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Week 8 Random NFL Musings, and why NFL RB's are all the same

Warner2BruceTD

2011 Poster Of The Year
I watched an odd assortment of games yesterday. Here is what I saw...

-What was Jacksonville doing in the first half? Maurice Jones Drew didnt have a single carry until mid way through the second quarter (and he promptly took that carry about 80 yards to the house). Maybe they saw what NE did to TEN through the air, but even so, you are who you are. The Jags are one of the last teams that should be spreading the field and coming out gunning.

-GUS JOHNSON, with this call on a David Garrard scramble: "Garrard...makes CHICKEN SALAD...Garrard! First Down!"

-MIA had no business losing last week. MIA had zero business winning this week. None. Zip. Did absolutely nothing offensively. Chad Henne looked awful. Wildcat was ineffective. Two KR TD's and a defensive score rescued the offense from an embarrassing effort.

-The MIA/NYJ game featured two coaches who have no clue when to use the 2-pt conversion. Case in point--up 11, Tony Sparano goes for 2. Why? 12 makes it a three score game, there is no difference between 12 and 13 late in the game, they still need three scores to beat you. Take the 1 point. The Dolphins failed to convert, and it remained a two score game. Inexplicably stupid. This game featured four or five 2-point attempts, all because the teams failed earlier and then had to "make up" the points.

-I was saying to myself, "W2BTD, why does Jamarcus Russell still start?". Then I looked at the OAK QB depth chart. There is no reason to bench Russell, let him take his lumps, and hopefully progress.

-Steve Slaton getting benched after 1 carry (his 8th lost fumble), and the subsequent big game by Ryan Moats, leads me to the following rant i've been meaning to go on for a while now: 80% of the starting RB's in this league could be replaced by the backup with very little or no difference in performance. NFL RB's are "plug and play", for the most part.

*Pierre Thomas goes down earlier this year, Mike Bell steps right in and gives the Saints the same production. Both guys are equally mediocre, exploiting the same gaping holes and defenses scared to death of Drew Brees.

*Rashard Mendenhall steps right in for Pittsburgh, after being benched for not knowing the playbook no less, and goes apeshit.

*We all know how Denver has "plug and played" a dozen or so guys over the last decade.

*Jets, with Thomas Jones, Leon Washington, and Shonn Greene.

*NYG last year, with two 1,000 yard rushers, and now Ahmad Bradshaw. BTW, how's Derrick Ward doing now that he's not running behind that awesome line? Any competent NFL back would have saw the same success on that Giants team.

My point, is that success in the running game has far less to do with the RB that it does the offensive line and what the defense dicatates. There are a few elite RB's--Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, MJD, a couple of others. Everyone else is essentailly the same (although different guys do different things well), and success/failure is pretty much out of their hands. Plug and play.

-And speaking of NFL RB's, Steven Jackson is the best RB in the league. Better than Peterson, and no one else is even close. What this guy does on a week to week basis, vs. teams that completely key in on him, is nothing short of amazing. He never goes down on first contact, plays hard until the gun in all of these Rams blowouts, and is on pace for a 1500 yard year on a brutal team that has won 6 games in 3 seasons.

Think about this--Since 2006, Jackson leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage per game, paying for the Rams. He's a great pass catcher, his backups (Kenneth Darby & Samkon Gado) never touch the ball so he plays every single down, and he never fumbles.

Peterson, as great of a breakaway threat as he is, is not a great pass catcher, has an elite backup to spell him (Chester Taylor), and fumbles on an almost weekly basis.

There is no debate-Steven Jackson is the best RB in football--and nobody watches him play.
 
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Agree with Jackson being #1 .... I actually felt sorry for the guy when he ran for 140 on us and still lost by 38points

12 and 13 are not three score leads though
 
12 and 13 are not three score leads though

In comparison to 11, they are.

11 you need a TD + FG.

12 and 13, you need a TD + FG + FG.

There is a huge difference between 11 and 12. There is virtually no difference between 12 and 13. You don't go for two up 11. It cant help you, and can only hurt you.
 
Spot on about Steven Jackson.....purple jesus is purple jesus, but his flashiness and brutality while running is what gets him on Sportscenter, thus common folk crowning him as the best.
 
Interesting take on Steven Jackson. I was a huge proponent of the guy 2-3 years ago, but recently I guess I was letting his fantasy value cloud my judgment on him. You do make a very compelling argument in his favor.

I haven't watched him all year but I knew he was having a great season yardage-wise, very commendable on such a garbage team. Has he scored a TD yet?
 
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And another thing....I guess Matt Stover is the new old man K who bounces around the league when guys get hurt, and people wonder why nobody signs them for good. He looked pretty good yesterday, on a day Manning couldnt get in the end zone.

Eddie Murray, John Carney, etc...these guys extend their careers a decade doing this.
 
I agree with a lot of what you said, however, I do disagree about Derrick Ward. Ward is still carrying for 4.0 YPC. The problem is that Derrick gets sporadic playing time and only has 45 carries this season. Of course, that's not to say that Derrick would greatly improve his production with more carries. I just don't think he has been as bad as some people think.
 
Disagree on your plug-and-play examples. IMO, Pierre Thomas is much better than Mike Bell. Slaton had a great year last year...Moats had a good game against a sub-par defense. No comparison. Mendenhall was a 1st round pick IIRC, so its not like the Steelers got someone off the street to take over for Willie Parker. Leon Washington is a nice player, but he's not the same RB as Thomas Jones. They are both effective, but Washington isn't going to carry the ball 25 times a game between the tackles. Chester Taylor is no Adrian Peterson. Samkon Gado is no Stephen Jackson.
 
