The Trade Deadline Thread

[Obst]

There's a sense out there that if phillies sub domonic brown for singleton and include cosart they might land pence. - Jon Heyman

Fuck the Astros, they can keep Pence.

 

[manchild24]

There's a sense out there that if phillies sub domonic brown for singleton and include cosart they might land pence. - Jon Heyman

Fuck the Astros, they can keep Pence.

We doubt the Phillies would be willing to give up Brown, and if that's truly what it will take, they might set their sights on Carlos Quentin or someone else.

I like Quentin better anyway. He's tied up for 5million this year and next. We can boot Ibanez and have Brown out there full time.

 

[FirstTimer]

Good writeup on the prospects from the Fukudome deal yesterday(video's in the link)

2011 Scouting Reports for Abreu, Smith ~ Indians Prospect Insider

Here are the 2011 scouting reports for the two players the Indians traded away in the deal for Kosuke Fukudome on Thursday. These are from my 2011 Indians prospect handbook and were written before the season.

22. Abner Abreu – Outfielder
Born: 10/24/1989 – Height: 6’3” – Weight: 170 – Bats: Right – Throws: Right




Abner Abreu
History: Abreu was signed by the Indians as an undrafted free agent in October 2006 out of the Dominican Republic for $75,000. As a 17-year old in the Dominican Summer League in 2007 he piled up 24 extra base hits in 228 at bats, and in 2008 with the rookie level Gulf Coast League team finished with 31 extra base hits and led the league in doubles (16), home runs (11), total bases (107) and slugging percentage (.538). He separated his shoulder diving for a ball in the outfield in June of 2009 while playing for Low-A Lake County, which resulted in him having surgery and missing the rest of that season.

Strengths: Abreu is an athletic player who has an effortless swing that generates excellent bat speed and combines it with some very good raw power where the ball just explodes off his bat. He is a very aggressive hitter so is prone to strikeouts, but shows an innate ability to square the ball up when he makes contact and crushes balls to all fields and can hit the ball out to any part of any ballpark. His strong hands and wrists help create a natural whip in his swing, and he has a very quick bat on inside pitches that allows him to really drive the ball pull side. The Indians recently made a subtle adjustment to his stance as he was standing too straight up and now have him leaning more forward which has helped him get a better load at the plate.

Abreu is only an average runner, but he plays above his speed on the bases and in the outfield because of his athleticism. He has a loose, wiry frame with very long legs and arms, a build similar to his favorite player Alfonso Soriano. Last offseason he added about 15-20 pounds to his listed weight of 170 pounds, and as he continues to mature physically and grow into his body it could lead to more strength and plus power down the road at the major league level. He is a quiet player, but is very patient, confident and a hard worker. He also speaks good English, which helps him communicate and fit in better with his American teammates.

While Abreu’s offensive performance can be erratic, his defense is very consistent and he is the best defensive corner outfielder in the Indians’ system. He was originally signed as a shortstop and then was moved to third base in 2008, but in 2009 the Indians decided to take advantage of his athleticism and excellent throwing arm by putting him in the outfield because they believed he could be an impact defender there. So far it has been a very positive move as some scouts have compared his defensive ability in right field to that of a young Vladimir Guerrero. He glides to the ball and shows a lot of range moving well to his left and right, and comes in and goes back on balls very well. As he continues to fill out his range may drop a little, but he projects as a well above average defensive outfielder with excellent arm strength and accuracy.

Opportunities: The Indians have worked extensively with Abreu on his approach, mindset and plan at the plate to improve his plate discipline issues. He is often over-aggressive at the plate and gets himself out where he is pulling off pitches and not staying on them like he should be which results in a lot of strikeouts and poorly hit balls. He needs to continue to work on staying within himself and let things come naturally instead of over-swinging and trying to show his incredible raw power. He has a tendency to get too geared up for the fastball, which makes him very susceptible to offspeed pitches. He needs to do a better job of recognizing pitches and show that he can hit offspeed stuff, and his two strike approach needs a lot of work. He needs to work on strengthening his core and the mental side of his game.

The hopes for some improvement with Abreu’s high strikeout rate and low walk rate did not happen last year as his strikeout rate got worse (3.6 AB/K in 2009, 3.1 AB/K in 2010). He also saw significant dips in on-base percentage (.351 in 2009, .298 in 2010) and slugging percentage (.488 in 2009, .362 in 2010). The one hope here is since he was coming off a significant shoulder injury in 2009, maybe with another offseason of rehab and some improved confidence he can get back to his expected performance levels. It can take a player awhile to come back from a serious lead arm shoulder injury and rid himself of any uncertainties and apprehensiveness in order to have full confidence that he can swing without pain and not reinjure it, which is something similar that fellow Tribe farmhand Jared Goedert has gone through recently.

