Hall of Fame Probablility

[A Tasty Burgerr]

Pretty interesting statistic from basketball-reference.com, here's the list for active players:

Rank	Player	          HoF Prob
1.	Shaquille O'Neal  1.0000
2.	Tim Duncan	  1.0000
3.	Kobe Bryant	  1.0000
4.	Kevin Garnett	  1.0000
5.	Allen Iverson	  1.0000
6.	LeBron James	  1.0000
7.	Dirk Nowitzki	  0.9985
8.	Steve Nash	  0.9972
9.	Jason Kidd	  0.9842
10.	Tracy McGrady	  0.9782
11.	Paul Pierce	  0.9417
12.	Ray Allen	  0.9085
13.	Vince Carter	  0.8975
14.	Grant Hill	  0.7951
15.	Tony Parker	  0.5851
16.	Gilbert Arenas	  0.5431
17.	Carmelo Anthony	  0.2681
18.	Chauncey Billups  0.2457
19.	Amare Stoudemire  0.2124
20.	Stephon Marbury	  0.1981
21.	Elton Brand	  0.1872
22.	Dwight Howard	  0.1838
23.	Chris Bosh	  0.1602
24.	Shawn Marion	  0.1523
25.	Yao Ming	  0.0894
26.	Baron Davis	  0.0821
27.	Antawn Jamison	  0.0593
28.	Manu Ginobili	  0.0562
29.	Richard Hamilton  0.0550
30.	Jermaine O'Neal	  0.0532
31.	Pau Gasol	  0.0373
32.	Carlos Boozer	  0.0334
33.	Rasheed Wallace	  0.0236
34.	Michael Redd	  0.0217
35.	Peja Stojakovic	  0.0204
36.	Joe Johnson	  0.0199
37.	Mike Bibby	  0.0192
38.	Jerry Stackhouse  0.0182
39.	Michael Finley	  0.0175
40.	Andre Miller	  0.0161
41.	Caron Butler	  0.0138
42.	Jason Richardson  0.0116
43.	Jason Terry	  0.0075
44.	Dikembe Mutombo	  0.0065
45.	Lamar Odom	  0.0065
46.	Richard Jefferson 0.0061
47.	Ron Artest	  0.0061
48.	Andre Iguodala	  0.0059
49.	Zach Randolph	  0.0049
50.	Mo Williams	  0.0049

Any surprises/gripes? Here's how they determine it.

 

[Saluki]

Nice find, very intresting

 

[FedEx227]

Pretty cool, I have to say.

I'm actually kind of surprised at how low some of the players are, but when I think about it, it makes sense.

Yeah, because you have to think, what happens tomorrow if Pau Gasol tears his ACL and never plays again. You obviously wouldn't put him in the HOF based off what he's done in the NBA thus far.

 

[A Tasty Burgerr]

My one surprise is how low Mutombo is considering his all time rankings in blocks and rebounds,

 

[Kuzzy Powers]

You'd think Yao is going in just for his impact on the international scene alone.

 

[Lanteri]

My one surprise is how low Mutombo is considering his all time rankings in blocks and rebounds,

Longevity =/= HOF

 

[Maestro]

I dont see Wade on the list.

 

[FedEx227]

Is Penny in or soon to be eligible?

That may get tested with Grant Hill as well.

 

[A Tasty Burgerr]

I dont see Wade on the list.

It may not include this season, and even so he hasn't really done too much at this point in his career. He would not be a hall of famer if he retired tomorrow.

I would think that even if one of the guys that are a lock with few years in the league had a career ender they would still get in. Anyone know of anyone in the NBA hall that had a few amazing years that was cut short for some reason?

hopefully Grant Hill

I can't think of any examples of a career being cut short besides Magic, but he had put in more than enough to get in.

 

[Maestro]

I think he has a better resume than Mo Williams and a few others on that list. I just think he should be on it.

 

[A Tasty Burgerr]

Is Penny in or soon to be eligible?

i think Penny may have had a few too many Damon Stoudamire-esque mediocre seasons at the end of his career that ruined chances. The site lists him at a 6% chance right now. Its a shame.

 

[FedEx227]

i think Penny may have had a few too many Damon Stoudamire-esque mediocre seasons at the end of his career that ruined chances. The site lists him at a 6% chance right now. Its a shame.

Yeah I see what you mean that maybe if right after the microfracture he just retired, then people wouldn't remember the PHNX days. The same will probably said for Grant Hill.

Still trying to think of a guy who was really good for a few years, then like a year or two later disappeared from the league.

