Hot Stove Rumors Thread

[moneyman255]

Mat Gamel is projected to play 1B right now. Brewers could always move Hart to 1B as well, and maybe sign a veteran to platoon with Gamel at 1B.

Here is a good article on the Brewers for next season:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/20...nce-fielder/index.html?sct=hp_wr_a5&eref=sihp

Good quote:

The signings of Alex Gonzalez and Aramis Ramirez show that direction. Ramirez is a huge upgrade over the tandem of Casey McGehee and Jerry Hairston Jr. that the Brewers had last season. McGehee's collapse last season and impending expense pushed the Brewers to move him, but Ramirez has the potential to give the team about two wins over McGehee's production.

It's the same with Gonzalez. "He's worth [about] 30 runs over [Yuniesky] Betancourt," Ash explained. The stats and scouts back him up. But can any defensive improvement make up for the loss of a slugger who was an underrated defensive player?

The Brewers defense was just awful last year with McGehee/Betancourt at 3B/SS.

 

[FirstTimer]

The Following User Says NO Thank You to moneyman255 For This Un-useful Post: FirstTimer

Nice, groan and don't explain yourself.

Your posts suck.

Explained.

LOL at constantly using WAR to say the Brewers will be fine. ESPN did the same thing with Beltran and Pujols this morning.

:yao:

Nothing like using a theoretical number(not even a stat) to back up the Brewers getting shredded this offseason.

All your postings have proven nothing and just come off as homer-riffic blathering.

 

[NAHSTE]

How many games did they win then? PITCHING wins games. Greinke/Marcum both had sub 3.8 ERA's last year.

:jonesy:

Wow, setting the bar mighty high today aren't we? Did not realize I was supposed to be impressed with Greinke posting the exact same ERA as Charlie Morton and Mike Leake, which was good for 58th best among qualified pitchers.

 

[Slateman]

Fuck yea!!! Gio to my Nationals!!!

Good trade. Nats gave up a lot, but Gio gives them Strasburg, Gio, and Zimmermann under team control for four years. Definitely a potent rotation.

Now ... Rizzo must continue the hunt for his White Whale ...

 

[FirstTimer]

Now ... Rizzo must continue the hunt for his White Whale ...

I'm pretty sure Prince is black.

 

[Slateman]

I'm pretty sure Prince is black.

The White Whale is actually the leadoff hitting center fielder that the he has been trying to trade for for the past three years.

However, for whatever reason, he didn't want to give up Detwiler in order to trade for Michael Bourn ....

 

[NAHSTE]

Fuck yea!!! Gio to my Nationals!!!

Good trade. Nats gave up a lot, but Gio gives them Strasburg, Gio, and Zimmermann under team control for four years. Definitely a potent rotation.

Now ... Rizzo must continue the hunt for his White Whale ...

You mean Jayson Werth's contract ISN'T the white whale?

 

[FirstTimer]

The White Whale is actually the leadoff hitting center fielder that the he has been trying to trade for for the past three years.

However, for whatever reason, he didn't want to give up Detwiler in order to trade for Michael Bourn ....

More than likely black.

:champ:

The Upton rumors dead?

 

[Slateman]

You mean Jayson Werth's contract ISN'T the white whale?

No, thats the Albatross

More than likely black.

:champ:

The Upton rumors dead?

Probably.

Not so much dead as the Rays wanting way too much for a guy who will be a free agent after next year. Personally, I'm underwhelmed by Upton. He doesn't hit for average anymore. He doesn't walk and likes to strike out 150 times (and the Nats were tops in strike outs last year). Also, questions about hard play and attitude surround him.

 

[Goober]

Marshall is under team control for just next season. He is going to command 6-7 mil+ per year to re-sign with the Reds. If he was cheaper and under team control for a few years, I would agree with you. He's not. They are going to have to pay him to keep him around.

They gave up a 5th starter, 4th outfielder and a fringe prospect. Who cares? I'm sure it's less then what the A's want for Bailey.