Outlook: Abreu did not live up to his promise last season as he had one of the most disappointing years of any prospect in the Indians’ system. From a power and defensive standpoint, he is still one of the most exciting players in the system, but his struggles at the plate with making consistent contact and avoiding strikeouts is a huge concern and will be the determining factor of what he becomes as a prospect. His ceiling is still unlimited and he has not peaked both physically or mentally, so there is still a lot of time to develop him and harness his impressive collection of tools. He is still a priority prospect for the Indians and the hope is that with a full season under his belt after shoulder surgery in 2009 along with the bad taste his 2010 left in his mouth that he will come back and make some very positive strides in this season. He should open the 2011 season by returning to High-A Kinston, but if he plays well he could move to Double-A Akron by midseason.





88. Carlton Smith - Right-handed Pitcher
Born: 01/23/1986 – Height: 6’2” – Weight: 205 – Bats: Left – Throws: Right


Carlton Smith
History: Smith was selected by the Indians in the 21st round of the 2004 Draft out of Piscataway High School (NJ). He originally committed to Old Dominion University; however, he elected to attend Okaloosa Walton Community College in Florida in order to be eligible to sign with the Indians as a draft and follow in May of 2005. He is also the younger brother of former Indians #1 prospect third baseman Corey Smith.

Strengths: Smith pounds the zone with a 91-93 MPH sinking fastball that has touched 96 MPH, and complements it with a cutter, slider, and splitter. While he gets good life and movement on his fastball, he does not rack up very many strikeouts because of his pitch to contact approach. He works his sinker well to the bottom of the zone which results in a lot of groundball outs. His slider is an above average offering which he consistently throws in the zone. He picked up a cutter at the start of last season and had mixed results with it, and his splitter is a fringe average offering.

Smith is a very durable pitcher, consistent performer, and he goes right after hitters. He has made strides with repeating his delivery, commanding his fastball, and throwing his secondary stuff consistently for strikes. Every year he has shown improved command and a more consistent delivery which in turn has helped the quality of his stuff. He mixes speeds and changes the eye level of his pitches well. He is quiet by nature and keeps to himself, but has an excellent work ethic that was instilled in him by his brother and father.

Opportunities: Smith’s lack of a true put away pitch may have shown itself last year as he struggled to get outs at the Triple-A level. He needs to continue to refine his secondary pitches and keep working on consistently commanding his sinker in order to limit the good swings opposing hitters get on him. Since everything he throws is hard, he may be better off picking up a changeup or another slower offspeed pitch which may help make his mid-90s sinker more effective and more of a strikeout pitch.

Outlook: Even with how hard Smith throws and all the movement he gets on his pitches he has never racked up a lot of strikeouts. His bread and butter has always been his ability to pitch to contact in lieu of strikeouts, and for the most past that plan of attack has worked out well for him. He has proven he can dominate at the Double-A level, but he really struggled last year at Triple-A Columbus allowing almost two base-runners per inning. He is a minor league free agent at the end of the season, and considering there are several bullpen options ahead of him on the Indians’ pecking order for the big league squad, he may not come back. He will likely open the 2011 season in Columbus and pitch there all season unless he is traded or released.





Follow Tony and the Indians Prospect Insider on Twitter @TonyIPI. Also, his latest book the 2011 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More is available for purchase for $20.95 to customers in the US (shipping and handling extra).

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

There's a sense out there that if phillies sub domonic brown for singleton and include cosart they might land pence. - Jon Heyman

Fuck the Astros, they can keep Pence.

These teams are really holding these players over a barrel this year.

 

[FirstTimer]

From the same site as above an Cleveland Indians take on the Fukudome deal:

The Indians on Thursday made what is expected to be their first salvo in the frenzy leading up to the July 31st trade deadline when they acquired outfielder Kosuke Fukudome from the Cubs for minor league prospects outfielder Abner Abreu and right-handed pitcher Carlton Smith. Here are some random thoughts on the deal:

- A lot of people are underwhelmed with the deal, but this is expected to just be a shot across the bow as the Indians are still hot and heavy after several bats and starting pitchers. When the dust settles after 4:00 PM on Sunday, the Indians are expected to have acquired as many as two to four more players. So before we get all upset at the move, let's see what else they do and THEN look at all the moves collectively before we go off the deep end.

