Blockbuster deal in works? BOS/LAD

[Glenbino]

I can't wait to play as the Dodgers on MLB The Show. :fap:

Especially after the season when the 25-man roster is injury free. Victorino vs. Crawford? #LargeMarketProblems

Victorino is a FA after this season.

 

[Goober]

Also the Gonzalez's team friendly contract (compared to Fielder, Pujols, Votto) really helps justify the deal. Savings there help offset the risk of Crawfords contract. The Dodgers are paying these guys 260 million total, I think it's safe to bet the four of them combined will out produce Pujols (240 million) or Fielder (214 million) over the length of the expected deals.

Some people argue that they should have waited for free agency, but they get more value by taking on these contracts that are a few years old, then go after free agents considering the rapid inflation in the FA market. Plus you can't deny the value of adding these players in August when they are in a tight division race.

 

[Villain]

How do the Dodgers keep making deals without having to give up Zach Lee.

:smug: Chris Reed didn't go either. Out of the top 3 minor league arms, I rank them Lee, Reed, Webster (counting Rubby as a big leaguer). Lee wasn't even ranked higher than 50 out of the top prospects in MLB this winter, and he's probably the prospect with the highest floor (at least a number 4 or 5 starter, maybe a 2 at his best). That just amazes me further with the Dodgers' trades this year. All these trades while giving up hardly anything out of the system - which is exactly what they wanted to do. Take on money in the interest of not punting the farm.

Mark White, the Dodgers' real owner, said something like "I'd rather overpay to field a competitive team now, than be leery of spending money now and be mediocre." I think that falls into line with Stan Kasten's mission of "Buy bats, grow arms." Ownership is doing all the right things to put together a solid team. It's up to the players now to deliver.

I'm fucking stoked.

#WhatAShittyFranchise

 

[Villain]

Victorino is a FA after this season.

He'll still be on the team's roster on The Show '12.

 

[MVPete]

 

[ThomasTomasz]

I don't understand how people like this for Boston. Yes they took a ton of money off the books, but Cherington took a team that was a WS favorite, and ended up one game out of the playoffs and turned it to absolute shit. Not all the blame is his, but he certainly hasn't made any good moves.

Crawford is a huge unknown, but the other three players, are well worth the contracts they've signed. Cherington has torn the team apart, and is postponing any chance of winning in that division for the next 3+ years. Effectively wasting the rest of Ortiz's career, and the prime of Pedroia and Ellsburys'.

He has, but the issues ran pretty deep. It wasn't just one game out of the playoffs, it was a huge September collapse where it seemed multiple people didn't care Lets also remember that Bobby V was a controversial hire as well, and he probably will get fired this off-season.

Josh Beckett seemed to be a leader of sorts from the pitching end. He and Bucholz would be in the clubhouse during games doing their thing, not supporting their teammates at all. You also have to realize Beckett is getting older, and they are saving some money here, especially if they choose to invest it in someone like Greinke this off-season I imagine Bucholz will be the next to go as well, even if the Sox have to pay his salary to do so in the off-season.

Also, Ortiz is probably done as well with Boston. They will let another team take him on, and he's gone from leader to headache it seems over the past year and a half for Boston.

Adrian Gonzalez had to be moved to get the Crawford deal done, but from all I've heard from reports, Gonzalez was a neutral person at best in the clubhouse. Possibly the best first baseman in baseball currently, but the Sox needed him to be a leader. We all know about Crawford, it was a terrible signing then and even moreso now, but you've got to give something to get something (in this case, get rid of something.)

I see Boston trying to build an actual team this time around, and look for players that are going to be positive influences. That will certainly take time, and it will definitely need to be built around Pedrioa and Ellsbury. They are going to re-sign Ellsbury with the money they freed up, and time will tell how they spend it elsewhere.

 

[Lanteri]

I don't understand how people like this for Boston. Yes they took a ton of money off the books, but Cherington took a team that was a WS favorite, and ended up one game out of the playoffs and turned it to absolute shit. Not all the blame is his, but he certainly hasn't made any good moves.

Crawford is a huge unknown, but the other three players, are well worth the contracts they've signed. Cherington has torn the team apart, and is postponing any chance of winning in that division for the next 3+ years. Effectively wasting the rest of Ortiz's career, and the prime of Pedroia and Ellsburys'.

