The odds you find a second round draft pick who turns your franchise around is even less, though.
Smith doesn't have to turn the franchise around -- they are already a pretty solid, underrated bunch. If Bowe leaves they will have work to do, but they can easily go 10-6 with that roster.
Everyone gets caught up in franchise changing players and draft pick value, but at the end of the day less than 1% of players drafted are going to turn around a franchise.