I disagree that Freeman is great on 3rd and 4th downs. I saw him toss up several 50/50 balls last year in those situations near the end of games, and his teammates happened to come down with them. These things tend to balance out over time. I hate to use the word luck, but he was extremely lucky in that regard last year.
Bullshit. You're just talking out your neck now. You can't have only 1 turnover (fumbles lost included - zero lost btw) in 172 3rd and 4th down attempts by getting lucky with 50/50 balls. Several? As I recall he had very few of these so called 50/50 plays, not several.
IE: 2010 highlight reel
Notice how most of his highlights on this reel are on 3rd downs BTW.
0:45 - 3rd and 11 - Avoided the blitz, put on a move and picked it up with his feet.
1:10 - 3rd and Goal from the 10 yd line - Freeman adjusts nicely in the pocket and makes a nice pass with touch over the LB, and yet with enough zip to get it on the edge where only Winslow could get to it, outside the DB's reach.
1:20 - 3rd and 10 @ 34 yd line - Great touch, puting the ball up and over his WRs outside shoulder where only Mike Spurlock #81 could get it. Great touch pass downfield for a touchdown.
2:05 - 3rd and 4 from @ 36 yd line - Made a good move inside the pocket, avoided the rush, and accelerates well to avoid some defenders breathing down his neck and scrambles for 21 yards.
2:20 - 3rd and 13 backed up on his own 1 - Looks off his 1st read and again shows good deep ball accuracy by hitting Spurlock 38 yards downfield for the 1st down.
2:30 - 3rd and 1 @ 8 yd line - This might be one of the 50/50's ur talkin about. But I see it differently. I see Mike Williams covered by bump'n'run and the DB never gets a finger on him as Mike runs right by him, Freeman very quickly off his back foot throws it up, and I have to believe Freeman felt Mike could make that jump ball. Which he did, the 9er DB spun around dumbfounded and was flagged for PI anyhow. The jump ball wasn't exactly a 50/50 proposition IMO.
2:38 - 3rd and 10 from own 20 - Simple drop back and puts the ball in an area away from the defender where Mike can go get it for another 40+ yd first down.
3:09 - 3rd and 4 from the 41 - Stands tall in the pocket and threads a pass over the middle for a crossing Winslow to pick up another 1st down.
3:16 - 4th and 11 from the 47 - He steps up into the pocket, avoids the sack from behind and throws a rope threading it between 4 DBs who were around some dude #18 who came up with the 16 yd first down. Not exactly a luck shot, only 1 defender had a shot on the ball, and he was too late as Freeman's pass came quickly.
3:25 - 3rd and 10 @ 36 -Steps up into the pocket, stands tall, takes a hit as he delivers another great pass to catch Williams in stride on another 35 yard 1st down play.
4:48 - 4th and 1.5 yds at the 18 - It looks like Freeman was supposed to make a QB sneak up the gut, but his center got blasted back into his face, he takes a look left as he runs backwards, then looks to Mike Williams as he's throwing off his back foot, running backwards 10 yards behind the LOS, he puts it up high for Mike to go up and get it and scores a nice 29 yd pass on target and off his back foot in a good location for Mike to go up and get it outside the DBs reach. Mike is great at these jump balls and it was great of Freeman to not force a bad QB sneak, keep the play alive, avoid the rush, keep his eyes downfield as he extended the play and make a throw with enough air and distance to score. It was good QB play.
4:57 - 4th and goal @ the 2 - Freeman throws off his back foot and finds Williams not quite in the back of the endzone but close, where again nobody but Mike could get the ball. Another good solid accurate pass.
5:07 - 3rd and 17 @ his own 25 - Freeman breaks two tackles, as he scrambles right, keeps his eyes downfield and hits Winslow with a very good accurate pass that he puts just over a defender where only Winslow can get to it in stride, for a 40 yd 1st down.
6:43 - 3rd and goal @ the 1 - Play action pass, Freeman sells it, spins to his backside and gives an easy catchable ball off his back leg for some O-lineman to catch, and you know they got hands like lunch boxes and need easy to catch balls.
3:34 - 3rd and 10 @ the opp. 20 - Stands tall in the pocket, throws off his back foot again and takes a big hit as he deliver with zip to Williams for a well timed pass play at the 5 yard line as Mike takes it in stride and dives for the TD, no way the DB stood a chance.
7:29 - 3rd and 10 backed up on their own 9 yd line - Freeman again stands tall in the pocket and hits Williams on another good timing route for a 16 yard gainer. No chance for the DB on the delivery.
8:18 - 3rd and 3 @ own 27 - Freeman spins away to avoid the rush, had two guys in his face, quickly eludes them and dumps off with nice touch to Williams for the first down where again only Williams could have gotten it.
8:33 - 3rd and 8 on Ravens 34 - Freeman stands tall in the pocket again and finds Winslow open down the middle for 18 yds and another first down.
8:55 - 2nd and 20 - Now this isn't a 3rd, but it's another example of Freeman throwing off his back foot under pressure and delivering to an open target with nice zip.
9:03 - 3rd and 6 on own 14 - Backs up in the pocket, takes his time and just before the rush can break free and get to him he finds Dezmon Briscoe wide open 33 yards down field. Ends up being an even bigger play of like 45-50 yards.
9:24 - 3rd and 10 from his 46 - Freeman stands tall in the pocket again, the rush comes quick off the edge, but Josh delivers a zinger up high where only Winslow could get it, defender never stood a chance, 25 yard gain and 1st down.
9:32 - 3rd and 7 @ own 20 - Doesn't get a full drop back when he steps up and hits Winslow on a quick out for an 11 yd fist down. Great accurate throw on what is considered one of the tougher passes to make in the NFL.
9:50 - 3rd and 10 @ own 35 - In the pocket he delivers a textbook pass to a semi open Spurlock for solid 19 yard gain.
10:31 - 3rd and 6 @ own 31 - In the pocket he delivers another textbook accurate pass to Winslow on another out route where only Winslow could have got to it, for 15 yds and the first down btw.
10:45 - 3rd and 10 @ own 35 - Pocket collapsing Freeman hits Williams in stride 14 yds down field and Williams was able to take the ball up field for another 6 or 7.
11:05 - He goes all Jesus on us and starts glowing Nova style.
[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNFmF9DcZ1k[/ame]
There are obviously other highlights in that video where I think Freeman is showing very good skills that translate into a winning QB. But I just gave you plenty of examples of skill 3rd and 4th down conversions, and I even consider the two jump balls to Mike Williams far better than a 50/50 luck ball proposition down there. This clip IMO is showing you what I'm talking about, he's accurate, keeping plays alive, keeping his eyes down field and delivering the ball to spots where his guys can get to the ball and the defender can't. Now don't get me wrong, he's not God, and he's most certainly not Peyton Manning, and he still has a lot of development yet, but as far as extending plays and making shit happen on 3rds and 4ths, this is an area that Freeman most certainly excels in.
Now I'm not saying you can't find a similar video on other QB's either, I'm sure you could, butI'm confident in the fact that Freeman is definitely a great QB to have on 3rd downs. I hope I put this to rest, because you couldn't be more wrong in saying his 3rd down success has much to do with luck as it does his ability.