In what kind of fucked up fantasy world are you living in where the Red Sox roster as constructed was a WS favorite?

 

[MVPete]

In what kind of fucked up fantasy world are you living in where the Red Sox roster as constructed was a WS favorite?

 

[Goober]

Already forgot 2011? I think it's hilarious that only members of the pink hat nation think this was a good move. Homer much?

 

[Villain]

Josh Beckett seemed to be a leader of sorts from the pitching end. He and Bucholz would be in the clubhouse during games doing their thing, not supporting their teammates at all.

Good luck pulling that one with Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, and Shane Victorino on the roster. Pulling shit like that will fly about as far as a brick. Same goes for the Dodgers' coaching staff (Hillman, Mattingly, Lopes, etc). Dudes will call you out immediately. Even Magic Johnson is one to get in there and flex his muscles, if need be (alluded to as much in press conferences).

Victorino's first Sunday home game as a Dodger, he bumped into James Loney arriving at the ballpark about an hour before the game, looked at his watch and said "You motherfuckers need to start getting here earlier." /truestory.

 

[MVPete]

Already forgot 2011? I think it's hilarious that only members of the pink hat nation think this was a good move. Homer much?

In Lan's defense he's really level headed, and rips their players with the rest of us. He misses out on parts of the games because he will rage and turn the TV off occasionally :irked:.

 

[Lanteri]

Already forgot 2011? I think it's hilarious that only members of the pink hat nation think this was a good move. Homer much?

And, you know, pretty much everyone that matters thinks it was the right thing to do. The Beckett and Crawford contracts are total abominations. You do what you have to, to get rid of them. Shedding $290m in salary is in no way, shape, or form a bad move. And this is hardly Cherington's mess. This is Cherington cleaning up Theo's mess. Last I checked it wasn't Cherington that gave Crawford that behemoth of a contract, giving Beckett a fat extension the day after he shit the bed on opening day a season or two ago, gave J.D. Drew, John Lackey, etc. shit contracts. The only quality move Theo's made in the last, oh I don't know, 3-4 years was acquiring Gonzalez, and the ensuing contract. Surely, it doesn't excuse him from every other shitbum move he ever made.

You'd have to be far outside your mind as well, which we all know you are so I guess the story checks out, to think this Red Sox team was anywhere near a world series contender. They were barely a playoff contender coming into this season, much less world series. Okay, so they were one game from the playoffs last year? Sorry, but that meant jack shit for 2012. The team last year was stronger than the team this year. The team this year, even prior to the barrage of injuries, was a 3rd place team in the AL East at best, and was aging and certainly not going to be getting any better anytime soon. Meanwhile, the rest of the AL East continues to improve. It makes absolutely no sense to try and patchwork something together right now, and this is absolutely the right time, if ever, to blow it up.

edit: And, no, this isn't a reactionary response to how the season went. Check any of my posts, tweets, whatever, I've been harping at how poorly this team's been constructed from day one. Certainly not revisionist history whatsoever.

 

[Len B]

Pay no mind to Gooby, easily his WAR in baseball posting is below average.

 

[Goober]

And, you know, pretty much everyone that matters thinks it was the right thing to do. The Beckett and Crawford contracts are total abominations. You do what you have to, to get rid of them. Shedding $290m in salary is in no way, shape, or form a bad move. And this is hardly Cherington's mess. This is Cherington cleaning up Theo's mess. Last I checked it wasn't Cherington that gave Crawford that behemoth of a contract, giving Beckett a fat extension the day after he shit the bed on opening day a season or two ago, gave J.D. Drew, John Lackey, etc. shit contracts. The only quality move Theo's made in the last, oh I don't know, 3-4 years was acquiring Gonzalez, and the ensuing contract. Surely, it doesn't excuse him from every other shitbum move he ever made.

