NCAA Basketball Tournament forecasting

[FirstTimer]

Michigan beating Michigan St should put Michigan in the tourney. Michigan jumps Michigan St with the series sweep. Seems like Michigan State now is in some trouble.

Michigan won that game despite the refs trying to hand them the game the entire damn time.

 

[Archer]

Some Conference Tourney Results/Impressions

NC-Asheville won the Big South Championship over Coastal Carolina - I believe CC were 5 pt favs so I guess that's the first tourney shock of the Year.

Belmont CRUSHED North Florida in the A-Sun Title Game - Watched the first half and Belmont were just far too good. I stand by my ncaa tourney sleeper prediction.

Morehead State beat Tennessee Tech in the OVC Final

CAA Qtrs - Everything went to plan seeding wise despite VCU flirting with defeat v Drexel. George Mason appeared to mess with Georgia State then just blew them out in the second half. ODU played a typical low scoring grind it out ODU game.

George Mason and VCU face off in Semi Number one and ODU meet Hofstra in the other. Interesting to see what the selection panel does if ODU and George Mason lose.

Horizion Semi-Finals - Butler beat Cleveland St for the third time this year and Milwaukee (home team) beat Valpo in the other semi - Shame to see that Cole won't be in the NCAA Tourney.

MVC Semi-Finals - Indiana St upset Wichita and Missouri St beat Creighton as predicted by the whole world. I expected Wichita to be the class of the MVC this year so I guess I was horribly wrong on that one.

Ivy League - Harvard beat Princeton in a pretty good game (suprisingly)

- Princeton now must beat Penn on Tuesday to force a one game playoff with Harvard.

 

[Senser81]

Lots of small conference tournament upsets...we'll see if these result in some at-large bids being taken by the Missouri States and Coastal Carolinas.

 

[jeffx]

I say the Big East gets ten teams, with Cincinnati being that tenth team.

 

[Archer]

Lots of small conference tournament upsets...we'll see if these result in some at-large bids being taken by the Missouri States and Coastal Carolinas.

Coastal Carolina is done. With their best player being suspended and not even winning the Big South. I don't think they are even a bubble team anymore.

Missouri St is a little more interesting imo. They look like a tourney team when you watch them and they did rack up alot of wins but The Valley was so bad this year that it means they basically have zero quality wins.

I think the big games that bubble teams should worry about tonight is Butler v Milwaukee and VCU v ODU. VCU winning would give the CAA THREE bids and Milwaukee winning would probably give the Horizion two.

 

[Archer]

I say the Big East gets ten teams, with Cincinnati being that tenth team.

I still think they get 11

The Bubble teams are so weak this year that Marquette's resume still looks better then most despite not beating anybody OOC.

 

[A Tasty Burgerr]

If we beat Providence, we're pretty much in. If we beat Providence and WVU we're a lock. If we lose to Providence it will be very close, but I'd say we're probably out.

We destroyed Providence when we played them the first time, I'll be stunned if we lose.

 

[Woy]

Lots of small conference tournament upsets...we'll see if these result in some at-large bids being taken by the Missouri States and Coastal Carolinas.

That makes me happy if RMU can win on Wednesday over LIU. I don't mind if we're a 16 seed, but I really don't want to be in the stupid play-in game.

 

[Archer]

That makes me happy if RMU can win on Wednesday over LIU. I don't mind if we're a 16 seed, but I really don't want to be in the stupid play-in game.

I thought the "last four in" played in the First Four this year?

 

[Woy]

I thought the "last four in" played in the First Four this year?

There are two play-in games for 12 seeds, and the typical play-in game for a 16 seed, I believe.

e: WTF THERE'S TWO 16 SEED PLAY IN GAMES!? FUCK YOU NCAA

It makes sense numbers wise now, but seriously, this 68 team field is so fucking stupid. Play-in games are fucking garbage.

 

[Sharkweather]

UGA/Alabama, elimination game. Bring it on.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

There are two play-in games for 12 seeds, and the typical play-in game for a 16 seed, I believe.

e: WTF THERE'S TWO 16 SEED PLAY IN GAMES!? FUCK YOU NCAA

It makes sense numbers wise now, but seriously, this 68 team field is so fucking stupid. Play-in games are fucking garbage.

Well, they arent play in games, they are Opening Round games, but I get what you are saying.

