Where Does AP End Up Among The All-Time Leading Rushers?

[jms493]

My only doubt is not with AP but with the Vikings as a team...if they continue suck nuts it wont help Peterson much in the long run.

 

[Hasselbeck]

4 years is a LONG time for an NFL running back.

In 4 seasons, Tomlinson went from best back in the league to out of the NFL and he had under 2000 yards in that 4-ish year span. AD is at a period in his career where its tough to really predict. I mean...1300+ yards in his age 32 season? The chances of that are very slim.

I disagree, I think AD is hitting the prime of his career.. I'd be shocked if he didn't have over 3000 yards in the next two seasons. That puts him much closer to the Top 5.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

I disagree, I think AD is hitting the prime of his career.. I'd be shocked if he didn't have over 3000 yards in the next two seasons. That puts him much closer to the Top 5.

I have no doubts of AD being a monster in his age 28 and age 29 season.

Its when he hits the age of 30 that I think many of you underrate the steep drop off 99% of running backs see when they hit that age. Even the greatest runners of all-time hit that wall. Even a player that many have consistently compared Peterson to, Eric Dickerson. Over 8000 yards by the end of his age 27 season (like Peterson). 2970 yards between his age 28 and 29 seasons. A little over 2000 combined in his last four seasons. Finished his career sitting in the 13000's.

 

[Primetime]

My only doubt is not with AP but with the Vikings as a team...if they continue suck nuts it wont help Peterson much in the long run.

:dog:

They made the playoffs last year.

 

[Hasselbeck]

I have no doubts of AD being a monster in his age 28 and age 29 season.

Its when he hits the age of 30 that I think many of you underrate the steep drop off 99% of running backs see when they hit that age. Even the greatest runners of all-time hit that wall. Even a player that many have consistently compared Peterson to, Eric Dickerson. Over 8000 yards by the end of his age 27 season (like Peterson). 2970 yards between his age 28 and 29 seasons. A little over 2000 combined in his last four seasons. Finished his career sitting in the 13000's.

He's such an athletic freak though I don't foresee the drop off being as severe as it normally is. Don't get me wrong, there will be a drop off.. I just don't think it's going to be like Shaun Alexander/Edgerrin James .. and more like Curtis Martin/Thomas Jones who were still damn good RB's even at age 31 and 32.

Again a big reason why I see AD cracking the Top 5 is I think his next 3 years will be great and then he can hover around the league in a platoon role.

 

[LiquidLarry2GhostWF]

You do realize Curtis Martin retired at 32, and fell off at 31, right?

There aren't too many runners you can point to that had strong careers post 30 years old. Especially ones that get heavy workloads in their 20's. Thomas Jones, too, fell off at 31 and he didn't get going until he was 27...he barely played for the Cardinals.

There have been a ton of athletic freaks at running back and all have fallen off or failed to produce when they got to age 31 and the end was nigh soon after. Peterson, like so many other great runningbacks, I see falling off shortly after that age 30 season.

 

[JeremyHight]

I will never predict a running back to get better the longer he is in the league. Sadly, once they plateau, they drop off dramatically. I like AP, but to say he isn't going to degrade when we see it every year I the NFL is a little silly.

 

[JBregz]

Warrick Dunn rushed for over 1000 yards in his 30 and 31 seasons, he was also only 180 pounds. Franco Harris ran for over 1000 yards if I'm correct at the age of 32. Tiki Barber had arguably his best seasons at the age of 30 and 31. John Riggins had good seasons at the age of 34 and 35. Sanders also ended his career short after posting 1400 yards that year, who knows what he could have done if he continued. My point is, Adrian Peterson has all the skill and durability to last just as long, if not longer than these guys. Let's just say he posts 2 consecutive 1500 yard seasons putting him at the age of 30. Followed by another 2 1200 seasons by the age of 32. Even if he stays in the league for another 3 seasons and puts up a modest 800 yards each season. This will put his totals at roughly 16600 which is very doable for AP in my opinion. He'll get close to Barry Sanders, it'll be a matter of what he does from the ages of 32-35 in my opinion that puts him as the all time leader or not.

 

[shag773]

You do realize Curtis Martin retired at 32, and fell off at 31, right?

He didn't fall off at 31. Martin led the league in rushing (1671 yds) and attempts (371) at that year. Also scored 12 TDs. Not saying Peterson has a shot in hell of hitting those numbers post 30. He runs too upright and physically to expect those kind of numbers in his 30s.

He ends up somewhere between Dorsett and Dickerson.

 

[JBregz]

I don't understand why being a physical runner means he will have a shortened career? Emmitt Smith lasted as long as he did because he was a strong back. He was the best 2nd effort runners the NFL has ever seen (with the exception of AP). It's simple quantitative physics that prove that the more force you can generate into an incoming object, the more your body will absorb the force coming onto you and send those forces to the opposing objects. You think when AP demolished Al Harris that hurt him? The fact that he lowers his shoulders uses stiff arms and runss over people at such a hard force is actually better for his longevity rather than being a scatback like Chris Johnson or Jamaal Charles. The variable is just how durable AP is and the amount of carries he takes. I'm sold on the fact he's got the longevity to make it to 34-35 like Emmitt did.

NFL rules protect the players more now than ever and advancements in equipment are better than ever. Hell, the medical field is light years past what it was 20 years ago.

 

[ThunderHorse]

Edgerrin James is a poor example but I see where you were trying to go with it.

I'm nitpicking, because of these nice blue tinted goggles I'm unable to remove, but The Edge stopped being "The Edge" after fucking his knee up in that 3rd season (In which he was on pace to win the rushing title again, 3 years in a row).

Going to Arizona and not playing with Manning kind of exposed what was really left of James (A shell). In addition to that he never recovered from his Knee injury like Peterson did. It had a psychological effect on how he played.