You'd have to be far outside your mind as well, which we all know you are so I guess the story checks out, to think this Red Sox team was anywhere near a world series contender. They were barely a playoff contender coming into this season, much less world series. Okay, so they were one game from the playoffs last year? Sorry, but that meant jack shit for 2012. The team last year was stronger than the team this year. The team this year, even prior to the barrage of injuries, was a 3rd place team in the AL East at best, and was aging and certainly not going to be getting any better anytime soon. Meanwhile, the rest of the AL East continues to improve. It makes absolutely no sense to try and patchwork something together right now, and this is absolutely the right time, if ever, to blow it up.

edit: And, no, this isn't a reactionary response to how the season went. Check any of my posts, tweets, whatever, I've been harping at how poorly this team's been constructed from day one. Certainly not revisionist history whatsoever.

Again the Red Sox were World Series favorites last year. That looked like a pretty good prediction for most of the season until September hit. What has changed since then? Cherington had a terrible season and made the team worse, we seem to agree there. Were they still a playoff contender coming into this season? I guess that depends on just how bad of an offseason you think they had. Were they a playoff contender a week ago? No I never tried to argue that. Obviously with the amount of injuries they had and the fucked up coaching situation this year was shot. Could they have contended next year? Certainly.

However the Red Sox have jumped the ship and booted the idea of contending in 2013, now they have a nice long rebuild in front of them. All because they decided to overreact to one bad injury filled season. Most of their players are in their prime, there's no reason to give up on everything just because of a bad year. Over reaction at its finest. But I'm glad we're in agreement that Cherington is a shit GM.

As for the "mess" that Theo left him, I think you're overreacting. The Beckett deal isn't nearly as bad as you are making it out to be. It certainly isn't as bad as most deals that pay declining veterans for past performance. At 68 million, they paid him for about 13 War over the course of four seasons. Just under half way through the deal, Beckett has been worth 6.1 wins, right on pace to earn every penny. Yes the Lackey deal was bad. The Crawford deal looks bad, but hey I certainly don't remember this kind of reaction when he signed two years ago. Does Theo really deserve all the blame for signing a player who had been perfectly healthy, only for that player to immediately suffer multiple injuries? Again, I think the Red Sox gave up on Crawford way to soon.

Instead of thanking Cherington for deciding to rebuild. You need to question him for letting the team get into the situation in the first place. Theo left the team a World Series favorite, and one game out of the playoffs. A year latter they're rebuilding? Seems odd, the Red Sox didn't fall apart because everyone got old like the Phillies did. They're having a bad year because of injuries (better luck next year!) and Cherington's terrible offseason moves. He traded all of the teams tradeable assets for shitty relief pitching that has contributed absolutely nothing, while ignoring the lack of depth in the starting pitching department, something that hurt the team in 2011.

 

[Slateman]

Last year Goob. Last year. This year they've been a disaster. Beckett was a cancer. Crawford was never going to live up to the hype (and I'm still trying to figure out why the Sox needed a LF who's best asset was defense). AGonz was one of the ones asking ownership to get rid of Bobby V.

Getting rid of Beckett and the Crawford contract is worth it. Adrian Gonzalez is a huge loss, but ultimately worth it. He's 30 and probably won't have too many more productive years. The Dodgers are on the hook for almost 150 million between only 9 players next year.

 

[Goober]

Last year Goob. Last year. This year they've been a disaster. Beckett was a cancer. Crawford was never going to live up to the hype (and I'm still trying to figure out why the Sox needed a LF who's best asset was defense). AGonz was one of the ones asking ownership to get rid of Bobby V.

Getting rid of Beckett and the Crawford contract is worth it. Adrian Gonzalez is a huge loss, but ultimately worth it. He's 30 and probably won't have too many more productive years. The Dodgers are on the hook for almost 150 million between only 9 players next year.

Did you even read my post? Again overreaction to one bad year. When was the last time a team got rid of the players, not the manager? Beckett contract isn't a bad deal.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Did you even read my post? Again overreaction to one bad year. When was the last time a team got rid of the players, not the manager? Beckett contract isn't a bad deal.

When you are about ready to go through two managers in two years, that logic goes out the door. You also underestimate the amount of money they now have to do whatever they want with it. That could be 3-4 players just this off-season.

And last year is a terrible example for you to use in defense of keeping that team together. The lack of leadership from many at the top lead to that collapse, and ultimately led to this.

 

[Slateman]

Awful season + over 30 + clubhouse cancer + due over 45 million in the next 3 years = bad deal. It was obvious to everyone, even Beckett, that he needed to go.


