MLB Random Thoughts - [7/30 - 8/5]

[Warner2BruceTD]

If there is a metric that determines Gregor Blanco is a better option than Hunter Pence, then that metric is broken.

 

[MVPete]

If there is a metric that determines Gregor Blanco is a better option than Hunter Pence, then that metric is broken.

No metric needed. Use the eye test.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Is $18M completely unreasonable for a .500 SLG, .820 OPS, with above average OF defense?

Only one year left, too. Surprised nobody bit.

 

[NAHSTE]

Is $18M completely unreasonable for a .500 SLG, .820 OPS, with above average OF defense?

Only one year left, too. Surprised nobody bit.

WUT

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

WUT

check the stats man, according to a lot of them his defense is very much above average this season

 

[Tailback U]

Thought this was interesting:

FWIW:

http://www.baycityball.com/2012/08/01/on-hunter-pences-power/

On Hunter Pence’s power
BY CHRIS QUICK, ON AUGUST 1ST, 2012

One of the concerns about adding any hitter to AT&T Park is how that player’s power will translate and now that the Giants have traded for Hunter Pence, I think that’s a question that’s on everyone’s mind. So, with that question in mind, let’s look at a few numbers.

First, let’s take a look at some park factors. According to StatCorner, AT&T Park has the following park factors:

PARK FACTORS (LHB / RHB)
K: 104 101 nB: 92 97
gbH: 98 96 ofH: 103 102
1B: 99 100 GB: 106 106
2/3B: 98 96 FB: 96 95
HR: 66 88 LD: 96 96
Runs: 77 91 IF: 86 93

A park factor score of exactly 100 indicates a neutral park. A PF score of greater than 100 indicates a park that is favorable to hitters; below 100 indicates a park that is favorable to pitchers. As expected, AT&T Park is mighty hard on left-handed power. Running down the PF list, the Giants’ homepark largely plays at neutral for right-handed batters. The park suppresses homeruns for righties (88 PF), but not nearly as much as it does for lefties (66 PF). So, that’s the good news for the Giants: righties will see a dip in power – when using HR as our measure – but it’s nothing like lefties have to deal with.

Here’s Pence’s hit chart, years 2009-2012:

I’ve included home runs, doubles, and triples in the hit chart. As you can see, most of Pence’s power is of the pull variety; though, he does have some home runs to right field. Pence’s power is predominately to his pull field and up-the-middle. Data from Baseball-Reference confirms this.

Split PA H 2B 3B HR
Pulled-RHB 632 286 54 1 58
Up Mdle-RHB 1568 513 85 27 57
Opp Fld-RHB 423 143 33 0 16

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/1/2012.

That’s Pence’s 2B, 3B, and HR totals by hit location. Of Pence’s 131 career home runs, 58 of them (44.2%) have been pulled; 57 of them (43.5%) have been up-the-middle; and just 16 of them (12.2%) have been opposite field shots.

So, all things considered, Pence should continue to hit for power at AT&T as long as he’s pulling the ball and using the same general approach that he’s shown over his career thus far. He’s going to lose the ability to hit the ball out of the opposite field, but it was never a huge part of his game to begin with anyways. It’s also worth mentioning that Citizen Bank Park’s PF for HRs for right-handed batters is (101) – essentially a neutral park for righties to hit homers in. Pence is likely to lose a few home runs per year while playing in AT&T, but for the Giants he appears to be a good hitter-type to add into the mix: the right-handed pull hitter with power. Unlike left-handed batters, Pence is less likely to be affected by AT&T Park’s spacious dimensions.

In 20 career games in San Francisco, Pence has hit .329 with five home runs and 10 RBI in 76 at-bats at AT&T Park.

It will take him some time to settle in like it takes everyone, especially at AT&T. But I like the move. The Giants desperately needed a bat and they really didn't give up much since Schierholtz rarely starts and Joseph is the 3rd best catcher in the organization.

 

[NAHSTE]

check the stats man, according to a lot of them his defense is very much above average this season

Not gonna trust half a season of defensive "data" when we don't even know if a year's worth is ever accurate.

He has always been a brutal defender. Anyway, even if you are right and he has been above passable, we're still just talking about LF.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Hunter Pence vs Gregor Blanco is not even a worthy debate, even during a down year for Pence, which would still be a career year for Blanco.

Pence has 17 HR's this season, Blanco might not hit 17 in his entire career.

