ESPN has a new tiered QB rating system

[BigHouseUSA]

At least they haven't beat this to death on its first day.

 

[Bear Pand]

It's on now.

according to Dilfer this was his idea entirely

 

[Bear Pand]

I'd like to see that list.

Top 10 last year:



Ben Roethlisberger - 7.58
Tom Brady - 7.52
Philip Rivers - 7.5
Michael Vick - 7.31
Aaron Rodgers - 7.1
Josh Freeman - 6.65
Matt Schaub - 6.57
Kyle Orton - 6.43
Joe Flacco - 6.38
Matt Cassel - 6.15

i believe

 

[Bear Pand]

top 10 list by espn's rating for 2010

brady 76
p manning 69.5
ryan 68.6
rodgers 67.9 (86 in playoffs)
vick 66.6
brees 65.9
e manning 64.3
freeman 63.5
rivers 63.2
ben 59.8

top 5 since 2008

manning 77.2
brady 69.5
brees 68.3
rivers 68.2
rodgers 67.3

 

[Rayman]

Where's the link to those numbers Pandy? Can't locate it.

 

[DomePatrol]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6834507/nfl-peyton-manning-top-two-qbr-seasons
This is over the last three years I think

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6834591/nfl-tom-brady-led-nfl-qbr-2010-season
and this is the top 10 of last year

 

[dell71]

I keep reading articles on this and my headache keeps getting worse. It reeks of subjectivity and "top secret" computations. In theory it sounds great. I'm just suspicious of a stat it takes a whole department of people armed with an arsenal of technology 12 hours after a game to tell me how good some guy played. Their numbers might be totally legit. However, its presented to us like "We watched all the games and you didn't so take our word for it. And no we're not really going to tell you how we did it."
TXT8026/T05_0 UP.Browser/6.2.3.2 (GUI) MMP/2.0

 

[FirstTimer]

Sabremetrics for QB's yeah!

 

[FirstTimer]

I'd like to see that list.

I'll put it together tonight since I'll be bored.

:lulz:

 

[FirstTimer]

Here it is based on the formula Senser gave us:

Roethlisberger: 7.6
Rivers: 7.5
Brady: 7.5
Vick: 7.3
Rodgers: 7.0
Freeman: 6.6
Schaub: 6.5
Sanchez: 6.5
Orton: 6.4
Flacco: 6.3
Cassel: 6.1
Tebow: 6.1
Cutler: 5.7
Ryan: 5.7
P. Manning: 5.6
McNabb: 5.5
Brees: 5.3
E. Manning: 5.1
Palmer: 5.0
Henne: 4.8
Bradford: 4.6

 

[Aso]

Here it is based on the formula Senser gave us:

Roethlisberger: 7.6
Rivers: 7.5
Brady: 7.5
Vick: 7.3
Rodgers: 7.0
Freeman: 6.6
Schaub: 6.5
Sanchez: 6.5
Orton: 6.4
Flacco: 6.3
Cassel: 6.1
Tebow: 6.1
Cutler: 5.7
Ryan: 5.7
P. Manning: 5.6
McNabb: 5.5
Brees: 5.3
E. Manning: 5.1
Palmer: 5.0
Henne: 4.8
Bradford: 4.6

That formula is no good

 

[Bear Pand]

I keep reading articles on this and my headache keeps getting worse. It reeks of subjectivity and "top secret" computations. In theory it sounds great. I'm just suspicious of a stat it takes a whole department of people armed with an arsenal of technology 12 hours after a game to tell me how good some guy played. Their numbers might be totally legit. However, its presented to us like "We watched all the games and you didn't so take our word for it. And no we're not really going to tell you how we did it."
TXT8026/T05_0 UP.Browser/6.2.3.2 (GUI) MMP/2.0

Eh, I disagree. I don't get the we watched the games and you didn't feel, more of a we ran a bunch of numbers through a computer and here's what it said feel. I don't think it's really that subjective, based on what I've read and what they said on the show. It's def complicated though and not necessarily correct.

My main issue is ESPN is completely retarded about it. They treat it like a gimmick. When I go on ESPN I can easily get a list of QBs sorted by the old QB rating, TDs, anything but their rating is nowhere to be found. Not even on a players individual stat page. You have to go out of your way to find the numbers. This after they claimed how revolutionary and important the stat is.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Eh, I disagree. I don't get the we watched the games and you didn't feel, more of a we ran a bunch of numbers through a computer and here's what it said feel. I don't think it's really that subjective, based on what I've read and what they said on the show. It's def complicated though and not necessarily correct.