- Fukudome is not an impact player by any means, which is why it cost so little to acquire him. But with a team starving for some stability in the outfield, he should provide it. Putting the likes of Travis Buck and Ezequiel Carrera in the outfield every night while Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore are on the shelf has been tough to watch, and Fukudome will be an immediate upgrade over Buck. The upgrade may not be seen in production numbers or batting average, but more in the quality of his at bats, more consistently putting the ball in play, getting on base, and less strikeouts.

- Everyone knows the Indians need a run producing bat, but they also need guys who can get on base too. They just are not doing much of anything on offense, and getting a solid on-base guy like Fukudome should help. Again, he will not be a huge upgrade, but he should be much better than Buck. Would you rather have Buck out there in right field the next month or Fukudome?

- A lot of people have pointed to Fukudome's poor RBI total this year (13), but you have to remember that as a leadoff hitter in the National League you do not get very many RBI opportunities because of the pitcher hitting 9th. As a leadoff hitter in the NL you actually lead off a lot more, something he has done in 125 of his 293 at bats (43%) which have led off an inning. In the few times he has had an opportunity to drive in a run this year and get an RBI he is hitting .311/.516/.467/.983 with runners in scoring position. To get an RBI you have to have opportunities. It is why it is not considered a very useful stat in the scouting world when it comes to evaluating talent and ability.

- If I gave you the 2011 batting line for Player A (.273/.374/.369/.743) and Player B (.275/.330/.385/.715) you would probably say Player A is having the better season, right? Also, if I gave you the career batting line for Player A (.262/.369/.403/.772) and Player B (.269/.321/.358/.679) you would probably say that up to this point Player A has had the better career, right? Well, Player A is Fukudome and Player B is Michael Brantley. Yes, long term there is no doubt that Brantley is the better player, but going strictly on performance and numbers, Fukudome has been as good or better than Brantley not only this year but over their career as well. So Fukudome is not exactly a “bad” player. For $12 million a year, yeah, he was a bad player. For $775K like the Indians will pay him, he is solid.

- With the Indians only needing to pay $775K of the $4.7 million left on Fukudome's deal and him being a free agent at the end of the year, the Indians are not taking on much salary at all. By comparison, had they kept a minimum salary player around like a Travis Buck he would have made about $135K over the same period, so in the end it is costing the Indians about an extra $640K for him.

- There is also some confusion over Fukudome's eligibility for free agency, arbitration, and draft pick compensation. For a player to be eligible for free agency they have to have six years of Major League service time, and at the conclusion of Fukudome's contract this year he will only have four years of service time. Under normal circumstances, he would be a first time eligible arbitration player and not eligible for free agency if the Indians offer arbitration. This, however, is not the case as it was written into the contract he signed with the Cubs that he would be a free agent at the conclusion of his contract and would follow the six year service time rule for free agency and arbitration. What this means is the Indians can offer him arbitration and if he declines and signs elsewhere they would get a draft pick since he is projected to be a Type B free agent. Now, whether or not the Indians would even offer him arbitration or not is another story as he could be costly in arbitration, but the fact remains they can if they choose to and if they do so they do get draft pick compensation.

- I keep hearing about how the Indians need to acquire an impact bat. That's all fine and dandy to wish for, but they have to be available. The only true impact bat available was Carlos Beltran, and the Indians tried to acquire him but they were on his no trade list. After him the only bats available like a Josh Willingham, Ryan Ludwick, Jeff Francoeur, and so on are not impact bats. Some are good and better than others, but none are "impact" quality. Maybe my definition of impact is different from others, but when I think of impact I think of guys like the Adrian Gonzalez's, Ryan Howard's, and Mark Teixeira's of the world. Those are difference makers. The guys available would surely help, but their value and impact are being inflated because of a terrible trade market. The Indians have said they plan to do more, so the potential is still there to add one of those bats still out there that are rumored to be available. It still looks like the Indians may swing something with Ludwick, and even though he is not an impact bat he would surely help (depending on the cost to acquire him).

- The players the Indians gave up, Smith and Abreu, are considered marginal prospects. Neither player really had any big league value to the Indians as both of them were not expected to be any part of the Tribe's future the next two to three years. Also, both were not highly viewed in the scouting community coming into the season and both probably will not be highly valued after it, so unless you are a big Abreu fan there is not much to get upset about in the deal. I admit to being a huge Abreu fan, and am probably one of the few people to rate him highly the past few years, but I think it is a good gamble to take to fill the big league team with a ML bat that can help right now.

