UFC 103: I guess we get to see what the lowest possible buyrate they can do will be..

[Warner2BruceTD]

This is interesting...

102 advance: 10k, $1.8M

103 advance: 12k, $2.1M

Obviously 103 is farther out, too.

It's easy to pick on Nog, but that show is in Randy's hometown, and they probably won't sell out.

 

[Liquidrob]

M-1 tomorrow night is going to put the UFC out of business, breakthrough! I heard the tickets are selling like crazy

 

[Steel Mamba]

The sport isnt in a good position, the UFC is, but MMA is not

If the UFC can't sell more than 200k on that PPV then they're not in a good position either.

 

[Liquidrob]

If the UFC can't sell more than 200k on that PPV then they're not in a good position either.

nah, the UFC is fine, they can make a 500K PPV without even trying, they probably are just testing the Machida drawing power with this one

 

[Steel Mamba]

"Good fights" have never drawn money, and never will.

Personalities sell fights, not fight quality.

I think you're taking that a little too far, but if that is the case then there really aren't very many fight fans and the sport has not grown. You can say there's a lot of fans of the excitement and drama that coincides with certain fights, but if that's all that draws the masses then there aren't a lot of fight fans.

Ultimately, IMO, you have to build and market this sport whereas good fights will almost sell their selves. The UFC is heading down the wrong road if they don't reach that outcome soon.

& I don't want to make it seem like this card is really great or anything, it's not jaw dropping but it is a solid buy right now. To say that this will only do 200k is an insult to all of the talent that's on the card. There’s a top 10 LHW on that card squaring off against one of the top 10 P4P fighters in the world, battling for one of the marquee belts in all of MMA. The card also features a top 10 LW, an exciting and upcoming WW, and two upcoming and exciting HWs, one of which is possibly on the verge of breaking in the top 10 of his class as well. If that's 200k then the UFC is in a really shitty position right now, because you're not always going to have drama and extreme characters, if at the end of the day you can't sell a good fight then you really don't have a true sport on your hands.

But, again I'd be shocked if it did less than 500k. I think there's enough true fight fans out there for this card to pull good numbers without the likes of a Brock Lesnar. If that's not the case then the UFC would really need to reexamine the way they're doing things.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

I think you're taking that a little too far, but if that is the case then there really aren't very many fight fans and the sport has not grown. You can say there's a lot of fans of the excitement and drama that coincides with certain fights, but if that's all that draws the masses then there aren't a lot of fight fans.

Name one fight, ever, that drew simply based on the abililities of the fighters. MMA or boxing.

The answer is zero, because if that was the case, something like Maia vs. Marquardt would be headlining and doing big numbers.

Now, name all of the shitty fights that did big numbers based on name value and personality.

You get the point. It's a star driven business, ability means very very little (IMO, it means nothing).

Ultimately, IMO, you have to build and market this sport whereas good fights will almost sell their selves. The UFC is heading down the wrong road if they don't reach that outcome soon.

& I don't want to make it seem like this card is really great or anything, it's not jaw dropping but it is a solid buy right now. To say that this will only do 200k is an insult to all of the talent that's on the card. There’s a top 10 LHW on that card squaring off against one of the top 10 P4P fighters in the world, battling for one of the marquee belts in all of MMA. The card also features a top 10 LW, an exciting and upcoming WW, and two upcoming and exciting HWs, one of which is possibly on the verge of breaking in the top 10 of his class as well. If that's 200k then the UFC is in a really shitty position right now, because you're not always going to have drama and extreme characters, if at the end of the day you can't sell a good fight then you really don't have a true sport on your hands.

But, again I'd be shocked if it did less than 500k. I think there's enough true fight fans out there for this card to pull good numbers without the likes of a Brock Lesnar. If that's not the case then the UFC would really need to reexamine the way they're doing things.

They just did 1.7 million buys, and followed up with 850 for 101. Saying the sport isnt growing, and that they need to reexamine the way they do things, is flat out silly.

Look, i'm not saying it will be the end of the world if 104 (or 102 or 103) draws badly. But either way, it will establish the drawing power of Machida.

The next three shows will really show the power of 100, and the videogame, if they can do good numbers.