My main issue is ESPN is completely retarded about it. They treat it like a gimmick. When I go on ESPN I can easily get a list of QBs sorted by the old QB rating, TDs, anything but their rating is nowhere to be found. Not even on a players individual stat page. You have to go out of your way to find the numbers. This after they claimed how revolutionary and important the stat is.

I'm with you, i'm going to give it a chance.

I like how they are taking everything that happens on the field, and I like how they are weighting all of it as well. It's very comprehensive. However, I still would like to see the formulas. If the formulas are shit, or too gimmicky, or weighted in such a way that it's silly, then we can toss this in the trash. But it clearly has potential.

At worst it will be another guide to look at and argue about, just like some of the goofier MLB sabermetric stuff and the new NBA metrics. But some of those new stats have changed the game, so why not give this a shot? People are being closed minded because it didn't spit out results that matched the same old accepted hierarchy. Lame.

 

[Bear Pand]

I went through and did a weighted average for every QB 2008-2010. Took off any QB who I had less than 500 plays or less than 2 seasons for:

Of course it'd be easier if ESPN wasn't so shit

More info on the methodology they used: http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6833215/explaining-statistics-total-quarterback-rating

hopefully then actually start using it

1 Peyton Manning 76.72
2 Tom Brady 69.25
3 Drew Brees 68.22
4 Philip Rivers 67.86
5 Aaron Rodgers 67.38
6 Matt Ryan 66.54
7 Matt Schaub 65.69
8 Kurt Warner 65.56
9 Eli Manning 63.87
10 Tony Romo 58.08

11 Ben Roethlisberger 57.95
12 Jay Cutler 55.94
13 David Garrard 52.4
14 Joe Flacco 51.05
15 Kerry Collins 50.65
16 Donovan McNabb 50.04
17 Shaun Hill 49.96
18 Jason Campbell 49.88
19 Carson Palmer 49.69
20 Josh Freeman 49.42

21 Jake Delhomme 49.41
22 Kyle Orton 48.57
23 Matt Cassel 47.39
24 Chad Henne 45.97
25 Brett Favre 45.41
26 Trent Edwards 41.35
27 Alex Smith 41.15
28 Ryan Fitzpatrick 40.73
29 Mark Sanchez 40.25
30 Matt Hasselbeck 33.62

31 Derek Anderson 32.84
32 Marc Bulger 32.61
33 JaMarcus Russell 24.43

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Why is the formula under such lock and key? I understand it's highly complex and some high level math is obviously involved, but what's the big deal?

 

[Senser81]

That formula is no good

But it doesn't require Good Will Hunting to calculate it.

 

[FirstTimer]

But it doesn't require Good Will Hunting to calculate it.

What the fuck you trying to imply?

 

[Senser81]

What the fuck you trying to imply?

 

[dell71]

I am giving it a chance that's why I keeep reading articles on it. Their withholding of the actual formula is frustrating. When I say it feels subjective it seems there are a lot of decisions to be made about a bunch of plays. For instance how exactly are bad throws determined? Sounds easy but what about throws where the qb puts it where his wr can get it or it goes out of bounds? When the wr doen't get it is there really a numeric value for this or is it up to Joe Nerd to decide whether or not he thought it was a good throw? The whole clutch thing - I get the theory but would like to see more info? Where do the values they assign to these plays come from? On top of this going backwards and applying it seems impossible because 1) we don't have all the plays of all the games and 2) even if we did I'd imagine they'd have to input all new info since what the average or replacement qb is capable of today is far different than in previous eras. Bottom line is I want the chef to share the recipe.
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[Senser81]

The clutch thing is also a sticking point for me. I remember FootballOutsiders had a "clutch" definition of passes thrown in the 4th quarter while trailing (or something like that). First, it penalized QBs who did well in the first 3 quarters and thus had the lead. Second, teams will usually go prevent in the 4th quarter and/or play second-stringers just to finish up a blowout. Not surprisingly, the most clutch QB was Jon Kitna, who in reality is one of the least-clutch players I have ever seen.