The second one is more likely. It will allow Punk to debut a new belt, and he will still be the champion through the launch of WWE13. He will lose to Rock at Rumble, and then at Wrestlemania Cena will come down with the belt, coming full circle from a year ago and then Rock is finally done with in-ring competition.
Which is another thing, how are they going to have a heel on the cover of the game? Doesn't make sense to me.