Saw the Rams play a couple weeks ago.

You're spot on about Jackson.

Probably doesn't help his case that he's the only threat on that team. Constantly facing a stacked box and still racks up the yards.

We screwed up passing on him.
 
I agree with a lot of what you said, however, I do disagree about Derrick Ward. Ward is still carrying for 4.0 YPC. The problem is that Derrick gets sporadic playing time and only has 45 carries this season. Of course, that's not to say that Derrick would greatly improve his production with more carries. I just don't think he has been as bad as some people think.

The idea behind bringing up Ward, is that, IMO, situation dictates production moreso than the RB in alot of these cases. I'm not really ripping Ward, although I kinda am I guess.

To me, you could have had 20 or 30 guys do what Ward did with the Giants. Now he's buried on the bench of a bad team, and cant even get a carry.

Is Mike Bell as talented as Pierre Thomas? I don't know. What I do know, is you get similar production when he plays.

I'd say you have less than 5 RB's around the league where you would see significant dropoff by plugging someone else in. Peterson, Jackson, MJD, who else?
 
The idea behind bringing up Ward, is that, IMO, situation dictates production moreso than the RB in alot of these cases. I'm not really ripping Ward, although I kinda am I guess.

To me, you could have had 20 or 30 guys do what Ward did with the Giants. Now he's buried on the bench of a bad team, and cant even get a carry.

Is Mike Bell as talented as Pierre Thomas? I don't know. What I do know, is you get similar production when he plays.

I'd say you have less than 5 RB's around the league where you would see significant dropoff by plugging someone else in. Peterson, Jackson, MJD, who else?
Gore?

Maybe Forte in Chicago. Not really, though.
 
Gore?

Maybe Forte in Chicago. Not really, though.

Yeah, I was thinking about Gore.

Forte is averaging about 3 yards per carry...he's a great example of what i'm taking about. Would the Bears production from the running game signifiacntly change with (the other) Adrian Peterson or Garrett Wolfe or both getting the bulk of the carries?
 
-Steve Slaton getting benched after 1 carry (his 8th lost fumble), and the subsequent big game by Ryan Moats, leads me to the following rant i've been meaning to go on for a while now: 80% of the starting RB's in this league could be replaced by the backup with very little or no difference in performance. NFL RB's are "plug and play", for the most part.

Anyone can be "plugged and played" against Buffalo. Good RBs can make a difference even against the hardest match ups. Most RBs can look good against weak match ups.
 
Is Mike Bell as talented as Pierre Thomas? I don't know. What I do know, is you get similar production when he plays.

???

Mike Bell has been on the Saints for 2 seasons. In those 2 seasons, he has 2 receptions. Thats 1 reception per season. Mike Bell also has 1 100-yard rushing game and a rushing average of 4.5 YPC with 3 TDs.

Pierre Thomas has been on the Saints for 3 seasons. He has 3 100-yard games, a 5.0 YPC, 17 TDs, and 54 receptions.
 
Anyone can be "plugged and played" against Buffalo. Good RBs can make a difference even against the hardest match ups. Most RBs can look good against weak match ups.

I agree with all of this.

The crux of my argument is that the league lacks a large number of "Good RB's."

To me, a vast majority of them are essentially the same. Different skill sets, but at the end of the day, you'd get similar production, because production is dictated by situation unless you are elite.
 
I agree with all of this.

The crux of my argument is that the league lacks a large number of "Good RB's."

To me, a vast majority of them are essentially the same. Different skill sets, but at the end of the day, you'd get similar production, because production is dictated by situation unless you are elite.

Kind of a roundabout way of looking at things...yes, elite RBs are elite and non-elite RBs are not elite. If all the RBs were elite, then they cease to be elite, no?

ber0-007.jpg
 
???

Mike Bell has been on the Saints for 2 seasons. In those 2 seasons, he has 2 receptions. Thats 1 reception per season. Mike Bell also has 1 100-yard rushing game and a rushing average of 4.5 YPC with 3 TDs.

Pierre Thomas has been on the Saints for 3 seasons. He has 3 100-yard games, a 5.0 YPC, 17 TDs, and 54 receptions.

Bell barely played last year.

This year, with significant playing time, he's averaging 4.8 ypc, and well over 5.0 when he starts. He had a 143 yard game Week 1.

I'm willing to bet a bunch of other guys around the league would have similar numbers in his situation.

I'm not trying to tell you Bell is a better player than Thomas, what i'm trying to point out, is you get very little drop in production when he plays.
 
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Kind of a roundabout way of looking at things...yes, elite RBs are elite and non-elite RBs are not elite. If all the RBs were elite, then they cease to be elite, no?

Classic senser semantics debate.

You know what i'm getting at. I see very little difference between the majority of the starters and backups in the league. Guys stepping in and producing at similar levels bear this out, IMO.

I'm not talking about Peterson's and Jackson's. I'm talking about Derrick Wards and Pierre Thomas's and Ryan Grant's and Matt Forte's and Willie Parker's and Darren McFadden's....
 
I'm not trying to tell you Bell is a better player than Thomas, what i'm trying to point out, is you get very little drop in production when he plays.

Except for the drop in rushing, receiving, scoring, and efficiency...Bell and Thomas are equals.
 
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