With the money they just got off the books, they can sign Ellsbury to a long term deal, go after starting pitching hard, and still have enough to sign a position player. Oh and they got some decent prospects out of it. They now have a top 5 farm system.

 

[Chrispy]

Keith Law

 

The Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers pulled off an enormous trade that featuresAdrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford heading to Los Angeles. The Red Sox got a pair of high-ceiling arms in exchange as well as two useful spare parts, which, considering how much salary they just cleared, is a very strong return.

It's a bold move, considering how much major league talent they're sending to L.A., and the potential for one of Beckett and/or Crawford to bounce back after the deal, but, frankly, it was way too good for the team to pass up. It looks as if Larry Lucchino overreacted to some bad publicity but GM Ben Cherington and his group rode in to restructure this into a very sound baseball deal.

Rubby de la Rosa blew up as a prospect before blowing out entirely back in 2011, but he's back from Tommy John surgery and, by 2013, should be able to pick up where he left off when his elbow snapped. He has touched 100 mph as a starter and sits comfortably in the mid-to-upper 90s, offsetting it with an above-average changeup with good fading action in the mid-80s, and, before the surgery, could throw both pitches for strikes. His slider is hard but really short, 82-86, but it doesn't have a lot of tilt to it because he tends to get on top of the pitch, often coming out higher than he does on his fastball; his curveball, a pitch he seldom throws, is in the mid-70s, breaking down but without tight rotation.

Even an average slider would give him No. 1 or No. 2 starter potential, and I think he can get there if he can release it from a slightly lower spot, closer to where he releases the fastball. It's a huge arm in any role, and, as long as he's healthy, he should be able to start.

Allen Webster was primarily a shortstop in high school, but the Dodgers drafted him as a pitcher and he has shown two plus pitches as a minor league starter, a fastball with great downhill plane at 90-94, touching 98, and an out pitch changeup with great deception. The sink on the fastball has allowed him to generate high ground-ball rates; repeating the Southern League this year, he has allowed just one homer in 121 innings so far.

His lack of an average to above-average breaking ball remains his biggest issue -- he has a power slider and a fringy curveball, but neither is as good as the changeup -- and his fastball command hasn't come along as expected, even though he's a good athlete with a repeatable delivery. He has a wide range of possible outcomes; he could be an above-average starter if he throws more strikes and/or the breaking ball improves, and he could end up a pretty good reliever if none of that happens.

Jerry Sands doesn't profile as an every-day player for me but could have value in a part-time role. He has average-at-best bat speed with a lot of rotation, meaning he has big raw power but struggles to get to it in games because he's not making enough quality contact. He stands well off the plate, so his plate coverage away isn't good, and his recognition of off-speed stuff is poor. He's also a below-average defender in left and couldn't handle third base in a brief trial there, so first base is probably his only option. He could be a bench or platoon bat against left-handed pitching, but I don't see an average regular here.

Ivan De Jesus has potential as a utility infielder who can handle shortstop on an interim basis and had a history of getting on base before he reached Triple-A Albuquerque, but he has some drift at the plate and is short enough to the ball that he's not likely to hit for any power. When seeing him in the Arizona Fall League during his two tours of duty, I noticed a lack of energy that stood out in a league where most of the players play hard.

James Loney has hit .278 AVG/.336 OBP/.402 SLG in nearly 2,900 at-bats since the start of 2008 while playing above-average defense at first. That's not a player worth the $6 million he's earning this year, to say nothing of the raise he'll earn in arbitration if the Red Sox tender him a contract in December.

The Dodgers are taking on an enormous amount of salary here, although only Crawford's deal looks like dead money at this point; two years and $31.5 million for Beckett is an overpayment, but it's not an awful deal and is one he could come somewhat close to justifying.

The real issue for the Dodgers is that they took on Crawford's deal and whatever amount of Beckett's deal you want to call the excess or overpayment just to acquire the age 31-36 seasons of Gonzalez, who already will be paid a shade more than $21 million for each of those seasons -- and they gave up two good pitching prospects and two other minor leaguers in the process. It is beyond unlikely that the Dodgers will see sufficient return from these players to justify the quarter of a billion dollars those players will be paid across the next six seasons. If the team wins the World Series this year, does that justify the cost going forward, and the potential roster jam it'll face once everyone is healthy again?

