We all know that the Minnesota Vikings have been struggling with their passing attack in 2010. The quest to fix that problem took an unlikely turn with the return of arguably the greatest receiver ever to put on purple, Randy Moss.
The whys and hows and whats of the trade may never be sorted out, but we can definitely look at both teams — and Moss — and get a sense of what the impact will be on the football field. Having tracked it all since the start of the 2008 season, we feel like we might have some unique perspective in what is the most-covered NFL news event of the year.
The Vikings have gone after Moss in the hope that he can give them what Sidney Rice did last season. The Patriots obviously don’t think they need what Moss can bring, getting a third-round pick for a player that has scored exactly fifty touchdowns in his fifty-two games as a Patriot.
For Minnesota, Rice was Brett Favre‘s safety net — if he was in trouble, he could throw it to Rice, and Rice would make something happen. Favre has said himself that Rice allowed him to throw it to him even if he was covered, and not having him in the lineup this season goes a long way to explaining why Favre has already thrown more picks than he had by Week 14 last season.
This is the key to the Moss trade. Rice gave the Vikings what Moss gave them before he was traded away in 2005 — the ability to make a quarterback look better than he is by fighting for a ball in the air, and keeping it away from defenders.
Does Moss still have that ability?
Moss: Breaking him down
On the surface, Moss and Rice look like they had similar seasons last year. They saw a similar number of snaps, were separated by fewer than 60 receiving yards in the regular season, and had only one catch separating them. The difference came in how those catches came about. Rice received a PFF grade of +22.0 for his receiving work, Moss just +7.2.
Rice was thrown at 120 times in the ’09 regular season and only one interception came from those throws. Moss was thrown at 15 times more, but seven interceptions came from the throws intended for Moss.
The only players in the NFL to have more interceptions recorded when they were the primary target were Calvin Johnson (12), Carolina’s Steve Smith (11), Antonio Bryant (10), Reggie Wayne (10), and Terrell Owens (eight). Four of those five players were playing with quarterbacks (or multiple quarterbacks) who threw for 19 or more interceptions on the season. Tom Brady threw 13 interceptions last season, which means more than half of them were intended for Moss.
Of those 138 targets, Rice dropped just three balls last season. Moss dropped eight. In 2008 he dropped 11, and this season he has already registered a drop in each of his opening four games. Moss is no longer a safe target for quarterbacks looking to get rid of the ball; if anything, he is becoming more of a risk as time goes on.
Much was made of Moss getting off of Revis Island in Week 2 this season with a beautiful one-handed catch for a touchdown, but that doesn’t tell the story of that game. Moss was thrown at 10 times, recorded just one 4-yard reception outside of that touchdown, and dropped a ball. Not only that, but Brady was picked off twice in the game when throwing towards Moss.
This season, Moss has been thrown at 23 times, and recorded just nine receptions. His yards-per-reception average remains healthy at 15.4, but just three plays account for 101 of his 139 yards. His average yards per target is a flimsy 6.04 yards. The first big catch came on a quick screen against the Bengals in Week 1. The second was that one-handed catch over Revis against the Jets in Week 2. Without taking anything away from a spectacular catch, Revis was visibly troubled by his hamstring, and the Jets have since suggested there was a blown coverage on that play. His longest play from scrimmage this season was a 35-yard touchdown against the Buffalo Bills, beating coverage from Reggie Corner in the slot. Moss lined up outside with Aaron Hernandez behind him, and Corner never got into a good position, trailing the play the entire way.
How good has he been since 2007′s explosion?
We were only in our trial phase in 2007 when Moss and the Patriots had their legendary season, but there’s little doubt that he was one of the 10 best receivers in the game that year.
But judged solely by our rankings, Moss has been a good, not great, receiver since the 2008 season. In 2008, he graded 49th out of 111 qualifying players based on his performance in the passing game. In 2009, he ranked 22nd out of 107. Thus far in 2010, with Week 4 yet to be completely graded, he’s firmly in the bottom 20 percent of the league.
In 2008, he outproduced his raw standing. He ranked 19th in yards after the catch, 21st in yards. His obvious strength was touchdowns (11), and without interceptions being thrown his way (three), he produced like a top-1o wideout. However, the negatives were fairly clear. He dropped one out of every 10 passes, a very high number, and only forced four missed tackles, a very low one.