Again, 500k wouldnt surprise me for that lineup--it would shock me. I just cant see it. They would need a really amazing hype special to get Machida v Shogun over to the masses.

200k might be too low the more I think about it, but let me put it this way--500 would shock me much more than 200 would, and I think it will be closer to 200.

 

[Liquidrob]

It has to be a balance of both, you can get away with lack of skill a couple times, but you need skills to keep people coming IMO, I think the UFC does a pretty good job of it for the most part

The guys they hype more than normal have the skills to back it up, even Brock, he is a great athlete and has legit wrestling skills to go with it

Even Tito back in the day, he was way overhyped and they put him in good match ups, but he was still very skilled

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Five years ago, UFC considered breaking 100k buys a raging success.

I guess fight quality has gotten 17 times better since then. Huh.

Also:

-Highest rated network fight of all time, and the most viewed fight of all time: Kimbo vs. James Thomson

-Highest rated basic cable fight of all time: Ken Shamrock vs. Tito Ortiz, the fight the sherdog geeks said "nobody wanted to see"

-Highest rated premium cable fight of all time: Gina Carano vs. Cyborg Santos, #2 is Tank Abbott vs. Kimbo Slice

-Highest PPV buyrate of all time: Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir

-Highest paid attendance, North America: Frank Shamrock vs. Ceaser Gracie

Of those 6 fights, none were expected to be great fights. Most were considered mismatches or freak shows. They all drew based on name value, personality, and in some cases, pro wrestling style build/grudges.

In fact, you could argue that all 6 were expected to be terrible fights, and 3 were expected to be terribly one sided, with 5 ending up that way.

TV exposure creates stars, regardless of skill/ability. The UFC explosion and rapid growth is real, and has almost nothing to do with the ability of the fighters or the quality of the fights.

 

[Steel Mamba]

Name one fight, ever, that drew simply based on the abililities of the fighters. MMA or boxing.

PacMan/Hatton
Cotto/Margarito
DLH/Mosley
Mosley/Vargas
Cotto/Mosley

and a lot more..

The answer is zero, because if that was the case, something like Maia vs. Marquardt would be headlining and doing big numbers.

Now, name all of the shitty fights that did big numbers based on name value and personality.

You get the point. It's a star driven business, ability means very very little (IMO, it means nothing).

If ability means nothing then how are guys like Cotto, PacMan, Mosley, etc doing such good numbers? They sell because they're the best fighters and put on exciting fights. There's really only but a few guys left in boxing who could sell anything based on their personality alone. RJJ, though his #s are starting to dwindle because his talent is as well, Mayweather, and B-Hop. Everyone else is selling because of their ability.

In boxing when you have some of the P4P best squaring off it sells well. To say that the same occurence in MMA could do less than 200k is not a good sign of a solid fanbase at all and would suggest that no, they have not converted many people into fans.

 

[Liquidrob]

You will see it more in MMA than Boxing Steel Mamba, MMA has way to many Pro Wrestling fans and they eat that shit up, the average boxing fan would rather watch a higher skilled fighter than the average MMA fan

They both use the fake hype tactics and the fans love it, but when it comes down to watching or buying a fight the boxing fan cares more about the skill level than Joe MMA fan, the overall the skill level is much higher in boxing than MMA because of the having a good amateur system and better athletes overall

If you had to break it down for reasons fans watch fights, you can use exciting fighters, skill level and the spectacle of it

Boxing Fan:
1. Exciting fighters
2. Skill level
3. The spectacle/hype

MMA Fan:
1. Exciting fighters
2. The spectacle/hype
3. Skill level

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

The "spectacle/hype" factor is much more important than skilled fighters, and it isnt even close.

Mike Tyson was a much better draw after he started biting ears and eating children. He wasnt nearly as good of a fighter, but that didnt matter.

HBO has taken hype to a new level with 24/7, to the point UFC copied it with the Countdown shows

In terms of what draws, my list would look something like this:

1. Engaging personalities/star aura--totally exclusive of skill
2. Spectacle/hype






3. Everything else


A fighters skill can add to his overall charisma and marketablility, but skill alone can not achieve this. The guy with superstar aura, reagrdless of skill, will outdraw the highly skilled but charisma deprived fighter every day of the week. Kimbo Slice didn't teach you guys anything?

Try to tell me skill level of the fighters is an important factor in drawing, when Kimbo vs. Tank pulls a big number, but Jake Shields vs Robbie Lawler does a fraction of that on the same network.

Explain to me why the WEC shows draw next to nothing unless it's Urijah Faber. Those are great fights with great highly skilled fighters. Almost every WEC show is not good, but great. It's because they aren't stars, end of story. If skill and great fights alone could draw, WEC would beblowing everyone else away.

It's all about personalities, it's a star driven business.

 

[Liquidrob]

Boxing has more appreciation for skilled fighters, they still like hype, the spectacle, but p4p fighters always get more praise and poeple watching over MMA fighters who are skilled, the technical aspect of ground fighting is not even appreciatated by MMA fans and its what made the sport different

The boxing fan base doesnt go as crazy for the hype as the MMA fan, of course they still like it, but not to the point of the MMA fan and its mostly because of the cross over Pro Wrestling fan driving it

Also, the 24/7 show has a lot about the training, the coaches, etc...

Hype is fine, the spectacle is fine, but boxing is more structured arond skill level, even with Tyson people will still hoping the 'old' tyson would come back, he went to greatness because of his skill level and dominance

 

[Steel Mamba]

The "spectacle/hype" factor is much more important than skilled fighters, and it isnt even close.

Mike Tyson was a much better draw after he started biting ears and eating children. He wasnt nearly as good of a fighter, but that didnt matter.

HBO has taken hype to a new level with 24/7, to the point UFC copied it with the Countdown shows

In terms of what draws, my list would look something like this:

1. Engaging personalities/star aura--totally exclusive of skill
2. Spectacle/hype






3. Everything else


A fighters skill can add to his overall charisma and marketablility, but skill alone can not achieve this. The guy with superstar aura, reagrdless of skill, will outdraw the highly skilled but charisma deprived fighter every day of the week. Kimbo Slice didn't teach you guys anything?

Try to tell me skill level of the fighters is an important factor in drawing, when Kimbo vs. Tank pulls a big number, but Jake Shields vs Robbie Lawler does a fraction of that on the same network.

Explain to me why the WEC shows draw next to nothing unless it's Urijah Faber. Those are great fights with great highly skilled fighters. Almost every WEC show is not good, but great. It's because they aren't stars, end of story. If skill and great fights alone could draw, WEC would beblowing everyone else away.

It's all about personalities, it's a star driven business.

24/7 is a great show and not a spectacle/BS unless Floyd Mayweather is on it, other than that it's a good documentary used to market the fight. Let’s not confuse marketing with spectacle.

But, yeah there’s no doubt about it having someone with some personality or a feud is definitely going to add to the appeal of the fight for casual and hardcore fans alike. It helps bring in more $, but my point is there’s a problem when that’s all that you’re capable of doing big sales off of. I already pointed out that it’s not that way in boxing, and shouldn’t be that way for MMA either.

Look at it like this, take the PacMan/Hatton fight for an example. I think that fight is probably most comparable to the Machida/Shogun matchup. Both PacMan and Machida are in the top 3 or 4 P4P talks for their sport, yet neither is really a house hold name or posses the biggest star power in the sport. Neither is outlandish like a Mayweather or Brock Lesnar. Hatton is an exciting fighter who was looking to rebound, still talented and one of the best at his class at the time. About the same could be said for Shogun as well. Now the PacMan/Hatton fight did 900k+ buys in America alone and you’re telling me that if Machida/Shogun did 200k then the UFC shouldn’t reexamine the way they’re doing business? That wouldn’t register as a problem, or at least something that needs to be fixed?

I agree with Rob’s assessment on what draws in MMA vs boxing, but I’m hoping those differences aren’t made so obvious by this card doing only 200k buys. I’m still expecting around 4-500k personally.

 

[Warner2BruceTD]

Ricky Hatton & PacMan are far bigger names than Machida and Shogun. Particularly PacMan in the hispanic community. That fight drew because of star power, not because the fighters were highly skilled.

And no, the UFC has no reason to reexamine the way they do business if Machida dosen't draw, because they have plenty of stars that do. They have been trying to get the public to buy into Anderson Silva for years now, and despite his amazing level of dominance, he still isnt a good draw. It's not a problem, because they can slap together a dozen other fights that will.