Right, because the Brewers gave up a LOT for Greinke, right? God, you aren't even a Brewers fan. The window is one year? LMAO, because you can't re-sign Greinke or Marcum, right? Fielder is a hell of a player, but last year he was worth around 5.8 wins. Gonzalez/A-Ram are really big upgrades over McGehee/Betancourt. Hell, Gonzalez/A-Ram/Gamel are projected to be worth 6 WAR next season. McGehee/Betancourt/Fielder were around 6.4 WAR. Add in a full season of K-Rod, to go along with Axford, and you are talking about a team that will miss Fielder, but it won't set the Crew back that much.

Holy shit, so now we're going to resign Greinke and Marcum, tie up 75 million on six players? Yeah I bet that happens. I've said I support resigning Greinke more then any other offseason move possibly, but every day I get a little more worried that it won't happen. Melvin pissed the money away on that asinine contract to Ramirez.

I'd love to see where you're getting your numbers from on the Gonzalez/A-Ram/Gamel craptrio expected War. Gonzalez put up 1.1 WAR, and A-Ram put up 3.6. We're lucky if that holds steady, but the odds are they're up for regression. So at minimum you're expecting Mat Gamel, the guy who is putting up a .167 batting average in the Dominican leagues this winter to be worth 1.3 wins? Eric Hosmer was worth 1.6, and he shits all over Mat Gamel.

Here is who the Royals got for Greinke:

Escobar: .254 AVG, 4 HR, 46 RBI, .290 OBP
Cain: .312 AVG, .380 OBP, 16 HR, 81 RBI (AAA)
Jeffress: 4.70 ERA, 15.1 IP, 11 BB, 13 K, 1.50 WHIP
Jake Odorizzi: 147 IP, 3.73 ERA, 44 BB, 157 K (AA)

The only people the Brewers will miss is Cain and maybe Odorizzi. Escobar has never been a great hitting SS, and even in the minors he struggled at the plate. Odorizzi took a step back last season.

and maybe Odorizzi.

Wut? Wut? Wut? I'm sorry but you're clueless. Odorizzi is the best player in the deal, and the Brewers certainly miss him. He's better then Jungmann or anyone else in the system right now. You're delusional if you think he took a step back this year, he shit all over A+ ball and made the mid season all star team, and then held his own in AA ball, in his age 21 season! Don't get me wrong, I still support the Greinke deal, but don't act like the Brewers got him for a bag of shit, especially when you clearly aren't even familiar with the prospects.

Look at what Melvin gave up for Sabathia, LaPorta, Brantley are pretty much busts.

You hate on Melvin WAY too much. Where would Lawrie have played for the Brewers? Most scouts said he would be awful at 3B, and the Brewers had McGehee who hit .280+ with 100 RBI's the two years prior. Obviously, last year he just tanked, but meh.

Don't question my fanhood just because I don't blindly support every move by the team! I choose to recognize the limitations that the team playing in the smallest market in the MLB has. Melvin doesn't, sure he might use it as a scapegoat for Fielder leaving, but the rest of his moves don't back it up.

If the Brewers can re-sign both Marcum and Greinke, you really think the Brewers are going to suck for years to come? Ok. They still have Lucroy, Weeks, Hart, Morgan/Gomez, Braun, Axford, Gamel, Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum. Then you have minor league talent with Fiers, Peralta, and Thornburg, then add in the two SP they drafted last year in the 1st round.

The Reds need another SP if they want to compete, because we all know good starting pitching/bullpen and defense is what wins games.

I'm confused, the Brewers have two Greinkes? Do we get to keep the one who pitched in May, or the one who pitched in August. If Braun is suspended for 50 games, that offense is going to blow, there's no way around it, and after 2012, it's a crap shoot, our top prospects are gone.

The Reds, on the other hand, have everyone under team control for multiple years, if they resign Votto past 2013, watch out! And they still have their top prospects, how is that not a better situation then what the Brewers were in last spring?

 

[Goober]

Cool, look at how the Brewers did in 2009 and 2010 without Greinke and Marcum, and with pretty much the same lineup they had in 2011 (Weeks, Hart, Braun, Fielder, Lucroy, McGehee etc)

How many games did they win then? PITCHING wins games. Greinke/Marcum both had sub 3.8 ERA's last. Pair them with Gallardo and Wolf pitching like a good #4, and you know why the team won so many games last season.