I like it. I have no problem extending the first week by two days. Tuesday and Wednsday night should be a lot of fun with the doubleheaders.

In fact, I've always felt that all four 16 seeds should be determined with the Opening Round games. It gives these schools a chance to win a game and feel like they are actually a part of thing, instead of just going out and getting thrashed, losing by 40, and being out of the tournament by halftime of game one.

They should just go to 70 and add two more opening rounders for the other two 16 seeds.

 

[Senser81]

There are two play-in games for 12 seeds, and the typical play-in game for a 16 seed, I believe.

e: WTF THERE'S TWO 16 SEED PLAY IN GAMES!? FUCK YOU NCAA

It makes sense numbers wise now, but seriously, this 68 team field is so fucking stupid. Play-in games are fucking garbage.

I don't understand the logic, and it hasn't really been explained, but I give the NCAA credit for at least making two of the play in games #12 seed games. Thats better than 4 #16 seed games.

Also, I don't understand how Tennessee can even be in the field at this point, much less an 8-seed. They are 5th in the SEC EAST DIVISION! They are 8-8 in the conference, 18-13 overall. They have the 7th best conference record and 8th best overall record in the SEC. Most importantly, Bruce Pearl's team will probably have to vacate all their wins this year.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Tennessee is horrendous, I can't fathom that they will get an 8 seed.

 

[StealthShot]

Are we doing a VSN tournament or what?

 

[Archer]

I don't understand the logic, and it hasn't really been explained, but I give the NCAA credit for at least making two of the play in games #12 seed games. Thats better than 4 #16 seed games.

Also, I don't understand how Tennessee can even be in the field at this point, much less an 8-seed. They are 5th in the SEC EAST DIVISION! They are 8-8 in the conference, 18-13 overall. They have the 7th best conference record and 8th best overall record in the SEC. Most importantly, Bruce Pearl's team will probably have to vacate all their wins this year.

RPI - 36
SOS - 3
Record vs. Top 50: 7-6
Good Wins - Road v Pitt, Neutral v Nova, Vandy x2
Bad L's - Charlotte, Charleston, Oakland

While I agree they kinda suck... I'm looking at other bubble teams and nearly all of them have terrible records v the top 50 and an inferior RPI to Tennessee.

Also Lunardi is generally not very good at seeding. He just gets the teams in and out correct usually [i'm guessing you saw he had them as an 8]

 

[FirstTimer]

Tennessee has a better resume than Illinois by far IMO.

I'd put Tennessee in the tourny but leave Illinois at home as of right now.

 

[FirstTimer]

WTF.

Lunardi has Illinois has a 9 seed?

:jonesy:

 

[Woy]

Well, they arent play in games, they are Opening Round games, but I get what you are saying.

I like it. I have no problem extending the first week by two days. Tuesday and Wednsday night should be a lot of fun with the doubleheaders.

In fact, I've always felt that all four 16 seeds should be determined with the Opening Round games. It gives these schools a chance to win a game and feel like they are actually a part of thing, instead of just going out and getting thrashed, losing by 40, and being out of the tournament by halftime of game one.

They should just go to 70 and add two more opening rounders for the other two 16 seeds.

I understand what you're saying as well, but I have a different mindset.

As a possible #16 seed, I rather play the #1 seed from the beginning than play a play-in/opening round game. As a student and fan of a smaller-school, when playing someone like, for example Lafayette University, it just makes it seem that it's a meaningless non-conference, neutral site game in December. There's obviously meaning to it, but playing at Dayton against Lafayette is a lot less appealing to playing someone like Ohio State at one of the first round tourney sites.

Smaller schools, no matter how small of a chance they have against a #1 seed, experience more of the tournament's magic by playing the top school instead of playing in a play-in/opening round game. Eventually one of these #16 seeds will beat a #1 (maybe in the near future considering that the quality of basketball in the top conferences has gone down, IMO), but a lot of these teams won't get a chance to pull off an improbable upset because they were knocked out in some "play-in" game, when they already played themselves into the big dance by winning their conference tournament.

My opinion might be different than someone else's from a small school, but I feel pretty strongly about this.

tl;dr - I rather play a #1 seed, have the opportunity to pull a historic upset and more than likely lose by 40, than play in a play-in game and possibly not experience the actual tournament.

 

[Woy]

St. Peter's won the MAAC tournament. We held them to 30 freakin' points to start the season in a 55-30 blowout, lol.