Pence is a whipping boy on this site, but he's a good player and easily an upgrade for SF.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Not gonna trust half a season of defensive "data" when we don't even know if a year's worth is ever accurate.

He has always been a brutal defender. Anyway, even if you are right and he has been above passable, we're still just talking about LF.

Somebody tweeted that scouts were raving about his improved defense, so I was skeptical and looked it up. The numbers backed it, so I will shoulder shrug and accept it. Eye test + metrics is good enough for me.

Anyway, the overall point here is the guy is hitting well enough to make $18M not look terrible, even with average at worst defense in LF, so that contract isn't nearly as ugly as it was 5 years ago with inflation. Surprised nobody made a play, because you know the Cubs didn't want a ton back and probably would have paid half at minimum.

 

[Rudi]

Miguel Cairo had a bunt hit today :lol:

 

[MVPete]

Somebody tweeted that scouts were raving about his improved defense, so I was skeptical and looked it up. The numbers backed it, so I will shoulder shrug and accept it. Eye test + metrics is good enough for me.

Anyway, the overall point here is the guy is hitting well enough to make $18M not look terrible, even with average at worst defense in LF, so that contract isn't nearly as ugly as it was 5 years ago with inflation. Surprised nobody made a play, because you know the Cubs didn't want a ton back and probably would have paid half at minimum.

I think they would of been fine with the production they were getting out there. Now instead of having that money to play with in the off-season it's locked up in Pence. It feels like a knee jerk reaction by Sabean trying to keep up with the Dodgers. Whatever small boost Pence gives them with the bat will be negated by his defense more than likely. This is just my opinion right now, so we will see how it plays out.

 

[MVPete]

http://www.news-journalonline.com/sports/baseball/daytona-cubs/2012/08/02/cubs-win-4th-straight.html

Umpire's 'Three Blind Mice' upset makes Daytona Cubs intern famous

DAYTONA BEACH - A Daytona Cubs intern who played an audio clip of "Three Blind Mice" and was ejected by the home plate umpire during Wednesday night's game is getting a lot of publicity today.Derek Dye, 21, a rising senior at the University of Illinois, has been deluged with media requests, including ESPN and ABC's Good Morning America, according to Daytona Cubs Media Relations Director Robbie Aaron.
Dye, of Moline, Ill., was taken back by the firestorm of publicity from his actions that resulted in umpire Mario Seneca booting him and shutting down the public-address system in the Cubs' 2-1 victory over the Fort Myers Miracle at Jackie Robinson Ballpark.
"I'm just kind of not believing this right now," Dye told The News-Journal this morning. "It's quite an experience. I guess this will be my legacy at Daytona. The story has gone nationwide."
Dye said he expects to be fined by the Florida State League, but as an unpaid intern he hopes the penalty isn't too stiff.
Aaron said Dye will not be in the press box for tonight's 7:05 "Thirsty Thursday" game against Fort Myers at The Jack, but instead will be selling tickets.
Daytona Cubs general manager Brady Ballard said he thought playing the audio clip was "harmless." The GM also said he has heard it played before at other sporting events without reaction from game officials or umpires.
"There are rules," Ballard said. "It probably violated the rules, but again, there's been discussion on whether it was an overreaction."
On his Facebook page, Seneca posted, "The good news is that I called my league president (Chuck Murphy) afterwards, and he said I did the correct thing. His opinion is pretty much the only one that matters, since he's my boss," MLB.com reported.
A Google news search at noon for "Three Blind Mice Daytona Cubs" returned more than 210 news articles, including one on news-journalonline.com. "You see how quickly things can go viral," Ballard said. "It's gotten a lot of attention."
After a close call at first base was argued by Cubs skipper Brian Harper, Dye, who was at the computer controls for the music clips used during the game, played the brief audio clip. It followed a controversial call by base umpire Ramon Hernandez in the top of the eighth inning. Seneca responded by ejecting Dye and ordering the stadium's public-address sound system shut down for the rest of the game.
Seneca pointed to the press box and bellowed: "You're gone! No more music!" Verbal announcements over the sound system for such things as batters coming to the plate or pitching changes also weren't allowed.
Dye's post on his Facebook page just after the ejection: "Just got ejected from tonight's Daytona Cubs game. Not even kidding. I played '3 Blind Mice' after a questionable call and got tossed. Umpire looked up and said, 'You're gone!' and directed me to the showers. Wow, my first ever ejection."
Ballard said the clip has been removed from the new organ music selections that were purchased this week. He said there are plenty other organ music clips to choose from for tonight's series finale against the Miracle at 7:05.
After Wednesday's game, Dye said many of his friends called and texted him. "After the game, I was cleaning up the dugout and my phone was just chirping nonstop," Dye said.
He joked with Major League Baseball's website about selecting the piece.
"I think it's a pretty popular children's fable," Dye told MLB.com. "He's umpiring the game tomorrow, so I don't think I'll be playing it anytime soon."
Manager Harper was in the process of arguing the call when he heard Seneca shout "You're gone!"
"I thought he kicked me out of the game," Harper said.
Wednesday's incident at The Jack wasn't the first time an umpire had an issue with the individual making the music selections at the ballpark. Wilbur Snapp, an organist, drew national attention in 1985 after an umpire ejected him for playing "Three Blind Mice" after what he considered to be a bad call against the minor league Clearwater Phillies.
Snapp's ejection triggered phone calls from around the country. The ejection was talked about NBC's "Today" show, and Paul Harvey talked about it on his syndicated radio program.
Fans sought Snapp's autograph, and he signed it "Wilbur Snapp, Three Blind Mice organist."
Snapp, who died in 2003 at age 83, lived in St. Petersburg and provided the music at Philadelphia Phillies games throughout spring training and for minor league games throughout the summer.