Latos had a 3.2 WAR last season. Marshall had a 2.8 WAR in 2011 and 3.1 WAR combined in 09 and 10. To compare, Greinke had a 3.9 WAR and he missed a month last year. In 2009, Greinke had a 9.3 WAR (CY year) and in 2010 he had a 5.1 WAR. K-Rod had a 1.4 WAR in 2010 and 2011. Brewers also gave up hardly anyone to get him. Obv. he's overpaid now though. So last season, Greinke/K-Rod combined for a 5.3 WAR, while Latos/Marshall combined for a 5.0 WAR. Reds also gave up WAY more prospects to get these two compared to the Brewers.

Let's say Latos and Marshall combined for about a 5.5 WAR next season, and you add in some games because the Reds clearly underachieved, you still arent talking about a 92-93 win team, which is what the Cardinals probably are.

Like I said, Reds right now are probably projected for about 88-90 wins. Cardinals 92-94 wins, and Brewers around where the Reds are, probably 89-91 wins. It's clearly the Cardinals division to lose, but I would still argue the Reds arent better than the Brewers.

Which is exactly why I want the Brewers to resign Greinke, not waist the money on mid thirty players who are ready to regress into a black hole contract. Ramirez will flop in Milwaukee. That's a guarantee. I just hope we get one good year out of him before the tires fall off.

Below you mention the Brewers upgrading defense. Sure they upgraded SS, but if you believe in UZR Gonzalez is slowing down. And Ramirez is the 3B defensive equivalent of Betancourt! He fucking sucks. Gomez remains the only premium defensive player on this team.

 

[Slateman]

Rays wanted Clippard or Storen in the Upton deal and the Nats were offering Desmond. They'd rather lose Upton to free agency then trade him for a bottom of the barrel SS that most likely won't improve. Worst case scenario they move him at the trade deadline this year.

Pretty much what I've read.

I don't think Rizzo understands how truly awful Desmond is. If you're offering him in trade, you have to offer more for them to take him.

I hope Desi is on a short leash next season. Lombardozzi can play second base at least as well as Espinosa. And Espinosa was a damn good shortstop coming up. I gotta think Lombo can at least match Desmond's .253/.298/.358 numbers

 

[moneyman255]

They gave up a 5th starter, 4th outfielder and a fringe prospect. Who cares? I'm sure it's less then what the A's want for Bailey.


Holy shit, so now we're going to resign Greinke and Marcum, tie up 75 million on six players? Yeah I bet that happens. I've said I support resigning Greinke more then any other offseason move possibly, but every day I get a little more worried that it won't happen. Melvin pissed the money away on that asinine contract to Ramirez.

I'd love to see where you're getting your numbers from on the Gonzalez/A-Ram/Gamel craptrio expected War. Gonzalez put up 1.1 WAR, and A-Ram put up 3.6. We're lucky if that holds steady, but the odds are they're up for regression. So at minimum you're expecting Mat Gamel, the guy who is putting up a .167 batting average in the Dominican leagues this winter to be worth 1.3 wins? Eric Hosmer was worth 1.6, and he shits all over Mat Gamel.



Wut? Wut? Wut? I'm sorry but you're clueless. Odorizzi is the best player in the deal, and the Brewers certainly miss him. He's better then Jungmann or anyone else in the system right now. You're delusional if you think he took a step back this year, he shit all over A+ ball and made the mid season all star team, and then held his own in AA ball, in his age 21 season! Don't get me wrong, I still support the Greinke deal, but don't act like the Brewers got him for a bag of shit, especially when you clearly aren't even familiar with the prospects.


Don't question my fanhood just because I don't blindly support every move by the team! I choose to recognize the limitations that the team playing in the smallest market in the MLB has. Melvin doesn't, sure he might use it as a scapegoat for Fielder leaving, but the rest of his moves don't back it up.


