem yet, while his defense has fallen off a cliff to the point where he should probably trade in his glove.
If the Brewers' intention is to play Ramirez at third base -- and rumors they might sign Carlos Pena, assuming they still have the cash to do so, would appear to confirm that -- then they are punting defense at that position, to the same extent that they are punting offense at shortstop with the recent signing of Alex Gonzalez. Right now, they're looking at below-average defense at all four corners, with minimal offense at first base (for the position), at shortstop and behind the plate, with a center fielder (Nyjer Morgan) who's a little bad luck on balls in play from hurting the team with his bat, as well. You can compete with a number of flawed players on your roster, but even in a weak division you're going to have a hard time contending like that. They'd be better off pushing Ramirez to first base and playing Taylor Green every day at third, which would at least produce a better defensive alignment without a major loss of offense, and would save them some cash to pay Francisco Rodriguez after their giant mistake in offering him arbitration.
If Milwaukee can dump Rodriguez the way the Atlanta Braves did with Rafael Soriano two years ago -- meaning the Brewers would have to pay a third or so of K-Rod's eventual salary -- they'd have some financial flexibility heading into what should be an all-in season, since three of their five starters are potential free agents after 2012. Right now, they're probably two wins worse off in the short term for replacing Fielder with Ramirez, with that gap growing over the life of the latter's contract, to say nothing of what they might lose if Ryan Braun is out for a third of the season due to a reported PED violation. And it's not clear they could do much better than Green or a Mat Gamel/Casey McGehee platoon if they went back out into the market. It's not a great position for a team coming off its first National League Championship Series appearance in 29 years.
Fielder really stands alone right now among potential impact bats on the market; Ramirez was just a poor man's alternative, but the next-best bats on the market now are guys like Michael Cuddyer and Carlos Pena, starters on bad teams who might be best cast as platoon players on good clubs. This strikes me as a very good time for the Reds to get aggressive, if not in free agency then in trades; Yonder Alonso's value has to be rising as the market for bats thins out, and he's superfluous for Cincinnati with Joey Votto at first base.