Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)
Kansas City may not make the playoffs in 2009, but it takes a significant leap forward from a 2-14 season. The triumvirate of Scott Pioli, Todd Haley and Matt Cassel has a ways to go, but is making the right moves. The Chiefs average 19.7 points per game (#24) and allow 23.0 points (#17) against a schedule featuring six games against 2008 playoff teams.
Absolute Record: 6-10
Most Significant Newcomer: Matt Cassel, QB - With four years of NFL experience and coming off a very efficient system with the Patriots, Cassel may sound like a safe option for the Kansas City Chiefs who are looking to rebuild under new management and a new coaching staff. That's not necessarily the case. Cassel has only started at quarterback in 15 games since high school and has only played in the Patriots system with a veteran offensive line and great weapons like Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Cassel should actually be viewed more as a boom or bust prospect with about equal likelihood of either. As opposed to managing the game, Cassel will be called upon to make plays for head coach Todd Haley's offense. The Chiefs lack weapons in the passing game and do not have a great pass-protecting line. If we based our projections simply off of Cassel's numbers with the Patriots, without adjusting for the talent around him (then or now) or his limited experience, the Chiefs could be in serious playoff contention in this very weak division. We have to assume some drop-off in production and ultimately have him completing 59.2% of his passes for 2,968 yards, 17 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Given the disparity between offenses, it could be worse.
Biggest Strength: Scott Pioli, GM - We should find out rather quickly just how much Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli meant to each other in New England. I am a believer in Pioli for the simple reason that his resume includes the Patriots' success, which means that veteran players want to play for him and young players will listen to him. Particularly on defense, which is switching to the 3-4 from the 4-3, the Chiefs already look vastly improved under Pioli. An upgrade has also been made at quarterback. Kansas City appears to be in good hands. The Chiefs are not a playoff team yet, but they may not be too far away.
Most Exploitable Weakness: Offensive Weapons - In 2008, the Chiefs were historically bad at getting to the quarterback, notching just ten sacks on the season. That number should go way up with personnel additions and the philosophy switch to the 3-4. Whereas that may not be as much of a weakness as last season, Kansas City may have actually downgraded its offensive weapons. Dwayne Bowe should be a Pro Bowl-caliber wide receiver with wide receiver guru Todd Haley at head coach and a better quarterback. Larry Johnson can still be effective when healthy and free of off-field issues. And Jamaal Charles is an intriguing talent. But that's all the Chiefs have. They traded away future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez, leaving them with no pass-catching threat at tight end. Every running back and all of the wide receivers behind Bowe have major injury histories and obvious holes in their games. Todd Haley has an extremely tough task ahead of him if he hopes to rebuild this offense like the one he had last season as offensive coordinator in Arizona.
Closest Game: Denver Broncos (Week 13) - This begins the final run for the Chiefs as they end the year with five games against teams we predict to finish below .500. Defeating a divisional opponent at home could provide the Chiefs with some big time momentum to carry throughout December.
