Hot Stove Rumors Thread

[moneyman255]

FRIDAY: The Cubs will received Wood, Dave Sappelt, and Ronald Torreyes from the Reds for Marshall, reports ESPN's Keith Law (on Twitter). The trade will be announced later today.

Sappelt, a 24-year-old outfielder, hit .243/.289/.318 in 118 plate appearances for Cincinnati last year, his big league debut. He produced a .313/.377/.458 batting line in 336 plate appearances for their Triple-A affiliate in 2011. Torreyes, a 19-year-old infielder, hit .356/.398/.457 in 306 plate appearances at the Low Class-A level this past season. Baseball America ranked Sappelt and Torreyes as the Reds' 20th and 22nd best prospects in last year's Prospect Handbook, respectively.

 

[Rudi]

Wow, I am furious we gave up Sappelt in that deal. I thought it was going to be 2 shitty minor leaguers, not these guys. I don't know much about Torreyes, but he is 19 years old and has hit .370 and .356 the last 2 years of his career at that young age, so he isn't too bad. Sappelt tho :smh: He is a scrappy ball player and thought he would be a nice bench player for us this season.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Rudi! My man! Calm down brother, Sappelt is a fourth OF at best. Torreyes is an A ball guy, and he plays 2B, which is where Hamilton will likely end up if he keeps butchering SS.

These are better players than I thought we would include, but honestly I think Sappelt is a replacement guy at best in the majors.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Im hoping Phipps is ready to play this year so we dont have to sign some shit veteran OF bum.

 

[nflman2033]

Wow, I am furious we gave up Sappelt in that deal. I thought it was going to be 2 shitty minor leaguers, not these guys. I don't know much about Torreyes, but he is 19 years old and has hit .370 and .356 the last 2 years of his career at that young age, so he isn't too bad. Sappelt tho :smh: He is a scrappy ball player and thought he would be a nice bench player for us this season.

Yup, not liking that too much, Marshall better kick some seriously ass

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Cant believe you guys are that bummed out about Dave Sappelt, lol. I like him too, but geez, thats no loss. If thats what it took, they had to do it.

 

[moneyman255]

Theo fleeced you guys. You get Marshall for one year, he'll probably be asking for 6-7+ mil per year as well, considering he's one of the better RP around.

You gave up Travis Wood who is going to be a pretty good pitcher next season for the Cubs, you gave up Torreyes who hit over .350 last year in A and he's only 19 years old. Wood for Marshall would have been an even trade for both sides. Add in Torreyes and Sappelt projected .300 AVG in MLB in 52 G by Bill James, he should be a solid 4th OF'er for the Cubs.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Lol, yeah fleeced. The 7th starter who was likely to be in AAA, and a 4th OF (at best) who looked overmatched last year. FLEECED.

Im not worried about 19 year olds in low A ranked in the 20's. I'll take the top tier LH reliever, we're trying to make a run at this thing. Im tired of stockpiling kids, its time to move them for pieces, Walt is doing a great job.

 

[NAHSTE]

As the music is playing and the camera is fading backwards during the closing second of the show...

"Tough luck for the A's, as they trade Gio Gonzalez to the Nationals for four minor leaguers. He was a good pitcher for them."

...fade to black.

That was the extent of the attention ESPN gave this trade on SportsCenter.

:lol:

So much wrong with this.

 

[Goober]

Theo fleeced you guys. You get Marshall for one year, he'll probably be asking for 6-7+ mil per year as well, considering he's one of the better RP around.

You gave up Travis Wood who is going to be a pretty good pitcher next season for the Cubs, you gave up Torreyes who hit over .350 last year in A and he's only 19 years old. Wood for Marshall would have been an even trade for both sides. Add in Torreyes and Sappelt projected .300 AVG in MLB in 52 G by Bill James, he should be a solid 4th OF'er for the Cubs.

Bill James is the most optimistic projection system known to man.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Even if Sappelt hits .300 in 60 games, i'm not sure why that would stop Jocketty from making this trade.

"Sorry Theo, we're close, but I just can't let go of a guy who projects as a 4th/5th OF at best who wasn't among our top 50 prospects coming into last season. Let's rework this thing."

Seriously, if Dave f'n Sappelt had held up this deal, Jocketty should of been fired.

Someone on twitter made a great point earlier. Reds fans were all over Jocketty for doing NOTHING since the Rolen trade, and then when he utilizes the Reds deep farm system to help win now, the prospect geeks still aren't happy.