I'm confused, the Brewers have two Greinkes? Do we get to keep the one who pitched in May, or the one who pitched in August. If Braun is suspended for 50 games, that offense is going to blow, there's no way around it, and after 2012, it's a crap shoot, our top prospects are gone.

The Reds, on the other hand, have everyone under team control for multiple years, if they resign Votto past 2013, watch out! And they still have their top prospects, how is that not a better situation then what the Brewers were in last spring?

The Reds overpaid for Latos. Brewers got a former cy young award winner for a pretty good SP prospect, overrated SS prospect, a RP who is a crackhead and then Lorenzo Cain. Reds gave up Alonso who is easily a better player than whoever the Brewers traded.

Brewers can easily afford both Greinke and Marcum. After this season, Wolf's and K-Rod's contracts come off the books. Wolf is making I believe 10 million this season, and K-Rod is going to be making 13 million. That's 23 between those two players.

You can replace Morgan (about 3 mil) with Logan Schafer, who looks to be a pretty good player. Caleb Gindi can replace Corey Hart in a year or two as well. He has some potential to be a pretty good player as well.

Using Gamel's winterleague stats is utter bullshit. Just because a guy does terrible in winterleague doesnt mean shit. Narron is going to be working with him during ST in the spring, and he deserves every shot to be an everyday 1B.

Projected (FanGraphs)

Alex Gonzalez: .244 AVG, .277 OBP, .377 SLG, 13 HR, 49 RBI, 1.3 WAR
A-Ram: .287 AVG, .340 OBP, .469 SLG, 22 HR, 87 RBI, 3.0 WAR

Greinke is going to be better than last year as well. His 2nd half, he had a 2.59 ERA and went 9-3 after the AS break. It was obvious that he was pitching much better in the first half than what his #'s showed. FIP on the year was 2.98 and XFIP was 2.56.

Brewers can easily sustain a payroll of 100 million or so. 3 million fans 3 of the last 4 years, and Mark A has proven he would spend to put a good team on the field.

So, Goblin, what would you have done this season? Start 2 rookies in Green ad Gamel after you just won 96 games and was 2 wins away from the W.S.?

Really would like to hear your plan this off-season.

And btw, A-Ram is making 6/10/10 with a 4 mil buyout and 6 mil defered in 2018 or some shit like that.

How is that exactly overpaying?

 

[NAHSTE]

Alex Gonzalez: .244 AVG, .277 OBP, .377 SLG, 13 HR, 49 RBI, 1.3 WAR

That is so shitty. I would much rather have Alcides Escobar because at least he runs and is still young enough to maybe improve. Sea Bass is at the end of his line and he's an awful offensive player at this point.

 

[moneyman255]

Brewers didnt have many options at SS this year. It was either paying Furcal 7-8 mil per year, paying Rollins 11 mil per year for 4 years, or signing someone like Barmes for 5-5.5 mil per year.

At least Alex Gonzalez plays really good defense.

 

[NAHSTE]

Brewers didnt have many options at SS this year. It was either paying Furcal 7-8 mil per year, paying Rollins 11 mil per year for 4 years, or signing someone like Barmes for 5-5.5 mil per year.

At least Alex Gonzalez plays really good defense.

Okay that's fine but don't try to factor his offensive production or his 1.3 WAR, which is essentially replacement level for a shortstop anyway, when you are trying to illustrate how good the Brewers will be.

 

[Youk]

Saying that Gamel is worth even ANY wins is a load of shit, because he actually has never had a WAR above 1. Oh wait, sorry, in 2009 he had a WAR of 0.1.

This thing is just another statistic. That's why you have players like Lance Berkman who just go off like he did last year, with no statistic predicting that.

 

[moneyman255]

I am saying that SS and 3B are really big upgrades over what they were last season. Betancourt couldnt hit worth of shit and was one of the worst defensive SS in the league. So, Gonzalez being above-average at D is doing to improve the club. Scouts and Gord Ash said Alex G would save about 30 more runs on defense compared to Betancourt, don't you think that would help the team next year?