Gonzalez was his usual self in 2011 but has fallen off in 2012, particularly in his patience and thus his OBP, along with a power outage in the first half of the season. He's been on a good run since the All-Star break, though, hitting .338/.378/.593, albeit in a small sample and with just five unintentional walks in more than 150 PAs; it's possible the Dodgers scouted him more in the last month and saw the return of his power, motivating them to try to make the deal. He's seeing more off-speed stuff early in counts this year and has become more aggressive in response, so he's seeing fewer pitches in total and has watched his walk total drop. (His OBPs in San Diego were always boosted by large intentional walk totals; he has drawn more than 60 unintentional walks in a season only once, in 2009.)

The good news for the Dodgers is that his bat speed is intact and he remains a plus-plus defender at first base, so even a pessimistic outlook would give him several years of high batting averages and home run totals even if his OBP settles in the .340-.360 range. That's a valuable player and a huge upgrade over what they've gotten from Loney, so acquiring him makes a ton of sense in the abstract.

Acquiring Gonzalez doesn't come down just to money or prospects, however; the Dodgers are taking on two bad contracts in the process. Beckett's lost season comes down to three main problems: some lost velocity, poor pitch selection and horrific pitching from the stretch. He has lost a mile and a half off his average fastball this year versus 2011, a year that was already down from his peak fastball a few years earlier, which is likely the effect of age and regular usage over the years but doesn't in and of itself have to be fatal. (It does show he's not a good candidate for a multiyear extension.)

He gives up way too many hits on his cutter, which has proved less effective than the straight changeup that was previously his worst pitch (because it looked like a BP fastball compared with his four-seamer). He's been nearly 300 points of opponents' OPS worse with men on base this year, and, although that's often just bad luck or randomness, in Beckett's case it's more because his fastball is softer from the stretch and because he relies too much on that flat cutter in those situations.

Crawford just had Tommy John surgery, and, even when healthy, probably needs a right-handed platoon partner -- which, unfortunately for the Dodgers, also can be said of Andre Ethier, meaning they will now have two corner outfielders signed for the next five years who can't hit lefties. In the era of seven- and eight-man bullpens, that's an unworkable way to build a roster and probably guarantees Ethier will get 100 or so PAs per year against southpaws that would be better given to a right-handed three-toed sloth. Little Nicky Punto serves no purpose other than providing fodder for those of us who like to extract humor from the fact that he serves no purpose.

This deal could end up looking good for both sides, better for the Dodgers in the very short term but much better for the Red Sox in the long term. Boston enters this winter with a new financial lease on life, freeing the Sox up to spend in a weak free-agent market or perhaps to take on a large contract someone else would like to move (Cliff Lee? Justin Upton?).
They're also looking at a pretty interesting group of position-player prospects racing up the system, led by Xander Bogaerts, who has improved his defense at shortstop this year and might defy earlier expectations and stay at the position. That potential for an inexpensive core should help Boston avoid a similar tangle of large contracts in the near future, just at a point when the Dodgers are facing a financial quagmire and roster crunch of their own.

 

[Goober]

Awful season + over 30 + clubhouse cancer + due over 45 million in the next 3 years = bad deal. It was obvious to everyone, even Beckett, that he needed to go.

Check your facts. Beckett is making 17 million a year. Your salary estimate is 10 million off. I don't buy the clubhouse cancer bull shit. Plenty of teams have won in the past without a great clubhouse atmosphere. That's an excuse. The Red Sox are overreacting to one bad injury plagued year which is borderline retarded. Beckett will be fine, especially moving to the NL West and that ballpark.

With the money they just got off the books, they can sign Ellsbury to a long term deal, go after starting pitching hard, and still have enough to sign a position player.

So the Red Sox plan is to trade some bad contracts so they can make some more bad contracts? It's idiotic to repeat the same mistake, and even worse considering the salary inflation that has happened over the last few years. The Red Sox won't be able to get the same value on the open market that they just traded away for the same amount of money. There's no way.

They now have a top 5 farm system.

No. LOL.