He's doing a great job, if trading guys like Sappelt and Boxberger brings back some postseason action, it's a win.

 

[Rudi]

I just think of it this way...honestly how many games can a LHRP make an impact on? Relievers have a pretty high success rate as it is, so the difference between Marshall pitching in the pen and say someone like Logan Ondrusek...Its not that much, definetly not enough to give up Wood, Sappelt and Torreyes. If we traded those 3 guys for a LFer then Itd be different. But our bullpen already has a lot of servicable guys in it, so I dont see any huge upside to adding Marshall.; Sure he is one of the best in the game, but I cant sit here and act like "Oh yeah if we had Marshall last year we would have won 15 more games" or something.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I just think of it this way...honestly how many games can a LHRP make an impact on? Relievers have a pretty high success rate as it is, so the difference between Marshall pitching in the pen and say someone like Logan Ondrusek...Its not that much, definetly not enough to give up Wood, Sappelt and Torreyes. If we traded those 3 guys for a LFer then Itd be different. But our bullpen already has a lot of servicable guys in it, so I dont see any huge upside to adding Marshall.; Sure he is one of the best in the game, but I cant sit here and act like "Oh yeah if we had Marshall last year we would have won 15 more games" or something.

I think you are over valuing Sappelt. He's a backup OF. That's all he'll ever be.

And the kid, Torreyes, is a 19 year old low A-ball player who is 5'7" 140 lbs.

At the same time, I believe you are under valuing Marshall. He had a 2.5 WAR as a relief pitcher. Only Kimbrel and Papelbon were higher.

For comparison, Ondrusek, who is a very useful and capable RP, came in at 0.7. He was 0.3 in 2010. Marshall has never been below 1.0 as a RP, and his career low is 0.7 (Ondrusek's career high).

Now let's look at Bill Bray, who is also LH, and I think we would all agree he's pretty damn effective and one of the best around as far as LOOGY's go. His WAR the last two seasons is 0.1, and 1.0.

So you are talking about getting a guy who has been twice as valuable as the (pretty damn good) RP's we've had the last couple of years. Ondrusek, Bray, Masset, possibly Chapman, Arredondo, Marshall, and possibly a closer yet to be acquired...that's a damn good bullpen. With the Reds strong offense, can you imagine Cueto, Latos, and Leake handing off 4-1 leads to that group? That's exciting stuff, man.

I think Sappelt is a spare part, and Marshall is an impact player. And like I said before, if we are trying to win the next few years, I can't concern myself with Low A 19-year olds at this point unless they are big time prospects (which this kid is not, he's ranked like 22nd on our system).

To me, this is the second deal Jocketty has made that really works as as a good deal for both sides. Good, solid, baseball trades.

 

[Goober]

What humors me about moneyman saying the Reds got robbed, is you know sure as shit he was here bragging about Doug Melvin's great trades last year with a shit eating grin on his face. Both teams decided to sell the farm and went into win now mode.

But here's the kicker, the Reds have everyone under team control for a few years, the Brewers opening was one year. That's it. Maybe two, but if Braun is suspended, then good luck getting out of that hole in 112 games. AND, the Reds still have their best prospects, the Brewers shipped out Lawrie and Odorizzi in a blink of an eye. But the Reds sucks, and Doug Melvin is a genius. Riiiiiiiiight.

It sucks.

 

[moneyman255]

What humors me about moneyman saying the Reds got robbed, is you know sure as shit he was here bragging about Doug Melvin's great trades last year with a shit eating grin on his face. Both teams decided to sell the farm and went into win now mode.

But here's the kicker, the Reds have everyone under team control for a few years, the Brewers opening was one year. That's it. Maybe two, but if Braun is suspended, then good luck getting out of that hole in 112 games. AND, the Reds still have their best prospects, the Brewers shipped out Lawrie and Odorizzi in a blink of an eye. But the Reds sucks, and Doug Melvin is a genius. Riiiiiiiiight.

It sucks.

Marshall is under team control for just next season. He is going to command 6-7 mil+ per year to re-sign with the Reds. If he was cheaper and under team control for a few years, I would agree with you. He's not. They are going to have to pay him to keep him around.