McGehee hit like .220 last year, don't you think Arams will be a big offensive upgrade over McGehee?

1B is a huge question mark for me. Gamel needs to produce.

 

[moneyman255]

Saying that Gamel is worth even ANY wins is a load of shit, because he actually has never had a WAR above 1. Oh wait, sorry, in 2009 he had a WAR of 0.1.

This thing is just another statistic. That's why you have players like Lance Berkman who just go off like he did last year, with no statistic predicting that.

He's had no chance to really prove himself. He hardly played when he was with the team.

 

[Goober]

The Reds overpaid for Latos. Brewers got a former cy young award winner for a pretty good SP prospect, overrated SS prospect, a RP who is a crackhead and then Lorenzo Cain. Reds gave up Alonso who is easily a better player than whoever the Brewers traded.

Please stop. You're clearly not familiar with the prospects you're talking about at all. Odorizzi was ranked the 23rd best prospect in baseball by Baseball America in July. Alonso was left off the list. Greinke is better then Lotos, yes. But the Reds get Alonso for twice as long and and he costs less. You keep saying Escobar sucks, but the fangraph WAR projections you keep citing project Escobar to have a higher WAR then Ramirez. :troll:

Brewers can easily afford both Greinke and Marcum. After this season, Wolf's and K-Rod's contracts come off the books. Wolf is making I believe 10 million this season, and K-Rod is going to be making 13 million. That's 23 between those two players.

Yeah, Wolf, and K-rod will be gone. But you're not even considering the raises that Braun, Weeks, Hart, Ramirez, Greinke, and Marcum will all be getting from their 2012 salaries. Not to mention that at this point all the cheap talent currently filling the roster will be arbitration eligible. That's a BIG payroll.

You can replace Morgan (about 3 mil) with Logan Schafer, who looks to be a pretty good player. Caleb Gindi can replace Corey Hart in a year or two as well. He has some potential to be a pretty good player as well.

Both fourth outfielders. Corey Hart blows, and I'm fine with a platoon there for a year if they trade him, but his long term replacement isn't on the team right now, or down on the farm.

Using Gamel's winterleague stats is utter bullshit. Just because a guy does terrible in winterleague doesnt mean shit. Narron is going to be working with him during ST in the spring

It is still concerning. Starting MLB firstbaseman shouldn't suck that hard playing down there. I hope Gamel can regain the hitting prowess that made him a top prospect, but there really isn't much to be optimistic about.

Projected (FanGraphs)

Alex Gonzalez: .244 AVG, .277 OBP, .377 SLG, 13 HR, 49 RBI, 1.3 WAR
A-Ram: .287 AVG, .340 OBP, .469 SLG, 22 HR, 87 RBI, 3.0 WAR

Greinke is going to be better than last year as well. His 2nd half, he had a 2.59 ERA and went 9-3 after the AS break. It was obvious that he was pitching much better in the first half than what his #'s showed. FIP on the year was 2.98 and XFIP was 2.56.

Brewers can easily sustain a payroll of 100 million or so. 3 million fans 3 of the last 4 years, and Mark A has proven he would spend to put a good team on the field.

I've never disputed Greinke's God status, but what happens when the offense sucks ass because Braun is out 50 games? The fans will stop showing up that's a fact. Braun and Fielder were the main draws, and without them fans will lose interest if the Brewers fall in a hole to start the season. It's pessimistic but true, one of the problems of playing in the smallest market in baseball. The payroll is stretched to the limits as it is, and that's coming off a NLCS run. Attanasio wants to win but he isn't stupid either, if the Brewers have a let down season (likely) that payroll is getting slashed.

So, Goblin, what would you have done this season? Start 2 rookies in Green ad Gamel after you just won 96 games and was 2 wins away from the W.S.?

Really would like to hear your plan this off-season.

And btw, A-Ram is making 6/10/10 with a 4 mil buyout and 6 mil defered in 2018 or some shit like that.

How is that exactly overpaying?

Trade for Jed Lowrie. Sign Carlos Pena to a one year deal. Low risk-high reward moves, don't sign old injury prone players prone to regress.