 

[red33]

wtf is this sht?
Rank Player HoF Prob
1. Shaquille O'Neal 1.0000
2. Tim Duncan 1.0000
3. Kobe Bryant 1.0000
4. Kevin Garnett 1.0000
5. Allen Iverson 1.0000
6. LeBron James 1.0000
7. Dirk Nowitzki 0.9985
8. Steve Nash 0.9972
9. Jason Kidd 0.9842
10. Tracy McGrady 0.9782-he has to be lower. Again so many injury plagued seasons and been playing off his rep for a long time.
11. Paul Pierce 0.9417
12. Ray Allen 0.9085
13. Vince Carter 0.8975 really? This is somewhat questionable. he had just a few years of being dominant. how is he eligible but not Wade right now?
14. Grant Hill 0.7951-No injured too much but IMO betetr chance then TMac.
15. Tony Parker 0.5851
16. Gilbert Arenas 0.5431-ughhhhhh
17. Carmelo Anthony 0.2681-he needs to be higher
18. Chauncey Billups 0.2457-needs to be higher
19. Amare Stoudemire 0.2124
20. Stephon Marbury 0.1981-nope
21. Elton Brand 0.1872-nope
22. Dwight Howard 0.1838-not yet
23. Chris Bosh 0.1602
24. Shawn Marion 0.1523
25. Yao Ming 0.0894-needs to be way higher.
26. Baron Davis 0.0821-
27. Antawn Jamison 0.0593-
28. Manu Ginobili 0.0562-
29. Richard Hamilton 0.0550-nope
30. Jermaine O'Neal 0.0532
31. Pau Gasol 0.0373
32. Carlos Boozer 0.0334
33. Rasheed Wallace 0.0236-nneds to be higher
34. Michael Redd 0.0217-nope
35. Peja Stojakovic 0.0204-nope
36. Joe Johnson 0.0199-nope
37. Mike Bibby 0.0192-nope
38. Jerry Stackhouse 0.0182-nope
39. Michael Finley 0.0175-maybe
40. Andre Miller 0.0161-solid case but prob not
41. Caron Butler 0.0138-wtf
42. Jason Richardson 0.0116-wtf
43. Jason Terry 0.0075-wtf
44. Dikembe Mutombo 0.0065-this dude needs to be way higher, you cant look at only offensive numbers.
45. Lamar Odom 0.0065-nope
46. Richard Jefferson 0.0061-nope
47. Ron Artest 0.0061-interesting case
48. Andre Iguodala 0.0059-nope
49. Zach Randolph 0.0049-hell no
50. Mo Williams 0.0049-helllllllllll nooooooooooooooooooooooooo

 

[A Tasty Burgerr]

Stackhouse used to be a fucking BEAST. He had a scoring title on Detroit I believe.

 

[Lanteri]

Yeah I see what you mean that maybe if right after the microfracture he just retired, then people wouldn't remember the PHNX days. The same will probably said for Grant Hill.

Still trying to think of a guy who was really good for a few years, then like a year or two later disappeared from the league.

Isaiah Rider?

Not sure if he falls under really good.

 

[Maestro]

QFT.

Not like Wade hasn't won a title or anything. Not like he's a scoring champion. Not like he is capable of having a Jordan like year.

Mo Williams though... What a fucking hall of famer. What was he again? Backup allstar this year right?

Wade only started for the allstar team...

I don't see how LeBron = Guaranteed HOF, but Wade doesn't even have a .0005 or whatever percent chance.

Add a finals MVP to Wade's list.

 

[Esjay]

The top 6 are fine with me. All 6 are complete locks, obviously.. I do think Jason Kidd should be a lock and in front of Nash, though. After that I have serious problems with this list.

How is Ray Allen not ahead of Tracy McGrady?

Why is Vince Carter in front of Grant Hill?

Jason Richardson in front of Dikembe?

No way.

 

[Deviant]

Why is Vince Carter in front of Grant Hill?

Because VC's career is shitting on Grant Hill's. Grant doesn't/never scored like VC did, he's not a better shooter that VC, he's not a better defender, and in their primes, VC was far more electrifying.

Also, Grant Hill still can't do 20/5/5 like VC still can. People keep saying VC has fallen, yet his numbers really say otherwise. Carter's value is much higher than Grant Hill's. VC > Grant Hill makes perfect sense.

 

[A Tasty Burgerr]

If the player's predicted probability of election was greater than or equal to 0.5, I predicted that he was in the Hall of Fame. Of the 78 players in the Hall of Fame, 63 were correctly classified (80.8%) and 15 were not (19.2%). Of the 590 players not in the Hall of Fame, 583 were correctly classified (98.8%) and 7 were not (1.2%). Overall, 646 of the 668 players (96.7%) were correctly classified by the model.

Pretty impressive considering how simple the formula is

 

[dell71]

Everyone griping about D-Wade not being on here have missed one very simple piece of the formula - it only counts players who have played at least 400 games. Wade is still a bit shy. Rest assured, when he crosses that mark he'll be pretty high up on the list.

And Stackhouse never won a scoring title.