Official 2010 NFL Betting Thread

[Primetime]

I don't care where the Browns are, they're the Browns.

 

[strahanfan92]

I do love that Chiefs line but it just seems so fishy.. I'll probably stay away even though I loved the Chiefs vs. Chargers mon night.

 

[strahanfan92]

Don't give that many points to Eli in a big spot. After watching both games, this Indy team is not the same team as last year. They got torched on the ground by a decent running team in the Texans and just lost their best secondary player in Glass Sanders. The Giants will come in and do their best to control the tempo with the run game. If they can succeed in that, they will win this game. If the turrible Colts D can somehow manage to contain the double headed running attack of the giants, this game will FLY over the total, because if Eli is forced to pass, he will, and will be good at it playing in the dome against a weak secondary. Indy will not run the ball, but that's not their game anyway. They will pass the ball and will do so successfully as usual. The Giants have a safety who played in his first game in a year last week in Kenny Phillips, and a nickel corner who rested an injury last week so he could be healthy for Indy's strong passing attack.

Also, think either Peyton or Eli will embarass the other in a blowout? Nah don't think so. The first and only time the two played was a battle with the Giants losing the game 26-21 on a crappy pass interference call. The Giants are also 8-1 vs. opponents who had a .666 win percentage and beat them in the last meeting. This game has 3 to 4 point game either way written all over it. Colts are also 0-6 after losing straight up to a divisional opponent as well as 0-8 off straight up division loss in September.


A couple of Giants stats that scare me:

1-5 as Monday night dogs (Giants-Colts is Sunday nighter)
0-5 with an over/under greater than 46 (o/u is 48)
Colts are 7-1 as non-conference favs under 10 points


This is what also scares me:

The Giants special team was atrocious and has been all pre season. The fact that they didn't even bring in a punter this week to light a fire up dodge's butt, tells me that they do have confidence in him and expect him to turn it around asap. I look for the Giants to work crazy on special teams coverage especially kickoffs because as you said, giving Peyton a short field is a recipe for disaster. Overall what I'm trying to say is, I have faith in the Giants to turn it around special teams wise and perform a lot better this week.


any constructive criticism on my preview is encouraged, thanks

 

[Archer]

I think it will be a three point game but two notes

The secondary is far from weak. When everybody is healthy [which they are other than Bob] they do a pretty decent job

And you can't forget that the secondary is used to playing without Sanders and doing a good job without him [v the pass]. You still have a pro bowl guy in Bethea back there and a good backup in Melvin Bullitt who has started nearly 30 games in the last two years.

If Jacobs can man up then it will be a shootout for sure

 

[Hasselbeck]

I like the Giants +5 a lot, I think the Colts are in trouble..

 

[Kuzzy Powers]

I thoroughly enjoy that everyone likes the Giants this wknd.. and that even Archer himself thought the spread should be lower. Cant wait to cash in on Payton Manning this Sunday Night.

 

[strahanfan92]

Love it Kuzzy.

 

[Archer]

I thoroughly enjoy that everyone likes the Giants this wknd.. and that even Archer himself thought the spread should be lower. Cant wait to cash in on Payton Manning this Sunday Night.

I think we'll win

5pts just seems like alot after watching our o and d-line last week

 

[strahanfan92]

1:00 3 Team 10 Point Teaser

Chiefs +12.5 (easy vs. Cleveland)
Bengals +11.5
Eagles/Lions o31.5


As much as I want to do Seattle +13 instead of the Eagles/Lions, I wanted to have a Teaser win before 4pm.

 

[Kuzzy Powers]

1:00 3 Team 10 Point Teaser

Chiefs +12.5 (easy vs. Cleveland)
Bengals +11.5
Eagles/Lions o31.5


As much as I want to do Seattle +13 instead of the Eagles/Lions, I wanted to have a Teaser win before 4pm.

This would've been a fucking nice parlay if you didnt tease it.

 

[Kuzzy Powers]

Solid start to the day.. but really fucking cheesed that the Eagles blew an 18 pt lead to ruin their cover and ruin a nice fucking parlay I had going for me. Ah well.. 6-1 none the less..