This idea that boxing fans are somehow more refined as fans, and respond to skill better than MMA fans, is also off base. Instead of listing boxing matches that did draw (all based on star power, btw) list the ones that have bombed, featuring highly skilled guys with no charisma. The list would be much longer.

In fact, I think it's the opposite. I think MMA fans are much more loyal to the product than boxing fans. Boxing has less than a half dozen guys who are real draws. Live gate, PPV, or TV. None of which are heavyweights. MMA has multiple draw in each weight class, including women.

UFC has done a much, much better job of getting the talent over to the public than boxing has. Boxing's biggest problem is theycant create new stars. If skill = star in boxing, are you telling me boxing is all of a sudden lacking highly skilled fighters? BS. Boxing is lacking star power, and its star power that draws. Boxing has a far deeper talent pool than the UFC, so if this garbage theory that skill = buys was correct, boxing would be kicking the shit out of Dana. Explain to me why the oppposite is occuring?

 

[Steel Mamba]

I think you have to follow both sports to really see the big picture here, maybe you do, and if so I'm shocked that you're trying to sell their HW division right now. There is not a single HW boxer today that would stand a chance against any of the former HW stars in their prime, the talent in that division has dropped off dramatically and their best guy is usally a bore to watch.

Hatton does not have a lot of star power in the states and while PacMan has always been respected as a good fighter no one really put him at the top until now. His level of dominance in the ring has coincided with his draw power. If its his star power why wasn't he doing numbers like this just 2 to 3 years ago?

So, exactly how is the two top MMA fighters in the world not being a draw not a problem? Lol, doesn't that just prove my point. Look throughout boxings history and you'll see that any top p4p fighter drew, its as simple as that. Its very true that boxing isn't what it used to be both in terms of talent and support, but in its hayday they could still sell a good fight based on the level of talent alone and for the most part the fanbase still responds accordingly today even.

With boxing you become a star when you prove to the world that you're a highly skilled fighter and again PacMan is a perfect example of that. You can also look at Pavlik too, he became a draw when he cemented himself as a true champion, then he gets demolished by b-hop and he's no longer the draw that he used to be. In boxing skill level typically will coincide perfectly with draw power, maybe too much so. Top fighters just aren't expected to lose or have a bad outing for whatever reason. So once you suffer a tough loss your draw power will diminish tremendously. That tells the story right there, also look at DLH tuneup match that was suppose to get him ready for his 2nd fight with Floyd. That fight garnered no attention at all because it was a meaningless and terrible matchup and we're talking about one of the biggest stars in boxing - if it was all about star power in boxing then more people would have tuned in for that. Now you throw Kimbo in the cage against anyone and the mma scene is glued to their tv screens. If that doesn't signify a difference I don't know what will.

 

[Liquidrob]

I dont know if we are really argueing the same things with W2B

Boxings biggest fights are rooted in skill, you cant say the same for MMA, you cant sell a big time boxing match without having great skill level, it just doesnt work, you can bring up Tyson in the past, but before that it was all about excitment and dominance and people were hoping to see just a glimpse of it again

Here is a good example to prove the differences, the biggest fight right now you can make in boxing is PBF vs Pacman, 2 of the top if not 2 top p4p fighters in the sport, in MMA the biggest fight you can make is Brock vs Kimbo Slice, its not even Brock vs Fedor and I bet Brock vs Lashley would do better than Brock/Fedor, you cant get away with that in boxing

Boxing cant create new stars at the pace of the UFC because of lack of a basic or cable channel that will show good fights, back when boxing was on ABC on the weekends, etc...boxing was able to create stars, plus boxing is losing the young fan, UFC is on Spike, has guys jerking off on Sushi on a reality show, etc...

I dont agree with Mamba that the UFC needs to change there business, but MMA is still somewhat new, it takes time for the skill level to rise overall

 

[Steel Mamba]

I dont agree with Mamba that the UFC needs to change there business, but MMA is still somewhat new, it takes time for the skill level to rise overall

I'm only saying that the UFC needs to change their business if this PPV does 200k buys. Their model and fanbase will work for them if these type of PPVs can at least post respectable numbers, if not then yeah some things need to change.