-- Staff writer Godwin Kelly contributed to this report.

 

[Woy]

http://www.news-journalonline.com/sports/baseball/daytona-cubs/2012/08/02/cubs-win-4th-straight.html

Umpire's 'Three Blind Mice' upset makes Daytona Cubs intern famous

I'm definitely tempted to do this myself during this next homestand.

 

[MvP]

After a close call at first base was argued by Cubs skipper Brian Harper, Dye, who was at the computer controls for the music clips used during the game, played the brief audio clip. It followed a controversial call by base umpire Ramon Hernandez in the top of the eighth inning. Seneca responded by ejecting Dye and ordering the stadium's public-address sound system shut down for the rest of the game.

MONEYBALL

 

[shag773]

Difference between Giants fans and Phillies fans:

Giants fans: good luck to schierholtz I think he will do well in Philly and I wish him the best.

Philly fans: lol @ giants fans cheering for pence I can't wait until he sucks and they realize he is mentally retarded.

No surprise really. Typical asshat Philly fan.

His approach to the plate this year has been mind numbingly bad. He was being asked to do much more, so he may have been pressing. My biggest issue with him in San Fran is in the field. There were times this year where he was just flat out not playing a major league RF. In that big park you guys have plus that wind he might be an adventure out there.

On the plus side he has some pop in his bat, and maybe in that big ballpark he might swing out of his shoes less and put the ball in play. Great guy, was also great with the press and well liked in the clubhouse.

I'm one guy in Philly that hopes he does well, although I understand obst's frustration.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I think they would of been fine with the production they were getting out there. Now instead of having that money to play with in the off-season it's locked up in Pence. It feels like a knee jerk reaction by Sabean trying to keep up with the Dodgers. Whatever small boost Pence gives them with the bat will be negated by his defense more than likely. This is just my opinion right now, so we will see how it plays out.

lol, that series of posts between me & NAHSTE was about Alfonso Soriano.

 

[Golden Taters]

Justin Vargas is AL pitcher of the month. 5-0 1.64ERA in 6 starts. Glad we didn't get rid of the guy.

 

[NAHSTE]

lol, that series of posts between me & NAHSTE was about Alfonso Soriano.

I still say $18 million (for 2013 AND 2014, at that) is very cost prohibitive for a team that needs an upgrade. The home runs are nice, but we are still talking about a low walks, high strikeout 36 year old who can only play one position. That's still a lot of money to pay a 1-tool player.

By comparison, a guy like Josh Willingham, also chained solely to LF, is a better hitter across the board, gets on base much more, is three years younger and only makes $7 million a year. Nick Swisher is putting up a nearly identical wOBA (.387) for $10.25. Corey Hart is putting up a very similar season to Soriano and he is under contract for $19 million total for the next two seasons combined.

So yeah, two more seasons at $18MM still looks a bit absurd for Soriano.

 

[Goober]

At least Soriano is putting up decent defensive numbers this year, I understand that's probably a fluke, but Corey Hart is and always has been a terrible outfielder.

 

[Woy]

With two stolen bases last night, Yadier Molina is now 10 for 11 in stolen base attempts this year. If that isn't a sign of the apocalypse, then it's never coming. :cj2k: