Bad Baseball Statements

[FirstTimer]

From the chatbox (read from bottom up):

Larry?

[FedEx227]

Wasn't that Larry/Chipper vs. Mets shit old in like 1999?

[NAHSTE]

Maybe he was talking about Larry Bigbie? In which case, I agree. He will probably have a hard time getting into the HOF on his first ballot.

[MVPete]

Diaz is 5-for-9 vs. Sabathia. RT@TomahawkTalker: @ajcbraves Is Heyward/Diaz an official platoon now?

[Goober]

[20:19] stevsta: and ethier will never be as worse and andrew jones

[Goober]

[03:24 PM] Obst: [the phillies will] Most likely take a big run at Hamilton

[Warner2BruceTD]

Trumbo's ceiling is higher than Adam .220 Dunn. Trumbo won't be a BA sive, plus he's just in his second year so he has upside.

From another board.

[Goober]

From another board.

lol.
Mark Trumbo's career so far, .265/.309/.501, with 58 home runs, 4.9 WAR.
Adam Dunn at the same age, .245/.380/.513, with 198 home runs, 18.4 WAR.

[Warner2BruceTD]

lol.
Mark Trumbo's career so far, .265/.309/.501, with 58 home runs, 4.9 WAR.
Adam Dunn at the same age, .245/.380/.513, with 198 home runs, 18.4 WAR.

My response was similar, yet longer winded, than yours:

This post is really stupid.

Trumbo is 26. By age 26, Dunn had 200 HR's already (actually, 198).

Where is the evidence for this supposed great Trumbo upside? Dunn spent a decade flirting with a .400 OBA every season, Trumbo struggles to climb over .300. Dunn is on his way to his 6th 40+ HR season, Trumbo will probably be lucky if he gets to one.

Dunn's ceiling was .260/.390/.550/.940, 40 HR, 100 RBI, 100 BB, 100 R. He did that for like six consecutive seasons, and he did it at the same age Trumbo is right now. And you are saying Trumbo's ceiling is higher than that? Do you really think Trumbo can exceed those Dunn peaks? And do it well into his 30's?! Seriously?

Basically, you are saying Trumbo is potentially a hall of famer or all time great if his ceiling is higher than Adam Dunn. Because he'd have to be putting up 1.000 OPS's and 45 HR's and 120 RBI and .400 OBA, and he'd have to do it for nearly a decade straight. Into his mid 30's. LOL.

Awful, awful post.

Here is what the mouth breather replied back:

Trumbo has a 32 percent hit rate this year, 30 is average. His contact rate is 74 percent, not great, but what is helping him most is 25 percent of his flyballs turn into homers.

But he is also only in his second year of seeing major league pitching.

There's nothing to the Adam Dunn comparison except both hit for power.

Last year Trumbo's expected batting average was 287, 30 points higher than his actual 254.

This year he is hitting 333 but his expected batting average is 284.

My guess is next year he'll hit 280 and have a slight decline in home runs. Probably end up around 30 or so.

Adam Dunn is one year off from one of the worst years in recorded history.

Adam Dunn has rebounded, but the guy cannot make contact to save his life. HE is a three outcomes hitter, and contrary to what moneyball will have you believe that is not the greatest thing ever created, because baseball has changed. Things like sacrifices and being able to put the ball in play to advance runners actually matters now because homers are down all across the league.

Dunn is a good player but I'd rather have a Trumbo who can make contact while also approaching Dunn's power.

Dunn also had those power seasons in the midst of all of baseball taking every drug known to man.

You bring a real lowest common denominator analysis to the ballgame w2btd

I don't even know what a lot of that means.

I posted corresponding BABIP/BA/OPS charts to point out that Trumbo is a guy who is already 26 (yet this goof still considers him a 'young prospect') who basically had two good months before reverting back to what he is. This:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kingmda01.shtml

Seriously, it's as if that guy was reborn 40 years later. It's uncanny. Same brutal glove a multiple positions, same inability to run, same high K low BB all HR offense.

[Goober]

The second post is complete giberish. He seems to be comparing 26 year old Mark Trumbo in his prime to old washed up Adam Dunn. I don't know what expected average is. It doesn't seem to correlate with babip. But Trumbo is hitting .287, not .333.

[Warner2BruceTD]

The second post is complete giberish. He seems to be comparing 26 year old Mark Trumbo in his prime to old washed up Adam Dunn. I don't know what expected average is. It doesn't seem to correlate with babip. But Trumbo is hitting .287, not .333.

lol. you keep answering the same way I did:

I'm going to give you a chance to worm out of this. Answer carefully.

Are you saying that Trumbo has a higher ceiling right now than Dunn has right now, or a higher ceiling overall?

If you are saying Trumbo has a higher ceiling overall, you are mental and i'm not going to waste my time.

If you are saying that a 26 year old Trumbo has a higher ceiling in 2012 and moving forward than a 32 year old Dunn who is past his prime and on the downside of his career, then fine. Not sure why that means anything, but ok.

Dunn's career arc is actually a good template for Trumbo. Trumbo is the exact kind of player that usually declines early. The problem with Trumbo, is he is peaking late. He's probably going to have a short career, and when he does decline he will be far less useful than a guy like Dunn, and unlike Dunn will probably fade from the league, because his baseline OBA is so low, that when it drops he wont be able to crack a MLB lineup.

The guy moved on and didn't respond.

[Warner2BruceTD]

He's back!

Trumbo is going to get hits instead of taking those walks because he has a 78 and 74 percent contact rate this year, while not amazing, it's fine. and its not expected for him to never strikeout, because he's a power guy.

Adam Dunn has a 60percent contact rate in general for his career. He has to take those walks otherwise he would be worthless. Trumbo will just get singles.

How many times did Dunn score 100 runs? For all of those walks there are only 4 years when he had it or was close to it. Otherwise the numbers are low 80s high 70s.

Yes, he needs people to drive him in so thats not necessarily on him, but how did those walks ultimately help his team if he didn't score? Because the walks didnt drive in anyone either.

So walks are good but lets not get all high and mighty like they are the end all be all for a player. Each player is different, and a 285 35 homer Trumbo is a guy you'd be insane to turn away.

[NAHSTE]

Wait, hol' up ... Trumbo has higher upside than Adam Dunn because he scores more runs?

[Warner2BruceTD]

trolling those Mark Trumbo dorks on the other board:

UPDATE!

Top 27 year old "prospect" (lol @ hardcore hogan) Mark Trumbo 5 for his last 38 with 18 K's and 0 HR's (actually, ZERO extra base hits, period).

This brings his slash line down to a pretty mediocre CI/DH .273/.326/.510, creeping ever so closely to his shitty .254/.291/.477 from last season.

K rate is now waaaaay up from last season, walk rate dropping like a stone, and although the HR total is up, his EBH totals are way down.

Predictable regression to career rates? Unsustainable early season BABIP? Who knows.

See you in in about a month with the final totals, HATH.

I apologize, my stats didn't include today's game.

Trumbo went 0-3 with 2 more K's.

So make that 5-41, with 20 K's and ZERO extra base hits in his last 11 games.

.271/.324/.506

Getting closer!

[NAHSTE]