- Abreu is the only true prospect given up in the deal as he has a lot to like in that he has very good power, runs well, has a cannon for an arm, and is an excellent defensively outfielder. He has lots of tools and with his age and size he makes for an interesting prospect on those merits alone. However, the big red flag with him has been his plate discipline as he strikes out a ton and is too much of a free swinger. He has recently simplified his approach some to help combat this issue and has been better, but even with the power surge of late the discipline issue is still an underlying problem for him.

- At this point Abreu is what he is with regards to his plate discipline; it just depends on whether or not he can become more consistent as a player. He was coming back from a severe shoulder injury last year which probably affected his numbers, so maybe now that he is healthy he is finally coming into his own. I hope that is the case as I am a huge fan of his on and off the field. Being realistic about it though, he is repeating at the High-A level and the numbers still are not there. I don't expect him to reach the big leagues as eventually the discipline issue will be too tough to overcome as he faces Double-A and Triple-A pitching. Because of his tools he will be given every opportunity to overcome this issue.

- Abreu is up for roster protection this offseason, and it appears the Indians would not have rostered him to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. He is a toolsy player, which is valuable to teams and may have sparked some interest in picking him up in the Rule 5 Draft, but he likely would have remained an Indian because he would have been abused by big league pitching.

- Abreu is still a talent and I am sad to see him go. The tools are still exciting and it would have been nice to see how things played out with him had he remained in the Indians organization, but it was an opportune time to make a move and give up a player that has a lot to overcome before he is ever in the discussion as a big league option.

- As for Carlton Smith, he is a fringe reliever who has been passed over by loads of relievers in the Tribe's system this year and last year. Several scouts I have spoken to over the last two years don't like him at all. He was more pitching inventory than anything for the Indians, and they have several arms from Triple-A Columbus on down to replace him. I think he has the ability to someday get a cup of coffee in the big leagues, but it obviously was not going to happen in Cleveland. He is a minor league free agent at the end of the season, so he may not even be a Cub for long anyway, though he could get a look in September if they really like him that much.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Sounds like Carlton Smith is a bum, but the Abreu kid was worth taking a flier on because he has talent and was once highly regarded.

 

[Goober]

Jon Heyman
word is, #astros dont love #phillies prospects (maybe not even brown). this is becoming real soap opera. #youngandrestless

Ed Wade, you are retarded.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Ed Wade, you are retarded.

Good, Phillies don't even need him.

 

[NAHSTE]

Am I the only one who doesn't see the hype with Dom Brown? I'd trade him for Pence if I'm Philadelphia.

 

[SethMode]

I think that Wade is tired of making the Phillies a better team than they were when he was with them.

 

[Goober]

The reason for that is this: The Phillies initially offered their two best prospects, pitcher Jarred Cosart and first baseman Jonathan Singleton, and were told that wasn't enough. The Phillies then offered to include their right fielder, Domonic Brown. But the Astros, according to one team that spoke with them, would prefer to spin Brown elsewhere for multiple prospects than take him themselves.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings110729/ranking-mlb-trade-chips

 

[Mogriffjr]

Pence would do wonders in that softball field Citizen's bank park. Small sample size but he's over 1.000 OPS there. Short porch, I think he'd post a similar OPS to what he's doing now at home in Houston (around .880 OPS).

 

[Obst]

Our softball field is 15th in homeruns according to MLB Park Factors, Minute Maid is ranked 8th.

 

[Obst]

The Reds are “strongly mulling a sell-a-thon,” according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark.

Sorry Rudi

 

[Goober]

The Reds are “strongly mulling a sell-a-thon,” according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark.

Sorry Rudi

Who would they sell? Cordero? Phillips? Arroyo?

 

[Obst]

Others believe the Indians are a big threat to acquire Jimenez, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com

 

[Rudi]

I don't know what a sell-athon consists of. If that means trading Ramon Hernandez and Coco Cordero then so be it.

 

[NAHSTE]

Our softball field is 15th in homeruns according to MLB Park Factors, Minute Maid is ranked 8th.

Minute Maid is also a softball field.

 

[Cody]

I heard the price on Jimenez is too high, I really don't wanna give up too many prospects. I wish we could have landed Upton instead of Fukeodeme(sp?)

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

The Reds are “strongly mulling a sell-a-thon,” according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark.

Sorry Rudi

Who would they sell? Cordero? Phillips? Arroyo?

I don't know what a sell-athon consists of. If that means trading Ramon Hernandez and Coco Cordero then so be it.

Exactly, this isn't some veteran laden team with a bunch of guys on one year deals, there is nothing to sell.

Ramon Hernandez? Maybe Cordero? That's about it. Anyone else of any worth is cheap, under team control, or have deals nobody would want.