Right, because the Brewers gave up a LOT for Greinke, right? God, you aren't even a Brewers fan. The window is one year? LMAO, because you can't re-sign Greinke or Marcum, right? Fielder is a hell of a player, but last year he was worth around 5.8 wins. Gonzalez/A-Ram are really big upgrades over McGehee/Betancourt. Hell, Gonzalez/A-Ram/Gamel are projected to be worth 6 WAR next season. McGehee/Betancourt/Fielder were around 6.4 WAR. Add in a full season of K-Rod, to go along with Axford, and you are talking about a team that will miss Fielder, but it won't set the Crew back that much.

Here is who the Royals got for Greinke:

Escobar: .254 AVG, 4 HR, 46 RBI, .290 OBP
Cain: .312 AVG, .380 OBP, 16 HR, 81 RBI (AAA)
Jeffress: 4.70 ERA, 15.1 IP, 11 BB, 13 K, 1.50 WHIP
Jake Odorizzi: 147 IP, 3.73 ERA, 44 BB, 157 K (AA)

The only people the Brewers will miss is Cain and maybe Odorizzi. Escobar has never been a great hitting SS, and even in the minors he struggled at the plate. Odorizzi took a step back last season.

Look at what Melvin gave up for Sabathia, LaPorta, Brantley are pretty much busts.

You hate on Melvin WAY too much. Where would Lawrie have played for the Brewers? Most scouts said he would be awful at 3B, and the Brewers had McGehee who hit .280+ with 100 RBI's the two years prior. Obviously, last year he just tanked, but meh.

If the Brewers can re-sign both Marcum and Greinke, you really think the Brewers are going to suck for years to come? Ok. They still have Lucroy, Weeks, Hart, Morgan/Gomez, Braun, Axford, Gamel, Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum. Then you have minor league talent with Fiers, Peralta, and Thornburg, then add in the two SP they drafted last year in the 1st round.

The Reds need another SP if they want to compete, because we all know good starting pitching/bullpen and defense is what wins games.

 

[NAHSTE]

Add in a full season of K-Rod, to go along with Axford, and you are talking about a team that will miss Fielder, but it won't set the Crew back that much.

:jonesy:

 

[NAHSTE]

You hate on Melvin WAY too much. Where would Lawrie have played for the Brewers? Most scouts said he would be awful at 3B, and the Brewers had McGehee who hit .280+ with 100 RBI's the two years prior.

:jonesy:

 

[moneyman255]

Cool, look at how the Brewers did in 2009 and 2010 without Greinke and Marcum, and with pretty much the same lineup they had in 2011 (Weeks, Hart, Braun, Fielder, Lucroy, McGehee etc)

How many games did they win then? PITCHING wins games. Greinke/Marcum both had sub 3.8 ERA's last. Pair them with Gallardo and Wolf pitching like a good #4, and you know why the team won so many games last season.

Latos had a 3.2 WAR last season. Marshall had a 2.8 WAR in 2011 and 3.1 WAR combined in 09 and 10. To compare, Greinke had a 3.9 WAR and he missed a month last year. In 2009, Greinke had a 9.3 WAR (CY year) and in 2010 he had a 5.1 WAR. K-Rod had a 1.4 WAR in 2010 and 2011. Brewers also gave up hardly anyone to get him. Obv. he's overpaid now though. So last season, Greinke/K-Rod combined for a 5.3 WAR, while Latos/Marshall combined for a 5.0 WAR. Reds also gave up WAY more prospects to get these two compared to the Brewers.

Let's say Latos and Marshall combined for about a 5.5 WAR next season, and you add in some games because the Reds clearly underachieved, you still arent talking about a 92-93 win team, which is what the Cardinals probably are.

Like I said, Reds right now are probably projected for about 88-90 wins. Cardinals 92-94 wins, and Brewers around where the Reds are, probably 89-91 wins. It's clearly the Cardinals division to lose, but I would still argue the Reds arent better than the Brewers.

 

[moneyman255]

The Following User Says NO Thank You to moneyman255 For This Un-useful Post: FirstTimer

Nice, groan and don't explain yourself.

 

[Youk]

Who exactly will be playing 1B for Milwaukee in 2012?

I believe that even with the WAR coming close to the 2011 levels, that Milwaukee will not come close to that in 2012. I know the statistics are saying that, but you still are losing the production of Fielder. Fielder played damn close to every game each year (including all 162 last year), hit 38 home runs, 120 RBIs, and scored 94 runs.