Bears +7.5
Bengals ML
Bears/Cowboys O41
Packers -12.5
KC Chiefs ML
KC Chiefs +3.5
Eagles -6

5 dollar parlay with the 6 plays that paid over 250 ruined... brutal shit. Eagles D crumbled badly late..

 

[Kuzzy Powers]

4 oclock plays..

Pats -2.5
Broncos -3
Jaguars/Chargers O 45
Redskins ML
Redskins +3.5
Broncos/Seahawks O 41

Clinton Portis U 70.5 rushing yards
Santana Moss O 67.5 receiving yards
Wes Welker O 80.5 receiving yards

 

[Kuzzy Powers]

Also went in on Raiders ML in the live play.. pretty much even money.

And Chargers -12.5 live play.. kind of desperation cause of the Raiders play, lol.. hope I dont regret it.

 

[Kuzzy Powers]

Bears +7.5
Bengals ML
Bears/Cowboys O41
Packers -12.5
KC Chiefs ML
KC Chiefs +3.5
Eagles -6
Pats -2.5
Broncos -3
Jaguars/Chargers O 45
Redskins ML
Redskins +3.5
Broncos/Seahawks O 41
Colts -3.5
Colts/Giants O 48
Saints/Niners O 43
Saints -4

Clinton Portis U 70.5 rushing yards
Santana Moss O 67.5 receiving yards
Wes Welker O 80.5 receiving yards
Raiders ML (LIVE PLAY)
Chargers -12.5 (LIVE PLAY)
Joseph Addai U 84.5 rushing & receiving yards
Dallas Clark O 72.5 receiving yards
Reggie Wayne O 82.5 receiving yards
Eli Manning O 247.5 passing yards
Alex Smith O 220.5 passing yards
Saints ML & Saints/Niners O 43 parlay
Saints ML (LIVE PLAY)

22-7 this weekend.

38-11-1 so far for the season.

 

[Kuzzy Powers]

Going in on Colts -3.5... going hard on it.

Also gonna go light on Colts/Giants O 48

And a few props at decent value..

Joseph Addai U 84.5 rushing & receiving yards
Dallas Clark O 72.5 receiving yards
Reggie Wayne O 82.5 receiving yards
Eli Manning O 247.5 passing yards

 

[strahanfan92]

These are a couple things I've noticed thus far...

-So far through 2 weeks there have been 13 cases of "small totals" which I quanitfy as over/unders set at anything below 40. These 13 games have resulted in a 10-2-1 record for the UNDER. I would attribute this to defenses being more prepared than offenses through the early going in the NFL when camp breaks, as it takes a little longer for offenses to get the timing between their receivers and QB's to get on track, especially those teams dealing with uncertain/new QB situations. Furthermore, the DOGS in these games are 9-3-1 thus far, including a perfect 6-0 in week 2. Anybody else have any opinions/explanations on this?

-Another note: the AFC, in my opinion, is the superior conference top to bottom. There have been 7 games between the two conferences and the AFC has gone 4-2-1 ATS. Does anybody have any historical data between the 2 conferences. Between the 2004-2007 seasons, I have it scored 104-73 (58.7%) in favor of AFC, but don't have the last couple years of data on this. There are 8 inter-conference games set for week 3.

Posted from another forum.

 

[strahanfan92]

What do you guys think about tonight? Saints are the big public pick understandably, I kinda like the 49ers.

 

[Hitman]

I have the Saints -5 and o44.. I think this'll be a blowout much like the Colts vs Giants last night.

 

[Archer]

I'm not touching it but it seems like a trap game to me

49ers +5

 

[Kuzzy Powers]

I got the Saints -4 and O 43. I bought the hook from -4.5 late last night, now I see the line is 5, so im pretty happy abt that. I think the Saints win by a TD in a pretty high powered game.

The over has to be the higher confidence play tho.. MNF factor and a very short total for a Saints game. Looking for that old MNF over trend to show its head again.