Euro 2012 Discussion

[Rudi]

Right idea, poor execution from an Italian newspaper

 

[Fappin Raptor]

And people think we're racist.

 

[kyhadley]

As I said in the chatbox, it's hard to pull off the racist back-handed compliment but they did it to perfection.

 

[NAHSTE]

And people think we're racist.

 

[kyhadley]

I can't believe Ronaldo didn't take the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and then most of all that fourth PK. How do you risk CR not taking a penalty? Insane.

 

[kyhadley]

"Injustiça"

I agree Ronaldo, I agree.

 

[calgaryballer]

Was thinking the same. However, I would not be surprised if that was a Ronaldo ego move. MOre damaging was the Alves/Nani mix up, Alves seemed all kinds of fucked up after

 

[Champ]

Fuck Spain

 

[1ke]

"Injustiça"

I agree Ronaldo, I agree.

Was thinking the same. However, I would not be surprised if that was a Ronaldo ego move. MOre damaging was the Alves/Nani mix up, Alves seemed all kinds of fucked up after

I agree with both. However, I think the gif shows how much this meant to Ron, and that it wasnt his choice. I dont know that for a fact, just a thought from the hurt in his face there.

Also, I dont mind the best player going 5th. Never have, never will.

First kick 86.6%
Second kick 81.7%
Third kick 79.3%
Fourth kick 72.5%
Fifth kick 80%

The team taking the first penalty wins 60% of shootouts. That’s because the team going second shoots under great pressure. They keep having to score just to stay in the game...

Few seem to know this initial advantage exists, says Palacios-Huerta. TV commentators rarely even mention the toss. Bookmakers don’t shift their odds immediately after the toss is done -- a mistake from which gamblers could benefit. And at Euro 2008, Italy’s captain, Gianluigi Buffon, may have decided the outcome of the tournament when he won the toss for a shootout against Spain and let the Spaniards shoot first. They won, of course, and then won the tournament, Palacios-Huerta wasn't necessarily thrilled. (He has a Spanish passport, but like most Basques, he is a strong regionalist and not a huge fan of Spain.

http://m.askmen.com/sports/fanatic_300/334_penalty-shootouts-how-to-win.html

These results highlight the increasing pressure as the competition progresses and may also highlight the ‘best player should go first’ fallacy. The idea of ‘getting off to a good start’ by putting the best penalty taker first appears wrong as there is least pressure on this kick.

The researchers looked at the percentage success rate of players of different positions. Attackers successfully convert 83.1% of their penalties, midfield players convert 79.6% and defenders convert 73.6%.

The length of time the players have been on the pitch is also important. If they have played 30 minutes of less, their success rate is 86.7%, although, of course, this might include the occasional substitution to put a good penalty taker on the pitch. Players who have played between 31 and 90 minutes successfully convert 81.9% of penalties, and players who play longer than 91 minutes, convert 80% of their chances.

Age also seems important with younger players doing better. Players aged 22 or younger successfully convert 85.2% of attempts. Those aged between 23 and 28 convert 77.6%, and those aged over 29 years convert 78.1%.

The researchers conclude their paper by stating that their results demonstrate that the results of the penalty shoot-outs are not a lottery. Their results demonstrate that there are marked and logical patterns that repeat themselves time and again. The authors adopt a psychological stance on their results and they suggest that stress and anxiety may be important explanatory factors.

If Fab misses his PK, then up steps Ron for everything. All the pressure would have been on him, the best player, as it should be.

 

[Rudi]

Absolutely CAN NOT take the chance that it is decided before the 5th kick. Ronaldo has to take one of those kicks. :smh:

 

[mgoblue2290]

Ronaldo certainly wasn't shying away. He wanted to be 5th and thought his teammates would put him in a position to take an important kick. If they make the 4th, then its all on Ronaldo with the 5th kick. The odds are usually for making a penalty. If he had gone 1st, 2nd or 3rd people would be complaining that he should've waited to go last. Guy played great all tournament and now he's getting ragged on for wanting the pressure of the 5th kick which he thought for sure would be on him.

 

[kyhadley]

Ronaldo certainly wasn't shying away. He wanted to be 5th and thought his teammates would put him in a position to take an important kick. If they make the 4th, then its all on Ronaldo with the 5th kick. The odds are usually for making a penalty. If he had gone 1st, 2nd or 3rd people would be complaining that he should've waited to go last. Guy played great all tournament and now he's getting ragged on for wanting the pressure of the 5th kick which he thought for sure would be on him.

No, they wouldn't. Regardless of the outcome, putting Ronaldo anywhere lower than 3rd is just a terrible managing decision. There is no more pressure on the 5th kick than the 1st, they are all equally important in deciding who wins.

You have to guarantee that Ronaldo takes a PK when you make that list. What's the point of saving him if you might not make it there?


Also I don't think anyone here is ragging on Ronaldo.

 

[mgoblue2290]

There can be a lot more pressure on the 5th than the 1st. Kicking 5th is much more likely to end up being a do or die situation than kicking 1st is. Obviously Portugal felt they were going to have the opportunity to kick 5th so they put Ronaldo there. They wanted there best player kicking for their fate. I get the argument for putting him 4th when it became apparent that Portugal really needed to make it, but if I'm setting the order before the shoot out has begun, I'd put Ronaldo 5th. Especially if I'm confident in my other penalty takers.

 

[1ke]

I posted the stats and the link on the study of PKs. Putting your best player 1st is the worst thing you can do. Putting him 5th where he gets all the pressure of his country is what he wanted. Cant fault him for that.

 

[Senser81]

I posted the stats and the link on the study of PKs. Putting your best player 1st is the worst thing you can do. Putting him 5th where he gets all the pressure of his country is what he wanted. Cant fault him for that.

I don't really understand that study you posted. What are the %'s attached to the shooting order?

It doesn't make any sense whatsoever to have your best player go 5th, because there is no guarantee that you will have 5 chances to shoot penalties. I guess there was a ton of pressure on Ronaldo yesterday, because he was in the 5th spot and he somehow had to produce 2 goals on 1 shot. Good choice by the manager to put his best player in the most pressurized situation.

It reminds me of baseball managers who don't bring in their best relief pitcher until the bottom of the 9th.

I think Michael Ballack had the best take on the situation (as usual)...Ronaldo is the superstar, if he wants to go first he goes first. I think its a bit on Ronaldo not to put himself in that situation and blame the coach/teammates.

Overall, I thought the game was disappointing. Maybe my expectations were too high. Neither team had a quality striker. Spain screwed around then only started to play in extra time, and Portugal still couldn't do anything.

 

[NAHSTE]

Saving Ronaldo for the "if necessary" slot reminded me of when managers refuse to use their closer in a tie game on the road. You're saving your best player for a situation which may not even exist.

 

[Champ]

Bravi ragazzi!!

 

[Champ]

 

[PP]

I am sad. Both teams I hate are in the final. Germany with a real let down of a game today.

 

[Rudi]

I hate Champ but I love me some Mario Balotelli. So go Italy in the Final :shifty: